Anyone know if Vermont still has the law where the state legislature picks the Gov if no one gets >50%?

I think it's a pretty bad law, but it's worth knowing if it's still on the books.  

And thanks for my first hat-tip!

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

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by: Darth Jeff @ Thu Feb 18, 2010 at 05:24:17 AM UTC

Yes, it does.

At least the Leg. hasn't been very inclined to abuse it over the years, which is why I think it stays. Generally, the Leg. just certifies whoever got the most votes. The only exception was an election in the seventies when the Republican-controlled legislature voted for the Republican even though the Dem had slightly more votes because the Dem got caught in a scandal during the election and ended up melting down and quitting politics a few months later. Generally, though, it's a small enough state that the Leg. behaves itself.  

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by: notanothersonofabush @ Thu Feb 18, 2010 at 13:01:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Does anyone know what fundraising is looking like among dem nominees?

I'm curious if Markowitz is leading the primary in name rec and money since there aren't primary numbers.  

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Thu Feb 18, 2010 at 06:55:27 AM UTC

No way to know unless they report it to the press

The first filing deadline for campaign finance reports isn't until August:

http://vermont-elections.org/e...

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Thu Feb 18, 2010 at 13:12:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

She led in the 1st fundraising reports

But that was back in July 2009 -- she had raised about $200,000, and Racine had raised about $100,000.  (They were the only candidates who had been in the race or fundraising significantly at that point, which was before Douglas announced he wasn't running.)

Both totals were considered very solid for that point in the campaign (fundraising traditionally starts late and is relatively small compared to many other states).

Of the 5 Democratic candidates, Markowitz, Racine and Shumlim probably have the hight name recognition, followed by Dunne and then Bartlett.

The primary really is wide-open, with 5 major candidates, it really will become a ground game for turnout in a summer Democratic primary.

Deb Markowitz is in a solid position because of her state-wide history and is set apart to some degree as a non-legislator and a woman (she was just endorsed by Emily's list). Because the SoS position doesn't tend to get involved in as many controversial political debates, she is probably less defined issue-wise than the other candidates.

Racine has the distinction of having beaten Dubie in a statewide race (for Lt Gov, in 2000 - both Shumlin and Dunne have lost Lt Gov races to Dubie). He is fairly well know for serving as Lt. Gov,, for barely losing to Racine for Gov in 2002, and for going back to serving in state Senate from Chittenden County (the state's largest). He has a lot of support from many of the Democratic issue groups and activists, and probably is the best positioned to get support from the state's Progressive Party.  Some observers say he is the front-runner for the nomination, but that isn't universally viewed as the case. (Full disclosure, I strongly support his candidacy - I think he'd be both the best candidate and best governor of the bunch).

Shumlin is pretty high profile by virtue of being a legislative leader (he was key last year in obtaining over-rides of Governor Douglas's vetos of the state budget and of same-sex marriage, and he is currently leading the effort to de-license the controversial Vermont Yankee nuclear plant). His geographic base in the southern part of the state might be valuable in the primary.  He didn't jump into the race until after Douglas pulled out, so he lost a little early fundraising ground to Markowitz and Racine. He is definitely one of the top 3 current contenders.

Matt Dunne is basing his campaign on being a new-style younger politician. He was a State Rep, ran Americorps for a couple of years under President Clinton, came back to Vermont an was elected to State Senate in 2002, and lost to Dubie for Lt Gov in 2006. After that he went to work for Google and is projecting an image as a high tech, youth-oriented, leader.

Susan Bartlett is probably the least known of the 5, representing a small county in the state Senate and never having run statewide before. She hasn't raised a great deal of money so far in the campaign. To the surprise of some, she has received extremely good reviews for her appearances in front of the various candidate fora held so far. Because of her role as chair of the Appropriations Committee, she will be high profile as the legislature wrestles with a large financial short-fall (however, it may or may not be a good thing, as budget cuts could alienate many constituencies.) She is going to need to prove she can raise enough money and put together a campaign structure in order to be taken seriously in a multi-candidate primary against more experienced candidates.

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The legislature has just voted to move the primary from mid-September to late August (to comply with federal law for oversees voting). This means that the primary will probably be even lower turnout, so organization will become even more important. Anyone could take it with as little as 25,000- 35,000  votes in a primary turnout probably under 100,000.

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by: terje @ Thu Feb 18, 2010 at 18:17:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

a few things

1. Thank you for FINALLY polling our gov race.
2. no primary poll?  I hope it's coming in the next few days, otherwise this is a horrible tease.
3. once again it shows that we vermonters like us some divided guvmint.
4. we do still have that law where if no candidate gets a majority it goes to the legs, but it's NEVER used.  the legs is  afraid to pull the trigger and only a no shot like indy/prog Anthony Pollina or last shot like shumlin/racine would dare get elected like that. it was only used once, on a lt govt candidate in the 50's or 60's. he lost 2 years later.
5. the markowitz and racine numbers are not surprising as she's a 12 year statewide incumbent and he's a former lt govt, nor are bartletts as an outsider/nobody. dunne's doing better than i thought and shumlin polls rather weak for someone who's been on the state scene since the 90's as minority leader then sen pro temp.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

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by: doug_tuttle @ Thu Feb 18, 2010 at 07:25:14 AM UTC

Thanks by this poll.

I hope some of this candidates rethink their goals and think in other statewide offices.

Vermont need a new Secretary of State, and need to a new Auditor of Accounts. No-one of they will challenge T Salmon?

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by: abgin @ Thu Feb 18, 2010 at 12:00:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I lived in Vermont from 1989-2004 and again from 2008-2009.

Frankly, I think Markowitz is a fine SoS, and Vermont doesn't "need" a new one. She actually is proactive and does her job well, and I wish the same could be said of her campaign, which has been pretty hit or miss.

Salmon, of course, is a complete train wreck, and I expect that someone will run against him eventually. The problem is that nobody knows what an Auditor of Accounts even does, and it's hardly the prestigious position that Gov is - in fact, I believe it's the lowest ranking statewide office on the ballot, and generally considered a dead-end job. Except for the Ready/Brock race in 2004 - in which Ready massively screwed up and got pasted by a carpetbagger from Fidelity who himself lost to Salmon two years later - Auditor isn't exactly considered an important race in most years.  

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by: notanothersonofabush @ Thu Feb 18, 2010 at 13:06:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Vermont will need a new SoS if Markowitz continues the bid governor

The office will be open surely, and I think the list of candidates need improve.

About T Salmon, I think Democratic Party should punish his behavior with a strong challenge. If Democratic Party leave survive T Salmon he will be the next republican candidate for Governor or Senate.

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by: abgin @ Thu Feb 18, 2010 at 14:26:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Lt. Gov

I believe he said when he switched that he would run for Governor or Lt. Gov, whichever Dubie did not run for.  

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by: GOPVOTER @ Thu Feb 18, 2010 at 23:47:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Color me unsurprised.

Dubie is massively, massively popular with the state's moderate/conservative voters. You see about 3 or 4 Dubie bumper stickers for every Douglas sticker basically anywhere in the state that you go. Most of them won't question his background or conservatism unless he massively messes up, which VT's complicit media probably won't report on.

Also, there are too damn many Dems in the primary this year, not one of whom could be bothered to run against Douglas when he was actually vulnerable or against Symington - who turned out to be one of the worst gubernatorial candidates in US history - in the primary. The good news is that the Leg finally got around to moving up the primary a couple of days ago, but it's likely that Douglas will veto the bill, so the impact is still uncertain.

Typical for Vermont Democrats, they have a perfect shot at actually winning, and they'll probably blow it because of the usual combination of spinelessness and ego politics. Sigh. The problem also is a lot of these undecided voters are probably waiting to see if Pollina or another Prog gets in again because they're normally too pure to vote for a Democrat. And this is how Republicans keep winning in a state where Obama has a 65% approval rating. Sigh.

Also, Racine is done. He pulled a Coakley and took a vacation when he should've been out campaigning, and now his opponents have taken all of his oxygen. I was an early supporter of his, but now I think he should quit. Shumlin is an egomaniac who already lost the Lite Guv race in 2002, and nobody knows or cares who Bartlett is. Dunne is pretty cool and I'd love to see a guy from the next generation get in for a change, but I doubt it'll happen in the state that has the largest percentage of voters over 50 in the country. Markowitz is a great SoS but I've always been a little skeptical of her gubernatorial campaign. I still think she's the best shot against Dubie, though, at least for the moment.  

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by: notanothersonofabush @ Thu Feb 18, 2010 at 13:16:54 PM UTC

Well:

That fact surprises me (and this is coming from a native Vermonter), the one where you say that we have the largest percentage of voters over 50 in the country. I thought it was Maine. I've been to some of the northernmost parts in Maine and I can tell you that there are a ton of people up there who are 65+.

And you're right, the media in Vermont is just plain awful when it comes to reporting politics. Ask my hometown newspaper, the Bennington Banner. They hardly ever report anything anymore!

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by: jsrosa @ Thu Feb 18, 2010 at 14:06:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Also:

I always wondered - when it comes to statewide elections in VT, why is it that we Dems always have problems when it comes to the Gov and Lt. Gov races? We never seem to have this phenomenon with US Senate or House races, as the incumbents usually have token Republican opposition.

On a side note - as I've said before, I come from Bennington County, in the southwestern part of the state. If you're running statewide, even if you win both Bennington and Windham Counties by wide margins that still won't be enough to put you over the top as they're not really population centers.

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by: jsrosa @ Thu Feb 18, 2010 at 14:18:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think you're off base on some of this

Dubie's support is wide and shallow -- he comes off like a good friendly guy, but he has NEVER had to address serious issues in his campaigns, and he isn't going to hold up well under the additional scrutiny he will get running for a higher profile race like Governor. His social conservativism, his lack of ideas, and his basic vacuousness will be apparent (even in a state with a generally weak press).

He leads in the this poll, but getting to 50% is going to be very very difficult for him - I suspect he tops out for Governor at around 43-45% in a general election campaign.

-
In terms of the moved primary, it passed by overwhelming margin in both houses, so even if Douglas vetoes, it will be overridden and become law.

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It is very clear that Pollina is not going to get into the governor's race, and the Progressive party has indicated little interest in running a candidate. Whoever the Democratic nominee is will have pretty much a 1 on 1 shot against Dubie in terms of major candidates (as always, there will be numerous minor parties and independents of both the left and right on the ballot).

But Democrats haven't lost to Douglas because of a divided Dem/Prog vote -- with the exception of his first election, Douglas has been elected with a majority each time. The Progs haven't cost Democrats the Governorship - it has been Douglas's genuine (and inexplicable to me) cross-over appeal.
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I don't get your extreme hostility to the entire Democratic field. It isn't surprising that in a blue state that there are multiple candidates running when the governorship comes open. So far they haven't been trying to destroy each other, and I suspect that they will run a fairly respectful campaign that won't leave the eventual nominee damaged.

Racine hasn't "pulled a Coakley" -- she took a vacation after her primary and only a few weeks before the general election. Racine's "vacation" was well over a year before the primary -- and he certainly hasn't lost the oxygen to his opponents. In fact, he has been using the time extremely well, putting together a solid campaign organization, meeting with local activists throughout the state, fundraising, and preparing for a long campaign. Far from being "done" he is extremely well positioned for the primary and general. There is no reason for him to quit - he is very much at the front of the pack with Markowitz right now, and is running an extremely active and effective campaign. He's also distinguished himself from the rest of the field by offering a clearer approach to the state budget crisis than any of the others. Not sure what you've been looking at to think that his campaign is in trouble, but that isn't what I hear from party activists or friends in the media.

As for Shumlin being an "egomaniac" - we're talking about politicians here, they all are. In this case, it may help him as he's more aggressive than most of the others about getting his name out there in the public eye. He's been a pretty effective Senate leader - a lot has changed for him since he lost for LTGov in 2002. I'm not a Shumlin supporter, but you're dismissing him way prematurely.

Dunne has a lot of potential, but he has to develop his campaign message to be something more than "I'm young, I work for Google, I ran Americorps." He really hasn't staked out any issue territory to distinguish himself from the rest of the field, and he is going to have to show he has substance if he wants to develop traction in the race.

I'm not sure why Susan Bartlett is running, but she has been receiving strong reviews for many of her performances in candidate debates and appearances.  She is clearly hoping to stake out territory as the wonkiest, most substantive of the candidates - and in a 5 candidate primary there may be room for a candidate like that to win. But she's got to raise money, improve her name ID and put together a solid campaign structure if she wants that to work - and I don't see it happening. I think she'd be a better LtGov or Auditor candidate, but don't see her going that way.

As for Markowitz, I'm hearing mixed reviews about her on the campaign trail, but there is no question she is well positioned-- high name ID, EMILY's list, good fundraising, etc. Because she hasn't been part of most of the contentious political issues in the state, she is going to have to prove she can talk about issues like budget etc. Right now I think the primary is between her and Racine, and she has a lot of potential against Dubie.

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by: terje @ Thu Feb 18, 2010 at 18:56:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Small states often elect governors on personality

Think Freudenthal in Wyoming and Lingle in Hawaii.

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by: gs @ Thu Feb 18, 2010 at 20:26:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes and no

Yes, personality is often important in small states, but can be in medium and large ones too (think Arnold in California, Rell in Connecticut, Sebelius in Kansas,  Beshear in Kentucky, Romney or Weld in Massachusetts, Christie in NJ, Pataki in NY, Henry in Oklahoma, Carcieri in RI, Bredesen in Tennessee...)

But the governors who win counter to their state's partisan lean tend to be very well suited ideologically to their state. Lingle is a moderate Republican (pro-choice, somewhat green, etc) and Freudenthal is a fairly conservative Democrat.

Because they deal with the realities of actually running a state apparatus, they tend to be less tied to partisan ideology than federal politicians are (and voters are more open to crossing party lines to elect them).

And voters in small states tend to value competence -- we see our politicians up close and know them well enough to have a pretty good idea of how they would function as chief executive.  

That is an area where Dubie is going to have a really big sell -- he really doesn't know much about how state government work (an argument that couldn't be made against Jim Douglas). Dubie has been a part-time LtGov (he was actively and publicly job hunting out of state at various times in past terms), and hasn't really been involved in any major issue (other than gathering signatures on a petition to tighten laws against child sex offenders).

At a time the state is in a severe fiscal crisis, he is going to have to demonstrate some understanding of the big issues he would face as governor. That lack of depth, coupled with his right wing views on social issues (much further right than Douglas) will throw up huge barriers to him in the general election.

Could Dubie win? Sure. But odds will favour the Democratic nominee.

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by: terje @ Thu Feb 18, 2010 at 21:20:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Bartlett for America!!

Sorry...couldn't resist the West Wing reference.  Seriously though, I think we can pick this up.  We could honestly pick up 3 governorships in New England (VT, CT, RI).  With Hawaii,  Arizona, Minnesota, and California in play, this could mitigate almost certain losses in OK, TN and KS and a number of other tough states (IA, PA, MI)

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by: liberal intellectual @ Thu Feb 18, 2010 at 13:28:09 PM UTC

Yeah, this race is a bonifide Toss-Up

Note that against all of the candidates, Dubie can't get out of the mid-teens among Dems; it's the Independents which would potentially swing enough in his way to win this thing. His best # here is 48% - perhaps enough to outright score victory if the usual "VT Independent" and Green candidates swarm the ballot.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

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by: andyroo312 @ Thu Feb 18, 2010 at 14:04:08 PM UTC