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IN-Sen: Bayh Will Retire

by: James L.

Mon Feb 15, 2010 at 11:17 AM EST


Unbelievable:

Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) will not seek a 3rd term in the Senate next year, according to a Dem source, handing Dems yet another setback as they struggle to salvage their damaged ship.

Bayh, elected statewide 5 times, will become the 5th Senate Dem not to seek another term. His decision to step aside , first reported by The Fix and confirmed to Hotline OnCall, creates an open seat in IN, a usually-red state that broke the mold in '08 by voting narrowly for Pres. Obama. [...]

Update: The filing deadline is tomorrow, not Friday, as we wrote earlier. Dem sources say Ellsworth is the candidate most likely to jump into the contest.

UPDATE: What a wiener:

"Two weeks ago, the Senate voted down a bipartisan commission to deal with one of the greatest threats facing our nation: our exploding deficits and debt. The measure would have passed, but seven members who had endorsed the idea instead voted 'no' for short-term political reasons," he said. "Just last week, a major piece of legislation to create jobs - the public's top priority - fell apart amid complaints from both the left and right. All of this and much more has led me to believe that there are better ways to serve my fellow citizens, my beloved state4 and our nation than continued service in Congress."

Bayh needs to fork over all $13 million of his war chest over to the DSCC, stat.

UPDATE: With the filing deadline tomorrow, Democrats must submit 500 signatures per CD for their replacement candidate to qualify for the ballot. Not sure how Dems can swing this, or if there are any loopholes they can exploit to get someone else on the ballot.

LATER UPDATE: Just to clear up a bit of confusion -- if you check out page 16 of this PDF, you'll see that candidates first have to file a declaration of candidacy. The deadline to do that is tomorrow. Having done that, the candidate has to file their petitions by the 19th.

REPLACEMENT UPDATE: So here's the deal: if no candidate files, the Indiana Democratic Party will get to select a replacement for Bayh by committee. However, Bayh does have a Democratic challenger right now: Tamyra d'Ippolito. Democrats are hoping that she won't be able to gather enough signatures in time in order to make the ballot.
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IN-Sen: Bayh Will Retire | 186 comments
THis
seat would have been fu$%ing safe if he choose to run for re-election but no, he was too afraid and lazy of even trying to run. People like him, Beau Biden, and others made me sick. WTF is Emanuel doing???  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
Crap the man didn't need to campaign
And still win, it's not like this race was a tossup according to the recent polls. WTF is Emanuel doing should be changed to WTF is Melendez doing.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Bayh
is scum, he is an abomination, he is vile, he is filth, and he is now going to go make millions in the private sector. My hands are shaking do to rage, and I think I may throw up. Although this is not like Delaware, Ellsworth could win, although with Bayh out of the way Pence may jump in. I HATE EVAN BAYH!!!!!!  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Would
any of the house dems even want to run? They have like 3 full days to get signatures and they would fisk their safer house seats for a senate run. AT this point we'll be lucky to just get a candidate in.  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
[ Parent ]
Yeah but Senate is easy
While their house seat might be safer (and with Hill I doubt it is) when will any of them have an easier path to the Senate? No Democratic opposition and no real Republican opposition not that Pence is not running. Ellsworth entering would lock this up for the Dems. We'd most likely lose his house seat which is R+8 but he'd have to be a huge favorite in a Pence less Senate race.
[ Parent ]
So much for the accuracy of Research 2000 polls
Bayh up 20%? LOL. Total BS.
Other polls showed him up as well
So you can stop your vendetta towards R2K.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Only other poll was Rasmussen
No way Bayh was up 20% and Research 2000 polls have become crap.
[ Parent ]
Wrong
Ras did not poll Bayh-Coats.  And what is the basis for R2K polls being crap?  They have been in the ballpark for the special elections that they have polled.  No great shakes but hardly crap.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
They showed Coakley up a week before than election...
By 15 points. Crisitunity i think even said he thinks they lean Dem
[ Parent ]
That
was an odd election. You basically had a competitive race that usually happens over a span of months, and compressed it into a week. Gees, I maybe a Democrat, but I want to read Scott Brown's memoir, if only for the what was going behind the scenes that last week.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
No they didn't
Boston Globe/UNH had Coakley up 15 about two weeks before. R2K had her up 8 a week before and tied a couple of days before.

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
You are misremembering
R2K showed Coakley up 8 six days prior to the election, and then a tie two days prior to the election.  That was the extent of their polls of that race.

I would think R2K has a slight D house effect at the end of the day.  Very respectable pollster though.  

"Crap" I reserve for the Zogby online polls of the world, and that weird mail-in poll in Ohio.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Boy
we really beat the shit out of that comment.  Way to pile on guys!  Although I'm sure GOPVOTER, who is a stand up guy, is only misremembering and not purposefully propogating bullshit.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
No
that was the only Bayh-Coats poll, which makes the comment even less warranted.  There's nothing to compare it to, and it's idle speculation that Bayh's exit is based on mystery polling that is inconsistent with R2K.    

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
I know that
But I was referring to the Ras poll that showed up up againist Mike Pence, who decided not to run. That'a what I was referring to but I don't believe the R2K poll is crap.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
I read the news today oh, boy
About a lucky man who made the grade
And though the news was rather sad
Well, I just had to laugh

Seriously though, what a goddamn coward. Not a hundredth of a man his father is/was.  

how can anyone collect signatures
to qualify for the ballot by tomorrow?

Are we stuck running a write-in?

What?
I don't understand why Bayh would step down, he was still favored to hold the seat against Coates or any other Republican. Either he not motivated enough for a real campaign   or was looking for an exit anyway. The Senate will lose a good man, and I am speaking as someone leaning Republican.  
"or was looking for an exit anyway"
I take that one, the shill couldn't wait to get on all those corporate boards.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Well, you should like him then...
...since Bayh practically was a Republican. The only Dem Senator to the right of Bayh is Ben Nelson, who is roughly as popular as the plague with the Dem base right now. And really, that's only because Bayh moved left briefly when he was thinking about running for President.

But at least by retiring he'll get to spend more time with his lobbyists....er, family. I meant family.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Lierberman and Lincoln
Lieberman and Lincoln have both been right of Bayh this term. Traditionally Lieberman hasn't been but since his favorite Senator lost to Obama he's moved further and further right.

Nelson is conservative but he'll sell out his morals to get re-elected. Lieberman and Bayh love being attack and vilified by the base, Nelson just does it to stay in office.

[ Parent ]
I apoligize in advance, but
as an Indiana Republican, I must confess I am doing a happy dance this morning.
WHOPEE!! Good for freakin you


22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Before anyone writes this seat off...
As long as Ellsworth jumps in, he'll be a strong candidate. The Repubs currently running are pretty weak. The Coats roll-out has been a disaster. And the looming filing deadline makes it hard for the Repubs to get another candidate in the race.

The Repubs currently running are pretty weak.
Enter Mike Pence.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Also, keep this in mind
From MSNBC

"Since petitions due tomorrow, there will be a vacancy and because of that there's a way for the party to name the candidate afterwards," the Democratic official said, adding, "And don't forget how weak the Republican field is right now. Coats now damaged goods, and there's no Mitch Daniels running."  

[ Parent ]
Wasn't aware of the vacancy provision
And I'd feel pretty good about, say, Hill/Ellsworth/Donnelly v. Coats.

The absolute best race would be Ellsworth v. Hostettler Mk. II though!

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Phew
At least it seems we'll have a candidate...eventually, somehow....which is something of a relief.

I'd say if we were to rank them, Ellsworth has to be the #1 choice, especially with Hill setting his sights on Governor in 2012 (as he's already declared). Donnelly's probably next, yes?

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
But if Pence jumps in
It turns into a safe GOP seat which I would change the leaning to.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Pence is a good candidate
Don't get me wrong, but for all the talk about him as a Senate candidate, he's not a John Hoeven (or an Evan Bayh, for that matter) with established statewide popularity. Even Hill has more experience in state-level campaigns than Pence does. Wouldn't rate Pence v. any of the three Dem congressmen as anything other than tossup. At least hypothetically.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Daniels would turn it into a safe seat
But I don't think Pence would.  
[ Parent ]
I'm not even convinced Daniels would
I'd put it at Leans R in that case, but Daniels has some weaknesses too. It wasn't all that long ago when it seemed like he was going to have some problems winning reelection, at least, until Jill Long Thompson blew it. But yeah, better Pence than Daniels.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
I
bet JLT runs now, then I would definitely put the seat at likely republican.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Likely?
I think you mean Safe R.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
At
a election night party I met someone who had worked on her 2002 Congressional election, and he said that she was basically crazy, and he described her as "The Catherine Harris of the democratic party".  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Ouch
That's pretty damning.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
OK, that was the first funny thing I've read or thought about this whole mess!

[ Parent ]
Yeah but he's not
Too bad he's not getting in.
[ Parent ]
hopefully
Having very little knowledge of Indiana election law, I'm not sure how it would all work, but it seems to me that Bayh should be able to run in the primary as a stand in, allowing the state committee to select a new nominee after he drops out.  Hopefully he does that for us, because I don't see any way we can convince somebody to run and then get enough signatures by the deadline.  Anyone know if Bayh running in the primary as a stand in wouldn't work?
[ Parent ]
Can't appoint a canidate if someone's already there
Apparently there is a Dem who is pretty close to getting the 4500 names on the petition, problem is I bet no one in Indiana knows who Tamyra d'Ippolito is.    
[ Parent ]
Hell...
I'm a political junkie and have no clue who the woman is. What does she even do?

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
She's a random progressive activist
Having seen her website, Democrats look like they would do better to carpetbag Martha Coakley for the gig.
[ Parent ]
Every state needs to have a policy like Wisconsin's
If the incumbent decides to drop out without giving notice at least two weeks before the election, the filing deadline is automatically extended for three days for that race.  

They are allowed to file that statement and then change their mind and run anyway, but this law at least minimizes the chances of stuff like this happening.  One loophole is that it wouldn't prevent what Rodney Alexander did in 2004--where he switched parties at the last minute.  Wisconsin State Rep. Jeff Wood switched parties from Republican to Independent on filing day and the GOP had to do a write-in campaign.  

I wonder if anyone is even going to run in Ellsworth's seat now, or if they will just punt until 2012.  

I guess if Mark Hanna's comment is correct above
then maybe this isn't that big of a deal after all.  Wisconsin, on the other hand, has no such provision.  
[ Parent ]
Agree
I like that idea.  I also think it should be extended to a candidate who has filed with the FEC/state filing authorities as one party but qualifies to run as a candidate for another party.  Remember Rodney Alexander filing at the last minute as a Republican?

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
I hate
to make things worse, but there is 7 inches of snow on the ground with more expected right now in the 9th, Baron Hill will be filing for re-election by mail for the first time do to the bad weather. So that makes collecting signatures even more fun. I HATE EVAN BAYH!!!!  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
Dude, this sucks
I'm sorry for you, especially, man. Today would be a crappy day to be a Hoosier Dem.

But hey, bright side: a year from now your Senator WON'T be Evan Bayh. And he might even still be a Democrat!

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Fuck you, Evan Bayh.
In addition to being a douche during your tenure as a Senator, now you pack up days before the filing deadline!  I can't believe anyone would have ever thought you should be president or vice-president.  Anyone other than yourself and maybe your wife.

Good riddance.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

Coward.
No other word for it.  His dad ran against giants.  He took a Republican institution in the long serving Homer Capehart.  He ran against Luger the most popular man ever in Indiana.  He ran against William Ruckelshaus who you may remember for the Saturday Night Massacre.  He was a David who stood up for hwat he believed in and slayed giants.

Evan runs away when for the first time since he originally ran for Governor he faces a non-token but still far from dazzling retreat that he already beat once.

And waiting until just before the filing deadline?  That's hubris of a man who views himself as "indispensible."  He wants to show the world that only his magnificent self could win by undermining whoever might want to run in his stead.  And with the file deadline so close.  Here's a thought.  Even if you get Brad Ellsworth to run.  Who runs for Brad's seat?

A final kick in the shins from a spineless politician who rolled over for Bush or whoever else questioned his manhood.

You actually did have a shot at becoming President.  That is now over.  Enjoy retirement with Blanche Lincoln and Harry Reid.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

Man if Reid retired
...and gave his campaign stash to Dems like Bayh FRICKING SHOULD Dems would be rolling in cash with no candidates to spend it on....while the Republicans have a bazillion candidates and no cash...THAT would be a switch.

This is a weird election cycle.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
I couldn't agree more
My thoughts on hearing the news on WCBS News Radio here in New York:

(1) The Democrats really fucked up now
(2) The Democratic Party is in disarray
(3) The Will Rogers quote, which I may make my sig:

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat."

(4) This is a final "fuck you" to the Democratic Party from Bayh.

Fuck you, Evan Bayh. You defame the memory of your father, a great liberal Senator. May you live the rest of your life in obscurity. But I doubt he will. He will be appearing as some kind of "expert" on political shows and will make a lot of money as a lobbyist, college president or something.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
A bet
100 bucks to anyone that a year from now Bayh is on the board of 4 fortune 500 companies and that he took a total of $1 million from each of the 4 as a Senator.

The bought Senator cycle continues...

[ Parent ]
Also
Also 100 bucks he's on the board of Wellpoint, Indiana's biggest health care network.

My other guesses are Catepillar or Deere, Exxon or another oil company, Wal Mart and Goldman Sachs.

[ Parent ]
Mrs. Bayh is on the board of Wellpoint
And previously, she was an attorney for Eli Lilly.

Talk about being in bed with the health care industry.

[ Parent ]
I
bet he runs for Governor in 2012. I remember at the state convention he told us that his favorite job was being Governor, and that being a Senator is nice, but he will always be a Governor at heart. I may just support Becky Skillman if he is our nominee.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
I don't even live in IN and I support that idea
Hell I give the lady money if it meant from keeping Evan out of office.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Baron Hill
Why would Bayh resign so early to run for Governor, yet not early enough to make big bucks as a lobbyist or some or shady private sector job?

Hill's already been pretty explicit about running for Governor in 2012, right? With Bayh's unpopularity with the Dem base, couldn't Hill beat him? It's not like Hill's some pushover, he's as battle-tested as anyone with the perennial Sodrel battles.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Bayh
 is hated among netroots, but sadly netroots make up very little of Indiana's electorate, and Bayh is mega popular among most rural dems. If he runs in 2012 then he is a sure thing in the primary.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Primary, maybe
But what about the GE? Got to win both elections to win office obviously.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
I would say that he would probably win
He is for some reason super popular among everyone but netroots, and he would probably get it. Although I would say that he is probably not going to do it, and he will go to the private sector and steal, I mean make, millions.

I HATE EVAN BAYH!!!!!!

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Filing deadline is Friday
not tomorrow - not sure where you got that impression

Easier to gather signatures in 4 days than in 1, but still a challenge.

But the deadline to file for certification is tomorrow
IN-SoS:

A candidate may submit a petition for certification to the county voter registration office no earlier than Monday, January 4, 2010, and no later than 12:00 noon, local prevailing time, on Tuesday, February 16, 2010. (IC 3-8-2-8 and IC 3-8-2-10)

As far as I can tell, you have to meet that deadline first, and then get your petitions in on the 19th.

[ Parent ]
There
has to be a loop hole somewhere, no way anyone can get 500 signatures per district in the blizzard that is covering most of the state.

I HATE EVAN BAYH!!!!!!!

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Hypothetical Nightmare Situation
Some unknown schmuck (maybe even a Republican or Tea Partier) files for certification as the Dem candidate tomorrow, then hustles and gets the signatures by Friday, and no-one else does the same.  As I understand it, that person would be the unopposed Dem nominee for Senate.  Do I have that right?

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
OK now I see
from James L.'s update that the actual situation is even worse than my hypothetical nightmare.

Ms. Ippolito is close to getting the signature apparently, and appears to be a pretentious coffehouse type from the liberal college town of Bloomington.  

If she ends up being the candidate, it will be the most hilariously horrible Keystone Cops episode for the Dems yet this cycle, and that's saying something after Martha.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Fortune teller
Your nightmare just met with reality.  Meet Tamyra d'Ippolito.
[ Parent ]
Here's what the Indiana SoS says
The declaration of candidacy and certified petitions must be filed with the Election Division no earlier than Wednesday, January 20, 2010, and no later than 12:00 noon, Indianapolis time, on Friday, February 19, 2010.

http://www.in.gov/sos/election...

[ Parent ]
Dem ballot vacancy
Apparently if there's a Democratic ballot vacancy, the Democratic State Committee selects a candidate by June 30.
[ Parent ]
Bayh
was all set to file his paperwork for reelection too!

A Democratic aide said that Bayh must have made a last-minute personal decision not to run, noting that he had completed his candidacy paperwork, was polling well ahead of Coats and had $13 million in his campaign account.

Maybe he got wind of some lobbyist scandal that would hit him pretty soon so he decided to get out of the way before it did. Or maybe the NRSC recruited Mitch Daniels knowing Dan Coats was damaged goods. Same thing probably happened in North Dakota. Dorgan got advance word from Hoeven that he was about to jump in so Dorgan retired ahead of time.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

Well we will find out very soon, now will we
Your thoughts are probally right, only difference is we were saddened when Dorgan announced, Bayh retires and we cheer because the man is a shill not to mention a massive dick by making this move.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
I don't cheer
Yes, I strongly dislike him as a corporate stooge, but his being replaced by a Republican would certainly be worse. I am very angry at the bastard for doing this.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Wow
and to think, this man was almost our VP!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
I had the same thought when I first read this n/t


NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan
[ Parent ]
Ugh
Bayh is mad at "seven members who had endorsed the idea [but] instead voted 'no' for short-term political reasons", so he rewards them by giving his seat to another GOPer who'll do the same thing?
[ Parent ]
maybe he is tired of the BS going on in Washington
where nothing gets done without 60 votes and where the Democrats do not have 60 votes and will lose more in 2010.
Maybe he knew that Daniels will run or maybe he wants to be governor again. Who knows. There is a lot of love/hate relationship with this guy, some people love that he has the seat in Indiana but hate the idea of him. Well, those people got what they wished.  
[ Parent ]
Not quite like that...
I'm only speaking for myself here, but I like the fact that a Democrat holds an Indiana seat, Nebraska seat, etc. I like the fact that these Democrats vote with us more often than not. I just HATE when Democrats (like Bayh, Ben Nelson, and Dan Boren) not only vote against something they don't like (which they're entitled to do) but go out of their way to be douchy about it. Nobody wishes to hand the seat to a grossly-incompetent teabagger, but nobody likes it when Bayh and others criticize the Dems or give false reasons as to why they oppose a measure. Bipartisanship? Give me a break. Ron Wyden loves bipartisanship more than anything, yet he knows that sometimes you have to do it alone.

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan
[ Parent ]
The only person I would put in the category you describe is
Lieberman. Every other one I have not heard go out of their way to bash Democrats. I hate that we are losing Democrats and seats but maybe this will finally be a wake up call to the Obama administration to stop talking and get to work with Democrats, Republicans and independents on fixing the economy, lower the deficits, etc.  
[ Parent ]
You could be right
Regarding the President. They say Bill Clinton best years as President was 1995-2001 when his party didn't have the majority and had to listen to both parties and not his own so you could be right but still regardless of all of that I still hate losing seats.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
During those years
he signed the Gramm-Bliley Act, which deregulated Wall Street and helped bring about the disaster we have now. Some great years.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
And he signed the welfare reform act
And got us a surplus. Look i'm not saying everything he did was great and plus what I said about Clinton is not my opinion per se, it's what the pundits say. Personally I don't know if it was all true but most people will tell you the 90's was a better time to live in than the 00's.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Work with Republicans?
Sure, that would be great, if they hadn't made the strategic decision to OPPOSE EVERYTHING the Democrats propose, for purely partisan reasons. I can't believe you're not wise to that.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Dem VPs
Sadly he's not even our worst person who was almost VP!
[ Parent ]
No Kidding
Joe Lieberman or John Edwards -- take your pick!
[ Parent ]
WOW
Bayh is so bipartisan that he wants to hand the seat to the GOP.

This is certainly surprising, but I think if Ellsworth gets in we have a solid shot. I just wish Visclosky didn't have the corruption thing over his head as his seat in the House would have been infinitely easier to defend.

And I don't think Pence is willing to give up his coveted leadership position in the House to be a back-bencher in the Senate.

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

"Bayh is so bipartisan that he wants to hand the seat to the GOP"
I know ain't that sweet of him? So bi-partisan that he'll screw over his own party just to make a GOPer smile, I lovve his bi-partianship, he should of been our VP lol lol lol lol lol lol lol.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Bayh-Partisan


20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
IN SoS says filing deadline is 2/19
This Friday, at noon.  Where is Hotline getting info saying the deadline is tomorrow?

IN SoS Elections Page:

http://www.in.gov/sos/election...

28, Male, MI-09 (home), MD-07 (school)

There are two deadlines
One for certification (tomorrow), one for the petitions (Friday). See the update for more.
[ Parent ]
How delightfully confusing...
Thanks for the update though.  Much appreciated.

28, Male, MI-09 (home), MD-07 (school)
[ Parent ]
November chances
Disclaimer: This is the opinion of a Republican, so take with whatever amount of salt you choose.

I personally think that with the current environment, no other candidate for the Democrats have good chance.  My gut reaction is to rate this as somewhere between Lean GOP and Likely GOP, depending on how it shakes out.

Disclaimer: Coming from a center-left Democrat
You may be incorrect. I would say your right if say Elsworth says no but if he does I can see him beating Damage goods Dan Coats, wacko John Hostettler and nobody Martin Sultzman. Even some pol get lucky when years where there backs are againist the winds party wise like Mark Pryor or Kathleen Sebelius in '02 for example.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Meet Brad Ellsworth
Former sheriff, voted most beautiful man in DC by The Hill, and all around electoral badass. In 2006, he beat Hostettler (who may be the Repub nominee) by 61% to 39% with Hos as the incumbent(!). Two years later, he won 65-35 against a credible opponent.

In seat that's R+8.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
I don't think 2008 was a credible opponent
Given that as an Indiana Republican, I have no idea who it was.

That being said, if he can get 4500 signatures in the next 24 hours, he is probably the Democrats' best candidate

[ Parent ]
That being said, if he can get 4500 signatures in the next 24 hours, he is probably the Democrats' best candidate
Not to mention a darn magician as well.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
I have confidence Ellsworth could pull off the signature thing..
He just has to declare by tomorrow, and use some of this campaign cash to get people out there to do this by Friday.  
[ Parent ]
Some non-U.S. Rep. ideas for Dem candidates include
Jonathan Weinzapfel - Mayor of Evansville(2003 - present)

Tim Roemer - U.S. Representative, 1991 - 2003; member of 9/11 Commission; dark-horse 2008 Veep possibility; current Ambassador to India

Lee Hamilton - U.S. Representative, 1965 - 1999; member of 9/11 Commission; 1992 Veep finalist; Obama Homeland Security advisor

Joe Kernan - Mayor of South Bend (1987 - 1997), Lt. Gov. of Indiana (1997 - 2003), Gov. of Indiana (2003 - 2005);

Joe Hogsett - Secy. of State of Indiana (1987 - 1995)

Jill L. Thompson - U.S. Representative, 1989 - 1995; Bill Clinton agricultural advisor; failed candidate for Senate, 1986; failed candidate for House, 2002; failed candidate for Governor, 2008

Jill Long Thompson
Indiana's answer to Martha Coakley and Creigh Deeds.
[ Parent ]
Martha Coakley
had actually won an election b4.  
[ Parent ]
So has Jill Long Thompson
her House seat.

They both suck equally.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
You mean
a primary right? Minus the governorship usually in Mass once you win the primary your set. Too bad Coakley's race was one of those rare exceptions.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
I assume they meant the AG election

[ Parent ]
Lee Hamilton
is nearly 80, although he is a really nice guy, he is way too old. As for JLT, we should write the seat off if she is the nominee. Joe Hogsett?  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Thompson's a joke, Hamilton's too old
I was thinking Kernan was done with politics, and last I'd heard Weinzapfel (who would actually be a pretty good candidate) was more interested in the Governorship than anything else.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Kernan was not that popular
A good sacrificial lamb candidate would be Vi Simpson, who is the State Senate minority leader.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Forget them
If we're pulling out the retired politicians, give me Birch Bayh. But first, have him kick his son's ass around the block a few times.
[ Parent ]
Roemer
Roemer could win the seat. He's center right like Bayh but he doesn't seem like such a douche. He held an R+14 seat for 12 years. While being more conservative then I'd like he did campaign all out for Obama (which you'd think he'd support Hillary since he's more conservative and foreign policy oriented). Obama did consider him for VP so I think Obama would root for him to get in the race and he might as a favor to Obama. Add the fact that hes young (53) and I think this might be an ideal move. Plus it keeps Ellsworth in the House and ready to replace Lugar in 2012

Right now he's the ambassador to India which is hugely important with Afghanistan, Pakistan and China all there but I think Obama would rather have him in the Senate.

I still think Ellsworth is option 1 and Hill might be option 2 (since he has as just as good a chance winning the senate seat as re-election) but Roemer should enter the conversation.

I just have no idea how he'd be able to set up a committee, announce and get the signatures from India.

[ Parent ]
What about Tim Roemer?
I remember a 2006 poll showing him doing well against Lugar.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
He
would be my number one choice behind Ellsworth, although he is ambassador to India right now, and I am not sure if he would want to give that up.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Silver lining?
http://politics.theatlantic.co...

It's possible that Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR), who looks quite vulnerable, will follow suit. It's also reasonable that Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) might decide to caucus with Republicans; if those seats are lost, Democrats would see their Senate majority shrink to a very thin margin after 2010.

Lincoln should follow Bayh and retire so we can field Bill Halter who doesn't have the taint of DC and the douchiness that Blanche had. And Lieberman should go caucus with his BFF's Collins, Graham, and McCain, easier to defeat him in 2012 if he can't masquerade as a "Independent" Democrat.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

What are the odds
that Tamyra d'Ippolito gets some help from Republican interests in getting the last of her 4500 signatures?

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
I was thinking the same thing....
...I bet you Tamyra has seen a sudden surge of volunteers wearing Brooks Brothers suits entering her offices.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...
[ Parent ]
guarantee
I would say that is a guarantee.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
[ Parent ]
This was lifted straight from d'Ippolito's website. No kidding!
Hello Tamyra -

Here's a wacky idea that just might work.

The Tea Party people, are very anti-establishment, and from what I've read, I really don't see anything in your platform that goes against their principles. If that is the case, what does your campaign manager think about your reaching out to the Terre Haute Tea Party to speak to them and hopefully get signatures? They are already organized, and it would be an efficient way to collect signatures from like-minded people.

Here's a link to their facebook page:
http://www.facebook.com/pages/...

Here's a link to a blog
http://thteaparty.blogspot.com/

I think these are two separate groups, since the blog has a link to a Google Group and not a Facebook page.  

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Do you want to bet that is Karl Rove?


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
This was from two days ago,
so it seems to be a legit seniment, and a disturbing.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Good Freaki'n God
What a nightmare this is.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
If she's the nominee the only comparison I could make...
...would be if Hillary Clinton suddenly dropped out and the only candidate with adequate signatures was Tasini.  But that might actually be unfair to Tasini.  So perhaps a better example might be if the only candidate left on the ballot was Scott Noren.  Against George Pataki.

Wonder if Evan Bayh went to Menendez's office before the announcement and gave him the finger?  Or did he just decide to wait until the press conference?

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
Hillary?
do you mean Gillibrand?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
To err is human, to typo is to be me.


NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...
[ Parent ]
Drop out
Might she drop out though since Bayh isn't in anymore, whom she was clearly targeting? Give her a meeting with Obama if she backs out.
[ Parent ]
My conspiracy theory.
He bitches about his debt commission, so he threatens to quit days before the filing deadline, leaving Democrats without much of a candidate.  Anyone wonder if he's hoping Democrats will beg for him to stay and will give in on the debt commission?  Sounds like something a ConDem would do.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
Who knows..
Nothing shocking me these days...NOTHING!

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Wow
"Sounds like something a ConDem would do"

Then I guess you're not interested in retaining the IN Senate seat? Ellsworth, Donnelly, Hill, etc, are all Conservative Democrats.

That tinfoil must really be on tight today.

[ Parent ]
True
But they don't parade around like shills and douchebage like Bayh does, espically Hill.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Hill has balls
I have never heard anyone deny that.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Absolutely
That's why I hope the man runs for Governor in '12.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
I went to one of his town hall meetings
There was a Youtube video of it circulating on the internet last fall. Anyways, the man is very combative and not afraid to stand up for his beliefs. Unlike a lot of Democrats from red districts, he's been very insistent about supporting the healthcare bill. He'd definitely be a better Senator for you all than Evan Bayh.
[ Parent ]
That's Right
But saying "Sounds like something a ConDem would do" paints all Conservative Democrats with the same worn out brush. It's about as logical and reasonable as saying all liberal Democrats are just like Dennis Kucinich, in politics only for the attention. Of course, that's not true. There's bad apples in every group.
[ Parent ]
Absolutely
Not all conservative Democrats and Liberal Democrats are not all cut from the same cloth. I mean i'm a moderate to liberal Democrat and despises Dennis Kucinich and his purist ways.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Hold the Democratic Party hostage until they get what they want?
Yep, sounds like something they would do.

As for Donnelly, Ellsworth, or Hill, I have figured out if I think they're worth the trouble yet.  We'll see.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
If that's the case
I think he made a bad decision.  If I was an Indiana voter, I'd be somewhat mad at Bayh for pulling such a stunt.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
Somewhat mad?


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Yeah Seriously
Try spitting mad.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
I was trying to be nice...
the other word I had in mind rhymed with "wussy".

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
That was a weird vote
On who blocked the debt/deficit commission. I was going to say that the liberal-ish members and the conservative Republicans blocked it, but there's almost no rhyme or reason to the patterns--the Udalls split, the Maine ladies split, and when was the last time you saw Patty Murray & Sheldon Whitehouse voting with Mitch McConnell & Jim DeMint (they all voted "no" btw)?

Roll call vote here: http://www.senate.gov/legislat...

That said, if he REALLY wanted to a debt commission, this might not be a terrible play--Obama himself could probably whip 5-6 Dem Senators to go along, if he wanted to....and he probably doesn't. KthxBayh!

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Obama himself could probably whip 5-6 Dem Senators to go along, if he wanted to....and he probably doesn't. KthxBayh!
Why not? whats wrong with the debt commission?  

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
dems don't want to cut programs
repubs don't want to raise taxes.  a debt commission would force painful choices, like making cuts to medicare, medicaid, and social security which makes up %40 of the budget, and/or (probably and)making cuts to the department of defense and the war on terror which makes up about 22% of the budget.  no one wants to do their job and make these hard choices and they don't want some commission to force the choices on them either.  

data obtained from here

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com...

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
The reason
why a debt commission is hated by both parties is because it would force congress to raise taxes (Hated by Republicans), cut social security, medicare, medicaid (Hated by Democrats). But as Judd Gregg said, and I don't usually agree with the guy, everything has to be on the table if you want to lower the deficit. When Clinton lowered the deficit, he had to do everything that was unpopular. Russ Feingold said he was glad he was not up for reelection in 1994 when he voted on the Deficit Reduction package, because a lot of Democrats went down voting for the Deficit Reduction Package which down the road was probably the best vote they ever made.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
it is horribly bad economics
It is centrist political posturing that plays ok with voters, the media loves it, but nobody with any kind of foundation in modern economics thinks that a concept like the debt commission is a good idea.  Everybody from John Maynard Keynes to Nate Silver to me (iPhD Econ, 2010) knows that we need over public fiscal policy to be counter cyclical.  

26, D, MO-05, Hispanic
[ Parent ]
Agreed Completely
With the members like you that responded to my comment on the commission. I would like cuts of defense but certainly not programs like Social Security and Medicaid. That won't play well with voters.

Sure everyone wants the defecit to be lowered but hates the ways it would take it get it done.  

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

[ Parent ]
some voters:
cut them not me!  more programs, less taxes! ice cream that BURNS calories!

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Which just proves my point
Some people shouldn't be allowed to vote due to low intellgence. I love the ones that think all Congressmen should only be allowed to serve ONE TERM. Think of this would out.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
The seat is gone period

What a though out statement


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Typo
What a thought out statement

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
michelec is an obvious troll
Look at his/her other posts. All concern trolling.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
I know that one
The seat is gone
The seat is go-one
The seat is gone
It's on the streets
The seat is [boom, boom, boom, boom] gone!

[saxophone solo]

Thank you for your analysis.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Pence to the rescue!
For the GOP!

http://www.politico.com/news/s...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

How could he get the signatures?


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
As No 3 GOPer in the House
No Problem for him to do it if he wants it.

The Seat is his NOW IF he wants it.

[ Parent ]
500
in each district in one day with a major snow storm. Are we talking about Mike Pence or God? If he can really do that then he deserves to be Senator.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Trick Question..
According to Teabaggers, Pence is God.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
GOP signatures
Has Coats turned in signatures yet? Has any other Republican? Maybe Coats drops out and GOP committee chooses a candidate like Dems are likely to do?
[ Parent ]
The only candidate listed on the SoS website
is some guy named Don Bates Jr, so probably nobody else has filed yet.
[ Parent ]
I think I just came in my pants
Thank God. The world is a good place.
That's hot.


34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Well I suppose we will both be using tissues
although for much different uses.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Republican cheerleading is not permitted here.
Also, while we usually have no problem with people expressing themselves, this level of vulgarity is uncalled for.
[ Parent ]
THANK YOU
I was wondering whrn the mods were going to step in to stop the Republican cheerleading going on here. Go to RedState if you want to do that.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Yes
and by replying, "That's hot," I did not mean to express approval for this level of vulgarity on SSP.  I was being ironical...I swear...Quit looking at me like that!!!

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Sorry about that
n/t
[ Parent ]
Just don't get yourself banned :)
Most of us like having you around, and unlike what would be predicted a month ago, it sounds like we'll have a lot of Indiana stuff to talk about thourgh the year!
[ Parent ]
Here is a question...
What are the ballot replacement provisions? IE if Evan Bayh were to drop out or somehow become ineligible.  Are there provision for either his campaign committee or someone else to replace him?

Basically is it possible for us to use Evan's signatures to run someone else?

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

GOP retakes the Senate in 2010
50% shot now IMHO, assuming Joe Lieberman switches.
You need one more recruit
I think before you can say that - WA, WI, or NY-B.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Right
And I don't see the GOP biting on those three seats so far.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
They
can run Harold Ford Jr. on the Independent, Conservative, and Republican lines down in New York. Ford's gonna run to the right of Gilibrand so he might as well run as a Republican down there.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Rasmussen
is doing Big Bad John Cornyn's work again. They're trying to get Dino Rossi to run against Patty Murray down in Washington state.

http://www.politico.com/news/s...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Sure
But I don't think that is out of the question if we get a good candidate in NY-B/WA/WI, which seems pretty likely in this environment. Or maybe Robert Byrd will die and there will be a special election.  
[ Parent ]
Byrd dying
would very likely result in Dem retention, as CW is popular gov Joe Manchin would get in.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
More on d'Ippolito
Clearly running from the left despite the suggestion that she get in bed with the teabaggers.  OK, that just sounded dirty.

http://www.theheraldbulletin.c...

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

OK, that just sounded dirty.
Yep, you just mention the words "Left" and "Teabaggers" in the same sentence. You need a cold shower ASAP lol.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
I think we all just need to calm down
Even if d'Ippolito gets it done, there's a good chance that someone will challenge enough signatures to make her candidacy  invalid. And on the off-chance that doesn't happen, Ellsworth or someone can just run a write-in.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
I'm not calming down.
d'Ippolito is the greatest threat to democracy since Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Thanks, that made me laugh!
n/t

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Silver lining
He can never be president now.

Even if he is planning to run for governor again, he's just made so many enemies within and without the establishment that he'll never get a presidential nomination.

I hope.

I think you're right.
I almost start to wonder if he'll switch caucuses for the rest of his term, given the level of hostility that I'm seeing from him today.  Be interesting to hear his verbal comments later today.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
I dunno about that. TPM is asking: "Is Bayh Running for President"
Is Bayh Running for President
The most logical conclusion from Evan Bayh's retirement today is that he wants to be the next President of the United States.
This is a man that is already running for President. His platform is already written for him. He wants to be the moderate candidate who will, in his mind, will receive some Republican support. In my mind, the only question is whether he's going to primary Obama in 2012 or whether he's going to wait for the open race in 2016. The latter is more likely of course, but I wouldn't rule out the former. Evan Bayh, at this point, is a national politician.

[ Parent ]
Doesn't mean he won't try
I haven't read the TPM article homerun linked to, so I can't comment on that. But earlier today, I was complaining to my girlfriend about all of this (she's politically aware, but not a junkie or an activist like me). I mentioned the "moderateness," the corporate connections, the complaint about partisanship, and the $13 million he's sitting on, and she said:

"Do you think he's going to run for president? He'll probably try as an independent."

That's something that never occurred to me, but the more I think about it, the more it makes sense. I think it's possible that she cut right through to what's happening. Getting out of the Senate now gives him time to distance himself from any more tough votes and frees up time to hit cable news and line up the cash. I don't think he could pull it off, but if he tried and if voters are still angry/disappointed/whatever in 2012, I think he could pull in high single digits or low double digits.

A schmuck like Bayh is exactly the kind of guy who would appeal to the Unity '08 folks who got all that press.

Bayh/Bloomberg 2012? Ugh.

[ Parent ]
Bayh
I'm very disappointed with Evan Bayh and his timing for such a decision.  It really sucks for us in finding a credible candidate in such a short period of time.  I'm not happy about this at all.  This was my first reaction.

My second reaction is that Bayh and any politician can really do whatever the hell they want to do, no matter how self-centered the decision might me.  I sure as hell don't like the decision, but it is Bayh's decision, not my own.  If he didn't want to run, then we are best not to have him run instead of running a crappy campaign that will cost us millions only to lose.

My third reaction is that we need to find a gutsy candidate who is currently holding office to win the senate seat.  I hope we can recruit Ellsworth, Donnelly, or Hill.  Ellsworth may be the strongest of the three, but Hill may be the answer.  Hill's got a chance of losing the 9th, but he may be the answer in a statewide election.  He's as strong as Coats/Hostetler, plus he has some conservative appeal to the rural Democrats.  That being said, I'd prefer Ellsworth as our candidate.  

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

UNF'ING COOL BAYH
UNCOOL.
Moments like this
make me me love having Sens. Klobuchar and Franken.
Charlie Cook
moved it to leans republican. I think that was a little rash, I mean, I could understand moving it to a tossup but leans R seams a bit drastic given the republican lineup.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
Charlie's good on predictions
But he does tend to be predict a bit hastily once in a while. Nate chime in on this seat yet?

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Agree...
This looks like a clear tossup for now, Ellsworth would have a serious shot against any of the Republicans unless a true wave election strikes.  
[ Parent ]
IN-Sen: Bayh Will Retire | 186 comments

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