Google Ads


Site Stats

SSP Daily Digest: 2/12

by: Crisitunity

Fri Feb 12, 2010 at 2:23 PM EST


AZ-Sen: The establishment is moving in to shore up John McCain's re-election bid, as the rest of Arizona's GOP congressional delegation endorsed yesterday (over their former colleague J.D. Hayworth): Jon Kyl, plus Reps. Trent Franks, John Shadegg, and Jeff Flake. Yesterday McCain also got a perhaps more surprising endorsement yesterday, from Grover Norquist, who's been supportive of a lot of insurgent bids this year... but Norquist is more interested in purely economic issues and may not have much common cause with the more resentment-based social conservative politics of Hayworth.

CO-Sen: Here's a sign of life for the strangely low-profile Andrew Romanoff primary campaign: he just got the endorsements of two of the state's major unions, the Teamsters and the UFCW. Michael Bennet did just vote to confirm Craig Becker to the NLRB, but the unions take issue with his lack of support for the card-check provision of EFCA. Meanwhile, Tom Wiens is offering one of the strangest excuses I've ever heard for his failure to get much traction in the GOP primary: there are a whole lot of Nortons in Colorado, and people reflexively will vote for any of them.

IN-Sen: Another day, another damning revelation about Dan Coats' lobbying past. Today, it turns out that his lobbying firm, King & Spalding, was lobbying on behalf of Bank of America at a time it was seeking patent approval for a formula that would help companies evaluate whether and how to outsource their operations to lower-overhead countries.

NC-Sen: Richard Burr has drawn a primary challenger as he seeks his first re-election the Senate. Asheboro city councilor Eddie Burks, however, doesn't have the kind of high-profile position that's likely to make much of an impact. But even weirder is the nature of the challenge. You'd think he might get some traction if he reached out to the teabaggers and accused Burr of being insufficiently bloodthirsty, but instead it's a surprisingly level-headed critique of Burr's inaccessibility and general anonymity.

NY-Sen: Speaking of random primary challenges, now Chuck Schumer is facing one too, from Phil Krone, an Illinois and/or Florida political consultant who was just involved in Dan Hynes' unsuccessful campaign. Krone says he'll dive in only if he can raise $10K in contributions before April 1; given the strangeness of his bid, even that seems kind of a high bar to reach.

NY-Sen-B: Finally, there's one other carpetbagging primary challenge that's only slightly less random: that of Harold Ford Jr. against Kirsten Gillibrand. This latest discovery isn't likely to help Ford's case much: Ford claims that paying New York taxes has helped make him a New Yorker... except he hasn't paid any New York income taxes. Ford has continued to maintain Tennessee residency, which is convenient, seeing as how Tennessee doesn't have an income tax on wages. I guess what he meant is that he pays sales tax on all his New York pedicures.

WI-Sen: Ex-Gov. Tommy Thompson sure likes keeping his name in the news. Despite his recently signing on to work for a hedge fund on agribusiness matters (and his various other private sector projects, including being a partner at DC biglaw firm Akin Gump, he's still refusing to rule out a Senate bid. "I'm going through a process," he says cryptically.

NY-Gov: Looks like we will have David Paterson to kick around for at least a few months more. Despite the mounting tsunami of crap threatening to engulf him, and facing very likely annihilation by Andrew Cuomo in the Democratic primary, Paterson has been e-mailing supporters to tell them that on Feb. 20 or 21 he'll officially launch his bid to stay Governor. He is adopting the "outsider" mantle for his run, since, of course, nothing says "outsider" more than being the sitting Governor of New York.

MI-03: CQ compiles a list of a truckload of different Republicans who might seek the seat opened up this week by retiring Rep. Vern Ehlers in the Grand Rapids-based 3rd. Prime contenders include state Sens. Bill Hardiman and Mark Jansen, former state Rep. Jerry Kooiman, and former state Sen. Majority leader Ken Sikkema, all of whom say they'll decide soon. Former Lt. Gov., and gubernatorial candidate, Dick Posthumus, has ruled out a bid, and it seems unlikely that SoS Terri Lynn Land (who'd been associated with the seat when Ehlers retirement rumors popped up early last year) will run, as she might have her sights on the LG slot. While the GOP has the stronger bench here, Dems who might run include former state Reps. Michael Sak and Steve Pestka, and state Rep. Robert Dean.

NY-20: One seat that should be attractive to Republicans, given the narrowness of Rep. Scott Murphy's special election victory, is the 20th, but it's proven be one of their biggest recruiting headaches. Assemblyman Marc Molinaro is the latest GOPer to decline. Jim Tedisco, who lost to Murphy in the special, shut down his account from that election but hasn't fully ruled out another run. Murphy is already sitting on $1.4 million, which certainly acts as a deterrent.

OH-06: The rural, Appalachian-flavored 6th (at R+2, and a negative trend from Kerry to Obama) is another district that should be a Republican target, but where Rep. Charlie Wilson hasn't drawn a serious opponent yet. Some Dude, however, has stepped up, in the form of businessman Bill Johnson. Johnson had been considering a run next door in the 17th (where he lives) against Rep. Tim Ryan, but recently seemed to realize the 6th would be easier sledding.

CA-LG: The confirmation of Abel Maldonado as California's new Lt. Governor has become a bizarre clusterf@ck. First off, there's the question of why legislative Democrats would want to keep Maldonado in his Dem-leaning, pick-up-able Senate seat instead of promoting him to the entirely harmless LG slot. Clearly the Senate Dems like the idea of getting to the magic 2/3s mark, as Maldonado's appointment cleared the Senate easily, but then enough Dems in the Assembly voted against it that his appointment failed, with 37 voting yes and 35 voting no. Confused? Well, some would say that he needed 41 votes (a majority of the 80-seat chamber) in order to be confirmed. Arnold Schwarzenegger is claiming victory, though, and planning to swear in Maldonado anyway, claiming that there would need to be 41 votes against Maldonado for the confirmation to fail. Several election law experts say Ahnold has a good point with that, although there's guidance from a 1988 state treasurer appointment that says otherwise. Looks like this is headed to the courts.

Teabaggers: Ed Kilgore picks apart the recent CBS poll regarding the tea party movement, and comes to the same conclusions that I've been teasing out... that there's really nothing new in the movement, and that it's just the most conservative elements of the Republican coalition in just a particularly revved-up, radicalized mood, and with a handy new name to distinguish themselves. This is particularly seen that 62% of them have a favorable view of the Republican party, despite their vague claims to be a movement separate from the parties.

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 2/12
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

ND-AL
Rasmussen poll says:

Rick Berg, a Fargo businessman and state representative, now leads Pomeroy 46% to 40%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and 11% are undecided.

Kevin Cramer, a state public service commissioner who has run unsuccessfully against Pomeroy twice before, now is in a virtual tie with the congressman. Pomeroy earns 45% support to Cramer's 44%. Three percent (3%) favor another candidate, but just seven percent (7%) are undecided.

Pomeroy, the state's only congressman since 1993, fares better against Bismarck insurance agent Paul Schaffner, leading that Republican hopeful 47% to 38%. In that race, five percent (5%) like another candidate, and 10% are undecided.



who's who?
Who is the democrat and who is the repub?

[ Parent ]
Pomeroy is
the Dem.

[ Parent ]
Pomeroy should retire


[ Parent ]
i disagree
he is our only hope(no bench,and he has money)

[ Parent ]
Rasmussen
polls house races? I thought they only poll Presidential/Governor/Senate races. Rasmussen should poll Walt Minnick's seat next.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Probably only because it's an at-large seat
I don't think they ever do district-level polls.

[ Parent ]
Numbers like this from Ras, at this date...
Pomeroy should be fine.

[ Parent ]
Hey, it just
It just wouldn't be California unless there's some massive clusterfarkery going on....

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

Now here is a fun poll!
56% of Minnesotans think Michele Bachmann's work as a Congresswoman embarrasses us.

And in her own district, the numbers are 39% embarrass, 47% make us proud, and 14% unsure.  Independents call her an embarrassment with 62% agreeing, and when it comes to GOPers' only 58% say she does them proud with a whopping 30% unsure.

The poll question asks "Do you think Congresswoman Michele Bachmann does Minnesota proud in Congress or embarrasses Minnesota?" so it makes people literally call her an embarrassment.


MI-3
Two other possiblities in MI-3

Paul Mayhue, former County Commissioner.

Pat Miles Jr., attorney, went to law school with Barack Obama, very much a community leader.


Someone mentioned the mayor of Grand Rapids
I think someone from there could be a good candidate especially if that city is respected throughout the district rather than thought of with animosity or suspicion.  

[ Parent ]
Mayor George Heartwell
would be a possibility, and a strong candidate, no insights though on what he's thinking.

[ Parent ]
TX-Gov: Bill White behind by only low single-digits
http://www.dailykos.com/statep...

They've got Medina behind at 17%, and this stuff was conducted before her 9/11 truth comments. If the PPP poll was correct and Medina's drawing equally from Perry and Hutchison, I suspect Hutchison will be the benefactor to whatever fallout Medina receives over the coming weeks; the conspiracy theorists and birthers will stay with Medina, and I think this is more of a Perry-friendly crowd. If I'm correct, that means Hutchison may have caught a break, given she's only behind 12% in the primary and 10% in the run-off. We could still have a race on our hands.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


I was shocked by Medina's comments
Is this belief more common among crazy conservatives or crazy lefties or is it just universal to anti-government folks from both sides? I say this because if it's a lefty kind of movement that makes it even more shocking coming from a supposedly conservative Republican candidate.

[ Parent ]
9/11 trutherism
comes from the extreme left AND the extreme right.  It's a very disparate group of people, united by general distrust of the government.  You've got the people who think George Bush personally detonated bombs in the base of the WTC and then you've got people who think Obama is setting up concentration camps.  Weirdos on both side who will believe any conspiracy theory.

[ Parent ]
MI-3 Republicans
Land spokesperson says:

"Right now, she's focused on being part of Mike Bouchard's team for governor"

Amway heir and 2006 Republican nominee for governor Dick DeVos today endorsed Just Amash, a one-term State Rep with very close ties to the Tea Party of West Michigan.

My guess is the race on the Republican side will be
Amash
Sikkema
Hardiman
and Steve Heacock

More: http://www.westmichiganrising....
http://www.mlive.com/news/gran...


CO. Great tip! We need to start recruiting people named Norton
to be our candidates there.

NY-20
Can someone explain how Murphy got $1.4M already.  Did someone doa  fundraiser for him after the special.  That's a huge amount for a 1 year congressman in a district that while geographically big, isnt expensive for media.

$1.4 is probably a bit above average
But nothing that makes me raise an eyebrow.  That's $350k a quarter, and I definitely remember some 06 winners in 07 raking in massive amounts like that, with Gillibrand being the one to come to mind.

[ Parent ]
Still seems odd
That this seat is suddenly a fundraising juggernaut.  I knew Gillibrand was prolific at fundraising and understood where here money came from.  I just figured the money would go with her to her Senate fundraising, not multiply for both her and Murphy.

I grew up in the district and it just seems odd...


[ Parent ]
Source for $1.4 Million?
The referenced CQPolitics article says Murphy "ended 2009" with "$1.4 million in the bank."

But opensecrets.org says Murphy had a little over $700,000 cash on hand as of Dec. 31. http://www.opensecrets.org/rac...

Can anyone explain the discrepancy?


[ Parent ]
Confused
How can Ford run in NY if he is considered a resident of TN?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


New York
has very liberal residency laws.  See Hilary Clinton and RFK.

[ Parent ]
Nah I say CA tops that one
Since they got a Congressmen who once represented Long Beach now represents a district in the Sacramento suburbs (Dan Lungren), a Congressmen who used to be a State Senator who's district was in the LA traveled 500 miles upstate to win a open seat in Northern California (Tom McCintock). A ex-Congressman who represented the Stockton area now is running for Congress in the Fresno area (Richard Pombo) and a Republican to lost to a Democrat in a district in the East Bay is now running for Congress in another part of Northern California (David Harmer).

If that ain't liberal, I don't know what is.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.


[ Parent ]
McClintock's state senate district was in Ventura County I believe
and at least that's still the same state.

Oh Harold Ford, what are we going to do with you...

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Why
Are so many Republicans after Ehler's seat? Isn't it almost certainly going to be combined with Sensenbrenner's in redistricting?

Not sure if this was a joke...
but it's impossible to combine the Milwaukee suburbs with Grand Rapids...even if we got past the whole not in the same state thing, it would be pretty hard. :P

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Water contiguity?
Sure, there is the whole 'two different states' thing, but I'm sure half of Idaho is willing to secede from the other half to make up the numbers...

[ Parent ]

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?


About the Site

SSP Resources

Blogroll

Powered by: SoapBlox