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VA-05: Perriello Just May Survive

by: Crisitunity

Thu Feb 11, 2010 at 1:03 PM EST


PPP (pdf) (2/5-10, likely voters)

Tom Perriello (D-inc): 44
Robert Hurt (R): 44
Undecided: 13

Tom Perriello (D-inc): 41
Robert Hurt (R): 12
Virgil Goode (I): 41
Undecided: 6

Tom Perriello (D-inc): 44
Robert Hurt (R): 27
Generic Teabagger (I): 19
Undecided: 10

Tom Perriello (D-inc): 46
Ken Boyd (R): 42
Undecided: 12

Tom Perriello (D-inc): 45
Jim McKelvey (R): 37
Undecided: 18

Tom Perriello (D-inc): 45
Michael McPadden (R): 36
Undecided: 19

Tom Perriello (D-inc): 44
Lawrence Verga (R): 34
Undecided: 21
(MoE: ±3.2%)

Mainstream media pundits have pretty much already left Rep. Tom Perriello for dead. Between having the narrowest margin of victory of any Democrat in 2008 (900-odd votes over then-Rep. Virgil Goode) and sitting in a rural R+5 district that went strongly for Bob McDonnell in November's gubernatorial race, he was already viewed as endangered -- and when he cast theoretically risky votes for cap and trade and health care reform instead of hiding under a pile of coats with the Blue Dogs, well, it was an open and shut case, right? Guess again: PPP finds Perriello tied with his strongest Republican opposition, state Sen. Robert Hurt, and winning rather convincingly against the assortment of other random Republicans. (As a bonus, PPP promises GOP primary numbers tomorrow, so we can see if Hurt, an establishment figure who's had a big target painted on his back by not just the teabaggers but also the CfG/Grover Norquist set, is getting hurt by the GOP schism.) Don't pop the bubbly yet, of course: Perriello's still well below the 50% safety mark.

One thing I love about PPP is how willing they are to try out every possible permutation, and they do that here, with a three-way against an unnamed tea party independent (although Generic Teabagger already has a name in this race... it's Bradley Rees), where Perriello effectively rides the split to victory over Hurt, and a three-way with ex-Rep. Virgil Goode as an independent (something he's threatened, although hasn't taken steps towards). There, it's actually a Perriello/Goode tie, with Hurt getting a woeful 12%. This is interesting, as Goode is basically functioning as a non-generic teabagger; if there's one guy out there who seems tailor-made for the Tea Party movement, it's Goode, who briefly served as an independent in between being a Dem (when first elected) and a GOPer, and whose odd, ideologically incoherent mix of libertarianism, populism, and xenophobic crackpottery seems like the teabagger template.

Also worth noting: Goode is the only person in the whole poll who's in positive territory (58/29). Not Barack Obama (although he's at a surprisingly not-bad 46/50), not Perriello (42/46),  not Hurt (15/15), and certainly not the other GOP odds and ends.

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VA-05: Perriello Just May Survive | 63 comments
Hope Periello wins...
He is really a good pulbica servant and my sister and her boyfriend at UVA Law worked canvassed like crazy for his narrow victory, including having to run from a crazy old farmer (probably a Teabagger) yelling obscenities about Obama with a rifle (no prosecution though since it was on his property). HA!

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  
You should get that farmer to run as the Generic Teabagger (I)
He sounds perfect for the job.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
Basically...
Any middle aged, white male or female with a jones for government doing things to better society can be considered a 'generic teabagger". That, as well as people who 'teabag', if you smell what the Rock is cookin'.
[ Parent ]
If
this were Facebook, I would "like" this story.

But really, Perriello has been a very good vote on a lot of issues, especially considering his district.  He should be an example to other politicians who feel like they have to vote a certain way solely to keep their job, and even he has said something to this effect.  As long as we don't see him go off the deep end a la Bachmann or Grayson he should hopefully have a very long tenure in Congress.

[ Parent ]
"As long as we don't see him go off the deep end a la Bachmann or Grayson he should hopefully have a very long tenure in Congress."
Trust me you won't. If you ever heard Tom speak, he a very mild manner guy and the farest thing from a loose cannon. So he'll be fine on that. Don't get me wrong I love Alan Grayson to death but i'm beginning if what Anthony Weiner said about him is true, that he one french fry short of a happy meal.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Grayson is just a showman
And got sick and tired of the GOP getting to be the only ones to make stupid outlandish comments about HCR.

In all honesty, I get kind of annoyed when everyone here compares him to Bachmann.  What Grayson said on the house floor pertaining to HCR was the complete equivalent of the GOP and their extreme rhetoric about killing grandma; taking the other sides position and explaining it in the most extreme terms, much like any attack ad.

What Bachmann does is completely make shit up, like saying there is a plot by Iran to divide Iraq into 3 countries or everything she said on Matthews pertaining to anti-Americanism.

The main difference I think is that Grayson knows he is just being incendiary for incendiary sake, Bachmann is deeply damaging and people actually look up to her and listen to her complete nonsense and flat out lies.  Bringing back the 1970's era flu fears and trying to tie that to Obama and blame him for the swine flu outbreaks, just ridiculous.  And then she goes, well Im not blaming Obama for anything Im just sayin.  Just sayin for what reason?!

Grayson is a walking attack ad, Bachmann is a walking embarrassment.

[ Parent ]
Grayson is right; Bachmann is a paranoid schizophrenic.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Agreed
I get sick as well when people say he the Dem's version of Bachmann when the two could be more different. Greyson loves to call out the GOP on their lies and bullshit like on HCR, granted he went overboard when he compared it to the Holocaust but the guy was making a point that their bill is bad. Greyson gets compared to her because he says think that are typical of a politican like being controversial. Which is why he's a darling to a lot of Democrats like myself.

Bachmann on the other is frankly just a lunatic there's no question. For four years I believed that she's not in her right mind and should seek mental health ASAP. The woman is an embarrassment because of what Andrew says, the woman just spreads lies and GOP propaganda about Obama and the Dems like here anti-american comment and the fact she's a very dangerous person.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

[ Parent ]
Are you seriously equating Grayson and Bachmann?
Alan Grayson may be bombastic, but is he a serial liar?  Is he unhinged?  According to Progressive Punch, on crucial votes, Grayson is the 178th most progressive Member of the house.  Bachmann is in 419th place.
[ Parent ]
I think what the poster was getting that
When he said if he dosen't act essentric like Grayson like comparing the GOP's HCR plan to the holocause (Greyson should be ashsmed of his comment since he's a Jew himself) he'll be fine. I don't think it was a knock on Alan personally he was just warning him not to act like him.

And I like Alan alot, I like his passion, fire, willingness to take on any GOPer not to mention the netroots and base absolutely loves him which is why he has raised so much dough and which is probally the reason the GOP can't find a credible opponent to challenge him, his money scares them away.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

[ Parent ]
He didn't compare it to the Holocaust.
He called the situation a holocaust, which is "a great and terrible destruction," something that is dead on, in my opinion.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Regardless
As bad as the GOP plan was, you don't compare to to something that was bad and evil as the Holocaust, espically if your a Jew like Grayson is. I like him lot but it was uncalled for.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
THANK YOU!
Like I just posted directly above you, yes yes yes!

SSP should really create a "like" button like on Fbook, that'd make my commenting life so much easier.  ;)  Its so weird how Fbook has completely changed my psyche.  Was just telling my bf about the 'We support Betty White to host SNL' fan page and how after being formed for 5 days, it's grown to 100k members and was probably the main catalyst behind writing the MSNBC article I read about Betty White and how hot her career is at 88.  Two people from the fan page were even interviewed.

Speaking of which, if you aren't already a fan, please join the "Betty White to Host SNL (please?)" group.  Sorry to be a d and advertise fbook fan pages on SSP, but this is important, its Betty White.

[ Parent ]
Wow
Unbelievable. I wonder how Nye is doing? If those two can hang I don't think this year will be as bad as people think...

I thought Periello was a goner for sure. Along with Minnick and Bright.

21, Male, Gay, Dem, Born: AR-04 ;  Current Residence: FL-02

Frontline incumbents have an advantage...
...because they know what is going at them and that gives them the ability to survive.  Think of the marquee races the last few years where the incumbent (of either party) survived in a race both parties identified and poured tons of money into.  Until 2008 Chris Shays didn't earn the nickname Rasputin for nothing.

What is dangerous in a year like this though are those without the large bullseyes on their forehead who need to work just as hard.  Particularly since often times these races don't break until the end.

I'm more worried about race 10-20 and 21-30 then 1-10.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
We all thought so to
Guess when someone polls the race to really find out what the F is going on down there, seems like the guy has a shot. As for Minnick and Bright. Yeah Minnick is burnt toast but I wouldn't count out Bobby Bright out just yet.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
I'd like to see some numbers for Minnick before declaring him burnt toast
and same goes for Bright, who I think might actually be doing quite well.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Likewise
I'm very interested to see how Minnick and to a lesser extent Kratovil are doing. Granted, their districts are quite a bit tougher than VA-5, but Minnick in particular got some good press a while back from what I recall.

I wouldn't mind a poll done in Bright's district either, though in his case I'd figure he's just up because his opponents don't seem to be very strong, regardless of partisan lean.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Agreed
I PPP does this thing where they have a poll on their site and let the people decide what race to poll, now that Jensen has polled VA-5 I would like to see him poll MD-1, ID-1 and AL-I forgot the number of the district Bright represents. I'm very curious to see the numbers in these three races. Also I like him to poll John Tanner's open seat in Tennessee. No sense dumping money to poll Bart Gordon's district as that seat is already gone, along with Charlie Melancon's.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Bright is AL-02
n/t

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
The amazing thing about Kratovil
is that there's any number of Republicans in that district who could thump him soundly.  E. J. Pipkin is one of them.  Yet the Republicans are running Andy Harris again.  People voted against Andy Harris last time because he was a terrible candidate.  He's still a terrible candidate, only this time Kratovil is an incumbent.  I'm not convinced that combination won't more than outweigh the electoral shifts between cycles.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...
[ Parent ]
I still cant believe we even won MD-1
That will probably go down as my shocker of election night 2008.  
[ Parent ]
You don't think
Perriello, Grayson and Minnick weren't bigger shocks than Kratovil beating Harris?

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Grayson's outspoken progressivism
is the shocker, not his winning in a mere R+2 open seat.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Sorry, not open seat
still, toppling an R incumbent in an R+2 district with the wind behind your back isn't the most notable thing in the world (even if it is notable).

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
I think it can still be notable
Because Greyson is a outspoken liberal that won a R+2 District, that's the shock. His views are more suitable in a D+10 or more district and not a R+2 but regardless i'm happy he's in the House regardless of what kind of district he represents.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Wait, what?
Pipkin isn't running in the primary? That's kind of a shock to me. He'd thrash Kratovil in 2010 (Republican year + first-term incumbent + better geography than Harris), and that may not be true in 2012, especially if the statehouse decides to win some babka in a gerrymander.
[ Parent ]
I think Bright will do alright
I can certainly see him holding on even if we lose 25-30 seats.
[ Parent ]
Same Here
Bright will be fine because Martha Roby is nothing that scares him and Bright's independent voting record, godd ol boy image and the fact he's from the wiregrass will help him out.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
I've been convinced for a while that Periello has a shot at making it out alive
Good to see these numbers, but those are some pretty nasty unfavs. Also weird to see such positive fav scores for Goode.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
Give him some dough
http://www.actblue.com/entity/...

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
Damn right I wll
What you know, we just may have a shot of winning this thing. Great. Even though i'm preparing myself for a 30 seat loss, I be bummed if Tom was one of the 30 because for the type of district he represents we really has stuck his neck out for us in times when he could of put his head in the sand and hide, I respect that. We all respect that.

Thank you Tom Jensen for making this poll to see whats going down in VA-5. Jensen is the one who runs PPP, yes?

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

[ Parent ]
Dean Debnam runs PPP
Tom Jensen is the spokesman.

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
Thanks for pointing that out
I just always thought Jensen was the man running the polling company because when they release a poll, Jensen is the one giving analysis on the poll. I assume since it's a Dem polling company there both Dems.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
I know Debnam is a Democrat
Can't say for sure with Jensen, but I believe he is as well.

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
Your mostly right
We know Debnam is a Dem because PPP is a Dem pollster so it's likely he would hire a Dem to be his right hand man in Tom Jensen.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
yes, Jensen is a Dem
he has mentioned on the blog before that he wants the Dems to win.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Thanks for pointing that out
I would think Jensen would be a Dem and not to mention he would want the party to succeed. Be kinda weird being a Dem and working for a Dem polling company in PPP and wanting the GOP to win. Never thought Jensen would be so open about it though.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Jensen's line
is that even though PPP is a Democratic company they release polling results whether good or bad for Dems, so he's sick of people attacking results they don't like.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Good!
Contrary to other better entrenched (seemingly) Democrats in less hostile districts - very decent numbers.
Some minor corrections
Bradley Rees has only threatened to run third party, but he has stated more and more in the media that he will likely not run; he enjoys the perch that he has created for himself. I seriously doubt that he will live into his threat for a third party candidacy. Some of the lesser known third party candidates (i.e., McKelvey and McPadden) have intoned about the possibility of running third party.

There is also the possibility of a Tea Party candidate, Jeffrey Clark, who said that he would definitely get in if it looks like Hurt will get the nomination (PPP releases their VA-5 GOP primary results tomorrow).

Finally as The American Prospect states:

Most importantly, as Dave Weigel comments over the tweets, "Perriello is out there campaigning all the time. The wimpy retiring Dems don't want to work for it." It's true, and it should be a lesson for other Democrats in tough districts. It's possible to maintain support if you're willing to stand up for your principles and work hard to get your message out. It sounds like Politics 101, but so many Dems in seats like these are retiring or offering weak-tea conservative compromises that don't differentiate them from the other party. The rest of the majority caucus could learn from one of its younger members.

Well Weigel got a point
I mean Perriello comes from a pretty red district that won by beating Goode by 900 some votes andsince then he has listened to his constitutents, campaigned hard and hasn't taken the easy way out in terms of the way he votes and look at the results he's in a deadheat in a district everyone thought he was DOA from day one. The quote you posted from Prospect make sense.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
I don't understand...
If Goode wants to run again why would he do it as an Independent and not as a Republican. My understanding was Hurt and all the other jumped into the race because Goode said he wasnt going to run again. Have to believe if Goode wanted to run again he could have the GOP nod for the asking.

If so this poll should sacre Dems. Goode could look at it and think if he could probably win or tie as an Independent with Hurt on the GOP line, that he might be able to win big if he gets the GOP nod.

If Goode decides to run as a Republican all hope for a divided GOP goes out the door.

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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This poll isn't scaring me
And i'm a Dem. The fact this PPP poll is showing Perriello competitive instead of down 15 points to Hurt or Good is a good thing.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
I'm starting to think
That the national tide is starting to swing back our direction.  Ever since the State of the Union and that Q/A session with the Republicans a few weeks ago, the polling data has been better virtually across the board.  

This poll here is very encouraging.  I'll spoil it, I'm working on the 3rd part of my house predictions right now, and I had the Repubs picking up VA-5.  I'm not going to change my mind over 1 poll, but this tells me that my alleged optimism thus far is probably not without merit.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

I think it's too early to say that.
We may just be in the eye of the storm. If still nothing gets done and our leaders fall back into timid bipartisanship mode again, we'll be screwed.  Still, I'm cautiously optimistic.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Point taken...
But I don't see that hapen espically after what I saw after the SOTU. But still i'll take being cautious optimistic rather being in the mental mood that the sky is falling.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
I think you have a point
in saying it's too early to make a definitive statement about where this is going.  BUT, I certainly do think the Dems have wised up since we lost MA-Sen.  Only having 59 seats and having to work across the aisle for stuff is making us look quite good, we are now working in a bipartisan fashion and will now have at least some of the GOP name attached to any bill we get passed.

Ive noticed this even in the MSM.  Its no longer Democrats suck and wont listen its also, GOP wont work with Democrats so they suck, too.

Ever since losing MA-Sen, it's felt like the entire political sphere has shifted to the center and well, as much as I dislike it, it has made us a lot more palatable and has shown the GOP's hand in that they dont want to do work towards anything, period.

I really dont think Specter switching has been much of a blessing whatsoever.  We didnt get use to his vote for any really important votes, all it did was make us have a super majority that us as Democrats are incapable of using effectively (conservadems vs Democrats), and it put all the blame on us for not fixing the country fast enough.

[ Parent ]
Go Perriello!
the only thing that bothers me is his favorables, but those aren't terrible. Looks like his backbone is paying off.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
Attention Ben Nelson, Max Baucus, Blanche Lincoln, and others: Having a backbone is good.
Attention Joe Lieberman: Throwing away a perfectly good backbone just makes you an idiot.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
It's hard to throw away a backbone
When none of the pols you mentioned ever had one, espically Holy Joe lol.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
He could have gotten himself a backbone but he threw away the opportunity


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Joe Lieberman has never been a liberal
Remember his first campaign for U.S. Senate? He won by assassinating the character of liberal Republican Lowell Weicker from the right, with support from the Buckleys. He's always been a sanctimonious hypocrite and a person of unethical character.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Okay, maybe I was unclear
What I meant was that he could have been more progressive, and his constituency would have backed him up on it.  But he chose not to.  That's the backbone I'm talking about that he rejected.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Makes me wonder
how did he become our VP nominee in 2000?  I was only in 8th grade when the 2000 election occurred so oblige me.
[ Parent ]
I'm pretty sure...
It was because Gore thought it would secure the Indy and Jewish vote despite the fact Jews would for Dems most of the time anyways.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Gore also wanted people to shut up about Lewinsky
Lieberman's concern troll act on that was heavily played up at the time as a reason to pick him.
[ Parent ]
Gore also wanted people to shut up about Lewinsky
Lieberman's concern troll act on that was heavily played up at the time as a reason to pick him.
[ Parent ]
Sorry about the double post

[ Parent ]
Good
I like these poll numbers. Perriello has supported democrat policy in its hole; and it's good to see that supporting your sides policy ideas doesn't make you unelectable.  
I have said this before
but I think Perriello owes a lot of his success to his tremendous amount of work for his constituents. He has held town hall events all across his district and has been respectable to his opponents, including tea party members, while at the same time pushing for a progressive future. I also think that his stance against lobbyists and Wall Street helps him tremendously in his traditionally Democratic district. He's a perfect example of how vulnerable Democrats should act. I wish Alan Grayson had followed Perriello's style more closely, but we will see what happens in these districts.
Encouraging
I don't think things have turned yet but I think there is mounting evidence to suggest they have stopped getting worse.
Best news I've heard all day
Now we gotta donate and campaign for him, and dems just might beat the national tide.

22, male, VA-10
VA-05: Perriello Just May Survive | 63 comments

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