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Illinois Primaries Prediction Thread

by: Crisitunity

Tue Feb 02, 2010 at 6:17 PM EST


While we're sitting around waiting for polls to close in Illinois (closing time is 7 pm Central, meaning 8 pm Eastern and 5 pm Pacific), let's turn the floor open to predictions for tonight. Can David Hoffman pull off the upset against Alexi Giannoulias in the Senate primary? Can Dan Hynes complete his late surge against Pat Quinn in the Democratic gubernatorial primary? Can any of the hapless Republicans in the gubernatorial primary crack 20% of the vote? What the heck is going to happen in the Cook County Board President race? To get your bearings on all these races and more (IL-08, IL-10, IL-11, IL-14), please check out DavidNYC's preview from this weekend.

Two other items of note tonight that you also might want to keep an eye on:

• There are also primaries in the special election in FL-19 to fill the vacancy left by Rep. Robert Wexler's resignation, although they look devoid of drama. (Polls close at 8 pm Eastern.)

• Tonight is the first night of Minnesota's byzantine party nominating process, starting with precinct-level caucusing. The process will wend its way through legislative district and county-level conventions, building its way up to statewide nominating conventions in April. Tonight's caucus results, plus tonight's informal straw polls in the governor's race, should at least give some preliminary clues where we're headed in Minnesota.  
Crisitunity :: Illinois Primaries Prediction Thread
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Illinois Primaries Prediction Thread | 30 comments
I say...
Giannoulias edges out Hoffman with around 40%.

Hynes scores 54-57% against Quinn. Lieutenant Governor is ??. I voted for Art Turner, but expect the suburbs to go for Link and "downstate" for Boland.

Cook County Board President finishes Preckwinkle-Brown-O'Brien with Stroger in dead last, Preckwinkle gets 35-40%. Also hoping Joe Berrios gets his ass handed to him for Cook County Assessor, I'm pulling for Figueroa.

I think McKenna ekes by in the GOP primary, even though he's been getting blasted on TV by everyone, espcially Kirk Dillard (that I've been seeing, anyway). Kirk cruises with a strong majority for Senate.

Hoping Raja Krishnamoorthi wins Comptroller and Robin Kelly for treasurer; no idea how those races will actually shake out.

Results here for all races.

What is Cook County Assessor anyway?
I've seen a good number of Figueroa signs and don't even know what the office does...

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
My guess is they run the department that assesses real estate and/or personal property.

[ Parent ]
I voted for:
Quinn (though at this point I think Hynes is more electable in the GE), Giannoulias, Link, Krishnamoorthi (I really hope he wins too), and Robin Kelly.

Local stuff is meh...no real races here in Dupage County. Hopefully, Scott Harper can beat out Biggert in the GE. That would make my year.  

[ Parent ]
IL predictions
IL-Sen: Giannoulias by a better-than-expected margin.  Jackson's support craters and bleeds to Giannoulias.  Mark Kirk wins convincingly, but Hughes cracks 20%.

IL-Gov: Hynes beats Quinn by 5 or so.  For the Republicans, it's McKenna, Dillard, Ryan, in that order.  Dillard would have won if he hadn't suspended his campaign a couple days ago because his father was ill.

Cook County Board President: Brown def. Preckwinkle by a slim margin after Sroger supporters break late for the machine candidate.  O'Brien's strong support among white progressives dooms Preckwinkle.

IL-10: Seals and Coulson win their primaries, giving us the least favorable matchup.  However, I think Seals might still win in November.

IL-14: Hastert def. Hultgren and goes on to win in November.

FL-19: Ted Deutch wins (duh!).

MN-Gov: Marty Seifert is going to be the GOP nominee.  For the Dems, I think Dayton and Kelliher are peaking, while Entenza and Rybak are losing ground.  This sets up a Dayton-Kelliher matchup in the primary (Kelliher wins the caucus, Dayton and Entenza continue to the primary, but Entenza is fatally weakened by a poor caucus showing) with Kelliher favored for the nom.  I think this is unfortunate, as I see Rybak as the only candidate who can make the pickup a sure thing, but Kelliher's probably the best second choice.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

FWIW
in Hyde Park (white and very progressive) I haven't seen any O'Brien signs. I've seen Preckwinkle and Stroger signs.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Alexi/Hynes +10
Hoping for Hamos and Dold.
I'm thinking...
Alexi Giannoulias - 41%
David Hoffman - 35%
Cheryle Jackson - 19%
Others - 5%

Mark Kirk - 77%
Others - 23%

--------------------

Dan Hynes - 53%
Pat Quinn - 47%

Jim Ryan - 28%
Andy McKenna - 20%
Adam Andrzejewski - 16%
Bill Brady - 15%
Kirk Dillard - 14%
Dan Proft - 7%

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

Interesting
A Ryan prediction.  My take is that this outcome would require low Republican turnout -- do you agree?

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...
[ Parent ]
I think you may be correct
From what I gather, Ryan's base is largely the type of rank-and-file Republicans who GOTV time and time again. If the teabaggers find themselves content with Kirk and indifferent on the Gov race, I think Ryan can actually pull this off pretty comfortably.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
My Predictions
Mark Kirk cruises easily since the teabaggers did not turn out.

IL Senate Primary:
Alexi 35%
Hoffman 30%
Jackson 25%

Jackson gets a boost from African American turnout in Chicago

IL Gov
Hynes 48%
Quinn 42%

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

I'm assuming turnout rates are a bit lower in Chicagoland are lower then downstate
Alexi- 45%
Hoffman- 28%
Jackson- 27%

Kirk- 65%
Hughes- 20%
Everyone else- 15%

Hynes- 52%
Quinn- 48%

Dillard- 27%
Ryan- 23%
McKenna- 21%
Brady- 19%
Andrzejewski- 9%
Other- 1%

Hamos- 53%
Seals- 47%

Coulson- 37%
Dold- 34%
Green-29%

Hastert- 55%
Hultgren- 45%

Preckwinkle- 33%
O'Brien- 31%
Brown- 28%
Stroger- 18%

Deutch- 80%
Graber- 20%

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


Here are my complete, random, likely-off predictions:
Gov:

Hynes - 53
Quinn - 47

McKenna - 27
Dillard - 22
Ryan - 20
Brady - 14
Andrewjzklsejysky - 12
Proft - 5

Sen:

Alexi - 39
Hoffman - 32
Jackson - 25
Other - 3

Kirk - 76
Hughes - 21
Other - 3

10th CD:

Dan Seals - 52
Julie Hamos - 37
Elliot Richardson - 11

Bob Dold - 36
Beth Coulson - 32
Dick Green - 27
Other - 5

14th CD:

Ethan Hastert - 65
Randy Hultgren - 35

I swear I didn't see yours
before making mine.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Here I go
Alexi Giannoulias 39
Cheryle Jackson - 30
David Hoffman - 28
Others 3
I think Giannoulias will survive, although it will be close, and I think that Jackson will do better than most people think, she will get the black vote, and do well with woman.  

Mark Kirk 75
Others 25
Kirk is a sure thing, although I hope we see some mad tea baggers come November. :)

Pat Quinn 52
Dan Hynes 47
Others 1
I think that if the primary was held a week or two from now Hynes would win it, but honestly I think Quinn will survive, although it will be very close, and I could easily be wrong.

Kirk Dillard 26
Jim Ryan 23
Andy McKenna 20
Bill Brady 15
Adam Andrzejewski 11
Dan Proft 5
I think that Ryan, McKenna, Brady, Andrzejewski, and Proft will split the conservative vote and give it to Dillard.

If I get one prediction right I will be happy :)  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

A Link to live results please!
pretty please!
At the top of Politico2010 they'll have live results
http://www.politico.com/2010/

What makes this better then a lot of other sources is there'll be a live map.    

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Though if you're like me and are using an iphone Politico's results may not show, so this is a better link
http://www.myfoxchicago.com/su...

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
AP Results here...
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/f...

There are a LOT of results, because judgeships are also up for election this cycle.

I...admittedly, left the vast majority of the judgeships blank.

[ Parent ]
Predictions for the big 3:
Gov-D: Hynes 51%--Quinn 49%
Gov-R: McKenna 25%--Dillard 24%--Adam A 20%--Ryan 12%--Proft 10%--Brady 9%

Sen-D: Alexi G. 41%--Hoffman 35%--Jackson 21%
Sen-R: Kirk 59%--Hughes 20%

10 CD-D: Hamos 51%--Seals 45%
10 CD-R: Dold 40%--Coulson 34%--Green 15%

prediction
IL-Sen: Alexi/Kirk win easily
IL-Gov: Quinn narrowly edges Hynes, Dillard wins on the GOP side

IL-10: Seals and Coulson win
IL-14: Hastert wins

FL-19: Deutch wins

DGM's predictions (based on absolutely no knowledge of Illinois politics)
Senate:

Giannoulias 43%
Hoffman 35%
Jackson 22%

(By the way, why is everyone calling Giannoulias by his first name anyways, is it because it's too hard to spell Giannoulias? :P)

Kirk 59%
Hughes 41%

This is basically an out-of-nowhere prediction, but I have a sneaking suspicion that Kirk will do a lot worse than people think. I'm probably wrong on this, but a completely random prediction never hurt anyone, now did it? :D

Governor:

Quinn 51%
Hynes 49%

I'm with those who think that Hyne's surge comes too late, and that Quinn will barely eek out a victory. I have no problem admiting that I could be very wrong here!

(I'm not even going to try to predict the cluster-fuck that is the Republican gubernatorial primary)

House:

Hamos 54%
Seals 46%

I think that Seals's past two losses to Mark Kirk are going make him a lot less attractive to Democratic primary voters, and that Hamos's huge cash advantage will give her what she needs to win.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

Florida Results
2% in and Deutch is winning with 78%
Link?
Thanks in advance.
[ Parent ]
Florida Sun Sentinel
[ Parent ]
Even More
Make that 88%
[ Parent ]
Not anymore
U.S. House - District 19 - Dem Special Primary
7 of 351 Precincts Reporting - 2%
Name Party Votes Vote %
Deutch, Ted Dem 2,543 88%
Graber, Ben Dem 333 12%

U.S. House - District 19 - GOP Special Primary
7 of 351 Precincts Reporting - 2%
Name Party Votes Vote %
Budd, Joe GOP 291 50%
Lynch, Edward GOP 218 38%
Price, Curt GOP 72 12%

 

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
Here are more Florida Results
U.S. House - District 19 - Dem Special Primary
12 of 351 Precincts Reporting - 3%
Name Party Votes Vote %
Deutch, Ted Dem 3,553 84%
Graber, Ben Dem 679 16%

U.S. House - District 19 - GOP Special Primary
12 of 351 Precincts Reporting - 3%
Name Party Votes Vote %
Lynch, Edward GOP 548 45%
Budd, Joe GOP 481 39%
Price, Curt GOP 195 16%
 

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
If Dillard wins
do you think that he could get teabagged in the GE?  
South of Illinois
Democrats actually picked up a State House seat in Kentucky tonight.

Democrat Terry Mills won big in his base county - and despite losing in the other two counties, picked up the seat for our team.

http://www.elect.ky.gov/NR/exe...

www.electioninfo.wordpress.com

Illinois Primaries Prediction Thread | 30 comments

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