Public Policy Polling (PDF) (1/22-25, likely voters, no trendlines):
Alexi Giannoulias (D): 42
Mark Kirk (R): 34
Undecided: 24
Cheryle Jackson (D): 36
Mark Kirk (R): 38
Undecided: 26
David Hoffman (D): 36
Mark Kirk (R): 37
Undecided: 27
(MoE: ±3%)
Surprisingly nice numbers from PPP on the Senate general election, with Dem state treasurer Alexi Giannoulias putting up a sizable lead against Republican Rep. Mark Kirk, while Kirk barely beats the two other little-known Dems. Giannoulias has favorables of 31/19 (suggesting he's been weathering the Broadway Bank brouhaha all right, although that may have gotten more amped up in the days since this sample was completed, reaching a climax with the consent order the Giannoulias family-owned bank signed with the FDIC on Tuesday) while Kirk is at 27/22. Jackson and Hoffman's main problem, vis-a vis Kirk, seems to be their lower profiles, as their favorables are 16/17 and 16/11 respectively. One other amusing little tidbit: it may be good that Roland Burris isn't attempting to stand for election; his approval is 14/60, the worst PPP has ever seen for a sitting Senator. (See also conspiracy's diary.)
PPP also has gubernatorial numbers from the same sample:
Pat Quinn (D-inc): 35
Jim Ryan (R): 42
Undecided: 24
Pat Quinn (D-inc): 36
Andy McKenna (R): 42
Undecided: 22
Dan Hynes (D): 40
Jim Ryan (R): 35
Undecided: 25
Dan Hynes (D): 38
Andy McKenna (R): 36
Undecided: 26
(MoE: ±3%)
It looks like Pat Quinn may have been fatally wounded by a combination of getting hammered by ads from both Democratic primary challenger Dan Hynes and potential Republican opponent Andy McKenna -- as well as the general anti-incumbent tide these days -- as his approvals have sunk to a dire 25/55. Quinn is also seen losing in November to both McKenna and Republican former AG Jim Ryan, while Hynes (the state's Comptroller) squeaks by both of them, suggesting the problem here is Quinn more so than the Democratic brand. However, it's looking likelier and likelier that Quinn doesn't even make it out of the Democratic primary, as seen not only in PPP's previously reported primary numbers but also new primary numbers from Rasmussen (1/25, likely voters):
Pat Quinn (D-inc): 37
Dan Hynes (D): 43
Some other: 6
Not sure: 14
(MoE: ±6%)
I'd initially had my doubts about why Hynes would want to challenge a sitting Governor when there was an open Senate seat for the taking, but apparently he knew what he was doing -- he knew what Quinn's weaknesses were, how to hit them, and is peaking at the right time. I gotta wonder if Lisa Madigan is second-guessing herself these days for not wanting to take on Quinn when she had the chance.
UPDATE: Rasmussen also just came out with Democratic Senate primary numbers from the same sample, showing both of Giannoulias's challengers topping the 20-percent mark.
Alexi Giannoulias (D): 31
David Hoffman (D): 23
Cheryle Jackson (D): 23
Some other: 9
Not sure: 24
(MoE: ±6%)
RaceTracker: IL-Sen | IL-Gov |
