Market Shares Corp. for the Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV (1/16-20, likely voters, 12/2-8 in parens):
Alexi Giannoulias (D): 34 (31)
Cheryle Jackson (D): 19 (17)
David Hoffman (D): 16 (9)
Other: 5 (8)
Undecided: 26 (35)
Mark Kirk (R): 47 (41)
Patrick Hughes (R): 8 (3)
Other: 10 (10)
Undecided: 35 (46)
(MoE: ±4%)
Public Policy Polling (PDF) (1/22-25, likely voters, no trendlines):
Alexi Giannoulias (D): 32
Cheryle Jackson (D): 18
David Hoffman (D): 20
Other: 3
Undecided: 27
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Mark Kirk (R): 42
Patrick Hughes (R): 9
Other: 11
Undecided: 39
(MoE: ±4.1%)
Remarkably similar numbers from both pollsters in both primaries. It looks like teabagger extraordinaire Patrick Hughes has failed to take much of a bite out of Kirk's hide. The real question is whether Kirk's successful rightward march to head off the likes of Hughes will damage him in the fall - or if he can pull of a charade of Scott Brownian proportions.
On the Dem side, Giannoulias seems to be in the pole position, but the Tribune, at least, seems to think Hoffman is showing some momentum. Time is pretty much out for anyone to make a move, though.
PPP also took a look at the gubernatorial primaries:
Pat Quinn (D-inc): 40
Dan Hynes (D): 41
Undecided: 19
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Kirk Dillard (R): 19
Andy McKenna (R): 17
Bill Brady (R): 16
Jim Ryan (R): 13
Adam Andrzejewski (R): 11
Other: 8
Undecided: 17
(MoE: ±4.1%)
These numbers are also in line with the Tribune's, though Hynes is doing just a hair better here. As for the Republican slate, several of the places are switched from where the Trib had them, but all of the players are still jostling inside a very tight band. Both races are too close to call - but we'll know the answers on Tuesday.
And, as always, SSP will be liveblogging all of the Illinois primaries.
UPDATE: Rasmussen also just put out some numbers:
Andy McKenna (R): 20
Jim Ryan (R): 16
Kirk Dillard (R): 13
Bill Brady (R): 11
Adam Andrzejewski (R): 11
Other: 12
Undecided: 17
(MoE: ±4.5%) |
