Market Shares Corp. for the Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV (1/16-20, likely voters, 12/2-8 in parens):
Pat Quinn (D-inc): 44 (49)
Dan Hynes (D): 40 (23)
Other: 2 (7)
Undecided: 13 (21)
(MoE: ±4%)
These are some pretty remarkable trendlines, though the toplines are very close to a recent Hynes internal, which had him down 44-37. As the Tribune notes, Hynes (the state's Comptroller) has been hammering Quinn on TV, aided by his somewhat surprisingly larger warchest. Hynes's jump is also a tribute to the power of negative campaigning, as this race has turned quite ugly - he's come under fire of late for ads which dredge up hoary old Chicago racial politics. This move may backfire on Hynes, but with the primary just over a week away, there's no doubt that this contest is very much a tossup.
(An aside: For an excellent exegesis on the importance of Harold Washington, Chicago's first black mayor, and how his ascent and untimely death made an indellible mark on the city's politics, I highly recommend Barack Obama's Dreams from My Father. Obama's years as a community organizer in Chicago came during and after Washington's tenure.)
The Tribune also polled the GOP primary:
Andy McKenna (R): 19 (12)
Jim Ryan (R): 18 (26)
Kirk Dillard (R): 14 (9)
Bill Brady (R): 9 (10)
Adam Andrzejewski (R): 7 (6)
Other: 14
Undecided: 17
(MoE: ±4%)
Talk about unsettled - and what a drop for Ryan, the former AG (and not to be confused with disgraced former Gov. George Ryan or disgraced 2004 GOP senate nominee Jack Ryan). I tend to think that Ryan would be the GOP's strongest candidate, but he's suffered at the hands of McKenna (the former state party chair), who, like Hynes, has been blitzing the airwaves. Interestingly, McKenna has also targeted Quinn, which might also help explain Hynes's surge. In any event, much like the Dem primary, this is anybody's race.
The full polling memo is not available online yet, but I'd expect the Tribune to post it here. (It's nice to see the tradmed making better use of resources like Scribd and putting original documents online to allow greater scrutiny.) I also expect that the Trib will release senate numbers soon as well. |
