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LA-Sen: Dardenne Out; Vitter Up Big in Lastest Rasmussen Poll

by: James L.

Thu Jan 21, 2010 at 1:51 AM EST


With SSP focusing its guns on Massachussetts earlier in the week, we held this poll in reserve until things got a little less crazy. Let's have a look.

Rasmussen (1/14, likely voters, 10/15 in parens):

Charlie Melancon (D): 35 (36)
David Vitter (R-inc): 53 (46)
SOther: 4 (5)
Not sure: 8 (13)

Charlie Melancon (D): 31 (33)
Jay Dardenne (R): 53 (46)
Other: 6 (6)
Not sure: 10 (15)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

The second match-up, of course, is now a moot point:

Louisiana Secretary of State Jay Dardenne on Tuesday announced that he will not challenge Sen. David Vitter in the GOP primary this fall, ending months of speculation about the possibility of a high-profile intraparty fight in the Bayou State.

"After much consideration, I have decided not to seek the U.S. Senate seat this year," Dardenne said in a statement. "My family and I thank the many Louisianians who have encouraged me to run, but I believe my role is to serve the people here in Baton Rouge rather than in Washington." [...]

"I have spoken to Sen. Vitter and encouraged him to continue fighting for fiscal responsibility and common sense in our nation's capital," Dardenne said.

A Dardenne run always struck me as more wishful thinking than an active possibility, but Vitter has to be pleased, nonetheless -- this is probably the best week for him in a long time.

RaceTracker Wiki: LA-Sen
James L. :: LA-Sen: Dardenne Out; Vitter Up Big in Lastest Rasmussen Poll
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LA-Sen: Dardenne Out; Vitter Up Big in Lastest Rasmussen Poll | 32 comments
It's not too late for Melancon to return to his House race
but even that in present (very toxic for Democrats, and, especially - in states like Louisiana) is not guaranteed.
Nah he won't return
I think he's making this suicide run for the Senate is because his district is likely to be removed come redistricting.
[ Parent ]
But at least
he could stay for one more term)))
[ Parent ]
I dont get why this is always said
The Democrats still control the state senate and the house the Democrats still have the majority, even if the speaker is a GOPer, who only got that spot because apparently the Gov suggests a speaker and the house complies with the suggestion, which is downright weird and stupid.

Why on earth would a state legislature with Democrats in control eliminate one of their own conservadem brethren?  This has been a meme Ive seen posted all over and never seen any reason to believe this will happen.

[ Parent ]
Melancon obviously believes it
Else he wouldn't be running against Vitter.
[ Parent ]
Louisiana politics
A long time ago, it was certainly understandable that the LA House would agree to the Governor's choice of speaker. Afterall for such a long time they only elected Democrats to state/local offices. So its not like they had to worry about a Republican Speaker. But now theyre starting to elect Republican governors and so youd think theyd be a little more partisan. But, to be fair, I know that even when LA was basically a completely Dem state, there were rival factions within the Dem party (probably between the populist and ultra conservative wing). So it is kind of weird that they had this 'setup' even during those days. As most of the state legislature might be of a rival wing than the gov.
[ Parent ]
I think you are right
I heard someone compare Louisiana with the Alaskan legislature.  Some Republicans in Alaska will join the minority Democratic party and form a coalition.  I can only assume the same in LA, except in the reverse.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
Louisiana has long
and colorful history of struggle between Long (populist) and anti-Long (generally "Bourbon conservative") factions of Democratic party. The second (or their sons and grandsons) mostly merged (may be even created a base) into modern Republican party in state. Though there are still some Democrats in state legislature who are more conservative then majority of Republicans. IMHO - Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama are the only states now where you can still find "really conservative" Democrats - not Heath Shuler- or Jim Marshall-style  moderate-conservatives, but "the real" ones))))
[ Parent ]
Those Democrats
are really Republicans and just havent admitted it to themselves yet.  The realignment will finish itself out, eventually.
[ Parent ]
I don't think Melancon likes Washington anyway
The poster above made a good point.  He may just be using this race as an easy out and what's the worst that could happen?  He gets to be a U.S. Senator.  

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

23, Democrat, IA-2

Yeah
He might as well give it a go if he is being redistricted anyway. He is no spring chicken either.
[ Parent ]
What's the love affair with David Vitter?
I don't understand why Louisianans like Vitter.  He's not done much of anything during his tenure in the senate.  He's got to be one of the luckiest men alive.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
He is a right-wing Republican
In what has become a right-wing Republican state. These people could do anything so long as they don't call themselves "Democrat".
[ Parent ]
Louisiana has changed a lot in the last 13 years
It amazes me that Bill Clinton could carry this state by double digits (1996) and that the first Republican elected to the Senate in Louisiana was David Vitter (2004).  Louisiana, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, and West Virginia have definitely shifted to the Republicans since Bill Clinton left office.  I would include Missouri (won by Clinton both times, Obama lost in 2008) but I haven't lost faith in the Show-Me state yet.  

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
But Happily
There's the flip-side of that. Clinton never won VA, NC and IN, while Obama did. And Obama only barely lost MO. So there are shifts in the Democrats favor. And happily that one line where Republicans have been doing better (Appalachia with that leg out toward Oklahoma) is not a high population area.
I think some "let's look on the bright-side" is called for this week since there's so much doom and gloom about.
[ Parent ]
Amen
NC, VA, and IN shifted to the Dems in 2008.  We have also strengthened our position in NV, NM, OR and WA, solidified our position in the Northeast (particularly NH), and attracted a lot of new voters in PA, OH, and MI.  I think AZ would have gone to Obama if it wasn't for McCain being on the ticket.  The Dakotas, MT, and parts of NE were also in play.  Really, there are only a few states that have swayed away from us (OK, LA, TN, KY, WV, AR), but these are not states that are growing population-wise, but are really stagnant.  TX may come into play later in this decade.  GA might be an interesting state:  major population growth vs. the rural reas.  

Unfortunately, I think LA is a state that really needs to embrace the Democratic party, but have bought into the Jindal mentality too much.

Thanks for mentioning the bright side.  It's desperately needed!

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Maybe he can switch races
If Mitch Landrieu wins the New Orleans mayoral election, there will be a special election for Lt. Governor. He'd probably have a better shot at that race than Senate.
Who the hell convinced Melancon to run?
Did anyone actually expect this guy to beat Vitter with Obama in the White House in a state that Obama lost by 20%?  He should have stayed in his House seat and helped Democrats save the House.  
It only made sense to run..
He would definitely lose his seat in 2012, and in all likelyhood lose it in 2010.  Why not go for the promotion and the longer term?  Vitter is still one of the few GOP incumbents taht can be taken down. Barr being another one.

Vitter is still only slightly above 50%, and most of the state doesn't know Melancon yet.

[ Parent ]
In 2012 - yes
in 2010 - well, i doubt it. He was unopposed in 2008. Yes, political climate was much more favorable to Democrats then, but it didn't prevent Obama from losing heavily and Landrieu from winning (albeit - rather narrowly) in Louisiana that year. Quite likely, knowing that district is, probably, going to be dismantled in 2012, serious Republicans would take another pass in 2010
[ Parent ]
Yeah but
in 2012 there'd be no Senate seat. And really, Vitter should be vulnerable. That said, if there's no big uptick in the Dems fortunes come this summer, I'd write this seat off. I think Burr is the only Republican incumbent I really see as potentially vulnerable right now. (and even he is a real long shot).  
[ Parent ]
He obviously took the gamble
That an inside-straight could topple Vitter. Melancon is 62 already. Landrieu just got re-elected and Jindal likely will be in 2011. So the next shot isn't until 2014 at the earliest. Cannot blame him at all for going for promotion now.
[ Parent ]
Sure
But political climate is now so bad for such challenge... I can imagine him beating Vitter even in 2008, but in 2010? Well, i really doubt..
[ Parent ]
Monday morning quarterbacking...
Things weren't nearly as gloomy when Melancon made his announcement.
[ Parent ]
To be fair
At the time he announced you could count the people on one hand commenting here that thought he could actually win.
[ Parent ]
I'll admit it
I thought he could win. I still do. Will it be easy? Hell no. But is it possible? Yes. Besides, Rasmussen has a well-known non-reality bias.

However, it's true that mine was/is a minority position among SSP commenters.

I would like to point out that the election is still 9 months away, Melancon's fundraising has been solid, his electoral profile is sufficiently centrist, and he's a Cajun. Never underestimate the influence of Cajunness in Louisiana politics. It's how Melancon held a R+12 seat for several terms.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Really tired of Rasmussen
Seems like they're the only ones polling anything, and their results are always skewed toward the GOP. Not to say their results aren't going to be proven accurate in November, but it would be really nice to see some other pollsters helping shape the narrative.
I don't know how many more examples people need
When you compare the Field Poll for example to what he released last week.
[ Parent ]
Campaign Just Beginning
Let's not forget that Melancon's campaign for Senate is just starting. He's very popular, his name name ID should be pretty decent and Vitter is a generic Republican. If Melancon can knock Vitter below 50% he might have a chance at winning on the run off ballot. Remember, anything below 50% for 1 candidate forces an automatic run-off of the top 2 people. He should make it a referendum vote (like Obama did with HRC), Vitter vs. everyone. By focusing on Vitter's failings to help LA post-Katrina and with the job market he can become the "other" candidate and

He has 10 months. If he changes the race 3 points a month he'd win big.

They
got rid of runoff's except for special elections in the state a few years back.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
I really think that needs to be included in every post about Louisiana
because someone inevitably is unaware of that.
[ Parent ]
Status of 7 Texas Congresscritters
Why is it that 18 days after filing closed, we still don't know rhe status of Sam Johnson (TX-03), Ralph Hall (TX-04), Mac Thornberry (TX-13), Ciro Rodriquez (TX-23), Lloyd Doggett (TX-25), Solomon Ortiz (TX-27), and Ray Green (TX-29)? I believe someone earlier indicated that there might be a 10-day delay as the information traveled the bureaucratic maze, but we are now approaching three weeks time.  
LA-Sen: Dardenne Out; Vitter Up Big in Lastest Rasmussen Poll | 32 comments

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