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AR-02: Vic Snyder Will Retire; Could Halter Run?

by: James L.

Fri Jan 15, 2010 at 5:37 PM EST


Bad news:

Snyder released the following statement:

"2010 will be a robust election year during which great forces collide to set the direction for our country for another two years. Over the last several weeks Betsy and I have had discussions with family and friends including other members of Congress (Rep. David Price, Rep. Susan Davis, and our own Sen. Mark Pryor) regarding the appropriate balance between family and congressional service when a family has very young children. I have concluded that these election-year forces are no match for the persuasive and powerful attraction of our three 1-year old boys under the leadership of their 3-year old brother, and I have decided not to run for re-election. It is the greatest professional honor of my life to represent Arkansas in the U.S. House of Representatives, and I am so grateful to the people of Arkansas to have had this wonderful opportunity. That honor will now pass to someone else at the conclusion of this term.

"This decision has not been an easy one. Two weeks ago my campaign manager came on board, but that first morning I advised him to do nothing to begin the campaign because of my doubts regarding running. The onset of the new year, the time I always begin organizing my campaigns, did nothing to remove these doubts.

This seat was already looking to be a very tough hold (especially given that SUSA poll released earlier today showing Snyder trailing ex-US Attorney Tim Griffin by 56-39). Now it looks to be even tougher, unless Democrats can find a candidate sprinkled with magical Mike Beebe dust all over their person in this Little Rock-based district.

UPDATE: Here's an idea for a replacement candidate: Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, who has previously been mulling a run for U.S. Senate. Halter lives in the district (North Little Rock), and was born there, too. I think he'd have to seriously consider the opportunity.

Just to give you a better sense of this district, it has a PVI of R+5. Al Gore lost the CD by 48-49 in 2000, Kerry by 48-51 in 2004, and Obama by 44-54 in 2008. Not a good trend, but that wasn't as bad of a deterioration as seen in the districts held by Marion Berry (AR-01) and Mike Ross (AR-04), where the Democratic share of the vote fell all the way down to the high-30s in 2008.

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AR-02: Vic Snyder Will Retire; Could Halter Run? | 78 comments
Bleh
What a god damn wimp.
LOL, he's in his 60's
And just had triplets in 2008.  With 4 kids age 3 or under, maybe for once a politician really is looking to spend more time with family.

I've never really understood how parents could be away from young children for long periods of time and not feel guilty, though i understand it for some jobs.  

But sheesh 4 young kids, hope he gets a job in Little rock and is home every night.  

[ Parent ]
Wow
I'd suggest reading the statement. He's got four young kids at home, including 3 one year old boys. Can you blame him for wanting to be at home to watch his kids grow up?

He's going above and beyond the simple "my family and i thought about it", instead, he's giving a more in-depth reason, his young kids.

I'm saddened that Rep. Snyder is retiring, but he's putting his family first, and there's nothing at all wrong with that.

Some of the comments on here stun me sometimes.

[ Parent ]
I'm willing to bet
his kids are a convenient excuse, if that were the case, he would've retired months ago.  
[ Parent ]
Normally
Normally I'd agree. However, it just seems that considering the circumstances, having four kids ages 3 and under, getting married and having children later in life, etc, that maybe he really does want to spend time with his family. Remember, they just got off from a Christmas break. I could easily picture Snyder coming to the realization that he'd rather be there to see his kids grow up than to go through a tough campaign.

Sure, the poll numbers might have played a factor, but I really think this is one of those cases where family is not a convenient excuse, it's the truth.

To call him a wimp for wanting to spend time with his wife and young kids is silly.

It's not like he's got high school or college aged kids and he's seen them grow. It's not like he and his wife have been married for decades. Snyder's not a young guy either.

[ Parent ]
Its no excuse
Kids will drive you batty.  Having to listen to your spouse complaining all the time is even worse.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
Thanks, Firedoglake!
I'm sure seeing the extremely-flawed poll that FDL commissioned had some role in Snyder's decision (here is Nate Silver's analysis: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com...

Those people are doing much more harm to our party than good heading into the elections next year.

The good news
is that after the Republicans make gains, Obama will HAVE to deal with them, progressives will accept it and FDLers will become even more irrelevant and isolated.

Good.  

[ Parent ]
And good public policy will go down the drain.
[ Parent ]
Yes well that sucks
but it's not as if FDLers like Jane Hamsher have helped, like, at all.  
[ Parent ]
Or hurt, at all.
If anything they've been trying to keep pressure on, though to no avail I'd have to say.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com
[ Parent ]
I actually think they, specifically, did hurt
but that's another story for another time.  
[ Parent ]
No they hurt
People like them and OpenLeft and some at Kos do more harm than good because they don't understand that in government you sometimes compromise and they if people like Bowers, Sirota and Hamsher dosen't get a bill that perfectly liberal but still a good bill like HCR they rather kill it then let it pass. So sir, they do more harm than good. But like DTO said, lets move on it's a discussion for another time
[ Parent ]
Off-topic I know
I don't know anybody who thinks HCR is actually a "good" bill.  And holy crap, why does ever thread turn into rednecks and suburbanites bashing Open Left, Kos, FDL, etc?  The only effect blogs really have on politics is in their fundraising.  You think anybody else out (that's not a political junkie) could give a crap less what is on a blog?
Some people would like to see pressure on the party from the left.  That is perfectly reasonable.  For two decades, or maybe a little more, there was really no sustained effort to do so (electorally).  So now Lieberman got primaried, Al Wynn got one, Boswell actually had to pretend to be progressive, and centrist are fainting and saying "whatever happened to compromise?"

26, D, MO-05, Hispanic
[ Parent ]
I'd like to add...
I would like to add that I'd still like to see HCR passed.  No matter what, getting 30 million more people health care coverage is a beautiful thing.
But is this really the forum for Kos, FDL, and Bowers bashing?

26, D, MO-05, Hispanic
[ Parent ]
One successful primary in the most Democratic district in Maryland
does not make you a hero for the left.

Think about all the primaries that failed...I can start with Mark Pera, remember him?  

[ Parent ]
many of those "failed" primarys moved all of the candidates
Many of these incumbents have moved to the left.  Look at Sestak and Specter right now.  Specter's voting record has shot to the left over the last 6 months.  Are you really so naive as to believe he would have done that with a clear field?  

26, D, MO-05, Hispanic
[ Parent ]
yeah it made Joe Lieberman pretty liberal too
for a few months in 2006. What happens after they're reelected?  
[ Parent ]
I doubt that had anything to do with Snyder's decision.
Snyder sees tough polls all the time.  It was probably more an accumulation of things.  Snyder was getting on in years and the rumor around the state was that he was moving towards it.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com
[ Parent ]
That poll from SUSA...
was really bordering on the edge of a push poll, if not falling overboard completely.  It only chose to focus on one aspect of the bill, framed questions in a negative light, and never mentioned any of the benefits of the bill that poor people in this country would receive (like the clinic funding Bernie Sanders got added into it).  A commenter on Nate's post (which seems to have been overrun by right-wingers) did ask this poignant question.

"they would be fined up to 2% of their income"

I wonder how different the results would've been if instead they had asked something like:

"Would you favor a tax break so that those who pay for health insurance pay lower taxes than those who don't?"

I think we all know the response would probably be very different, perhaps even a complete reversal.  But without providing any context to their questions, the FDL folks got the responses they wanted, just like when Fox News does opinion polling.

Now, while I don't think the poll was the main reason Snyder got out, it's quite telling that even after all those questions making the bill look like something that would punch you in the balls and then rape your mother, the change in support for a Congressman who would vote for such a supposed monstrosity only changed by a net 6 points, still within the margin of error.

So maybe, just maybe, those right-wing frames FDL employed aren't as effective as some may think.

But it looks like the guy who was deeply involved in the U.S. Attorneys firing scandal may now actually be promoted to U.S. Congressman.  Wow.

BTW, Obama has a 33% approval rating in AR-02 per SUSA (asked before those health care questions), and a 66% disapproval.  This is not friendly territory for Obama by any means.

[ Parent ]
Holy Shit!
There goes are one good representative. FUCK!

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com
Nope your wrong...
He was a DAMN GOOD representative. For the type of district he represented he was pretty relible. Not that I never lost any, but whrn him and Marion Berry casted a yes vote for HCR, I gained respect for him and Berry because one, I support HCR and two it made Mike Ross look like an ass with all the obstruction he did. He will be missed. I'm not worried about this seat, it's based in Little Rock and we got a good bench here, we'll keep this seat. Like to see Halter run, he sounds like a good populist from what I read about him. He have a better chance of becoming a Congressman than Senator i'll say that.
[ Parent ]
Halter It Is, Then!
n/t
Really rather he run for Senate
there's gotta be someone here.  
[ Parent ]
Yeah, Lincoln is DOA ala Chris Dodd
Take one for the team, please.
[ Parent ]
Losing Snyder will be significant in the long run
Like Bart Gordon and Dennis Moore (and Byron Dorgan) Snyder was a good vote in a tough district.

It seems likely that if we do manage to hold this district at all, it will be with a Dem far more conservative than Snyder.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

So havent seen Jsmith around lately
He get banned or what because he would be flipping his shit right now over this.
I was wondering about that
I suspect JSmith has an excellent political mind, but his comments included little actual data - and were far too dogmatic and repetitive.

It's been over a week since his last comment. But statisticians are often busy people. Perhaps he's just slammed with work.  

[ Parent ]
Hm
looks like the "fundraise only in election year" idea is a bad idea when you have this sort of year.

But with term limits and the surplus of Arkansas Democratic legislators, a few good people can be found.

I agree with RBH
This one is not an automatic flip to the Repubs. Given our dominance at a State Level surely a top tier candidate can be found.

2010 Race Tracker Wiki
[ Parent ]
yeah but s/he may not be as liberal as Snyder

[ Parent ]
Shouldn't There Be a Huge Democratic Bench Here?
It is the Little Rock district after all, so I'd think there should be a lot of Democrats here who could make a good race of it. And some of us would like to see Halter focus on the Senate.

Snyder will be missed. He was a very good vote - the person in the delegation who comes closest to following in the footsteps of Dale Bumpers.

If another Democrat wins
it's unlikely s/he will be as liberal as Snyder.

Serves FDL right.  

[ Parent ]
OMG we're gonna lose
OMFG! We're gonna lose the House and Senate! It's 1994 again! Oh noes! Sky is falling! Run away!

I think my Tekzilla impression is coming along nicely.

But seriously, I'd love to keep Halter as an option for the Senate when/if Lincoln retires to spend more time with Vic Snyder's kids. There's gotta be a good State Senator or two just itchin' to move up, yes? Anybody have any good names?

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

Well we're teetering on the edge now
I mean I can count on my hand about 20 seats we're almost certain to lose at this point, and I think I'm being generous

and maybe four we can win, only DE-AL is for sure though.  

[ Parent ]
What 20 seats are we certain to lose?
I can think of maybe 5-6 off the top of my head, and maybe 15-20 that we're in danger of losing (but are certainly not forgone conclusions either).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
My list as of now
ID-01, MS-01, AR-02, AR-01, VA-05, MD-01, AL-02, LA-03, NM-02, KS-03, GA-08, TN-06, TN-08, WA-03, CO-04, FL-24, NJ-02, NH-01, NH-02, NY-29

[ Parent ]
I'm from New Mexico
I guarantee you that at worst, the race for NM-02 is a toss-up at best (Pearce trying to go back for his old seat after his disastrous Senate run (in which he even lost his own district to a Santa Fe-based politician) has hurt his standing, it's a top-tier race to be sure, but that seat isn't lost to us).

Some of these are just ridiculous presumptions on the face of it: MS-01, GA-08, WA-03, CO-04, NH-01, NH-02, and TN-08 these races can't possibly just be considered basically lost without pretty much assuming the Democrats will lose the House; some, such as NM-02, are certainly going to be hard-fought but are still at worst 50-50.

Really, the only races I'd concede as being gone to us in 2010 are ID-01, MD-01, LA-03, and maybe AR-02 (and even that isn't a given considering the deep bench we have in the district).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Ignore what I said about MS-01, GA-08, and TN-08
Mostly because I was just saying we have incumbents in good standing in two of them and a strong contender in TN-08. My overall point remains the same, but I wanted to clarify that a bit.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
No way
Stand by my list below.

Childers (MS-01) is at worst lean Dem.

AR-01? - Arkansas is becoming a trouble spot but it is way too early to concede AR-01.

NJ-03 (you said NJ-02 but that is a GOP district) - this one also lean Dem at the worst. Runyan as candidate will almost ensure a divisve primary.

AL-02 - Too soon to concede Bright.

GA-08 - no way no how. GA-08 for the GOP is like FL-10 or MI-11 for us. ALways on the target list always falling short.

TN-08 can only be a tossup.

WA-03 is D+3 we will be fine here got 2 top tier candidates.

NM-02 - this HAS to be a tossup at worst. Steve Pearce???
NY-29 can only be a tossup - Massa is NOT definitely history.

NH-02 - it is a District carried by Gore, Kerry and Obama - it won't flip.

NH-01 - Lean Dem - This is New Hampshire.

2010 Race Tracker Wiki

[ Parent ]
GA-08
Listing GA-08 is surprising considering the GOP Primary is full of lackluster candidates. None of them can compare to Marshall's previous opponents.

Also, that Primary is going to be nasty. It's not like the last couple of times where Marshall's GOP opponent had no worries in the Primary.

Marshall represents his constituents well, he'll be fine.

[ Parent ]
AL-02
People forget that Bright has a unique base that Roby cannot compare with. Just like Jay Love in 2008, Roby has a Montgomery base, which Bright has as well due to his stint as Mayor.

However, Bright also grew up in the Wiregrass region and they stick together. He's voted his district, not his party. He should be fine.

Also, Roby now has a teabagger named Rick Barber running against her in the Primary. Remember in 2008 Love and Smith's bitter Primary battle helped Bright.

This might be a bad year for Democrats, but it's not just as simple as writing off people like Bright. In some of these districts, there are some important local dynamics at play.

[ Parent ]
oh rubbish
Go on list the 20 certs then.

I can give you all 0f 6 that we are most likely going to lose?
ID-01
KS-03
LA-03
MD-01
TN-06
VA-05

And another 14 that are at worst genuine tossups.
AL-02
AR-02
CO-04
FL-08
NV-03
NM-02
OH-01
OH-15
NY-23
NY-29
PA-07
PA-11
TN-08
VA-02

To be almost certainly partially offset by:
DE-AL
LA-02

and IL-10 will depend on who wins the GOP Primary.

As well as a couple of genuine tossups in GOP districts:
PA-06

And a few that I expect to emerge as genuine tossups:
AZ-03
CA-03
CA-45
MN-03
PA-15
WA-08

And a few that could very easily become toss ups.
AL-03
CA-44
CA-48
FL-10
IL-13
KS-04
MN-06
NE-02
SC-01

Whilst the house landscape is not obviously looking as good as 2006 or 2008 the sky is most definitely not falling in.

2010 Race Tracker Wiki

[ Parent ]
There are arguments for both views
It all depends on the composition of 2010 turnout. Will it be closer to the R2K or the Rasmussen model?

If Coakley loses, will a significant proportion of activists tune out in 2010, cutting the heart out of the turnout machine?

Or will sufficient numbers of '08 activists pick themselves off the floor, no matter what happens in MA in a few days, no matter what happens w/r/t retirements, etc.?

[ Parent ]
no no no arealmlc
You only get 6 out of 10. to get a 9 you have to say "with the retirement of [Insert Dem name here] i think 2010 will be worse than 1994"!

2010 Race Tracker Wiki
[ Parent ]
2010 won't be worse than 1994
I don't see any way we fall below 210 seats, I don't think we fall below 225, but that's still a very decreased majority, and as Snyder and Moore taught us, it might not all be Blue Dogs, might be a combination of them, and will lead to us needing to please conservative Dems and Republicans to get anything done.

The goal should be a more progressive Congress, but instead we're gonna get less of one.

[ Parent ]
um well
My comment to arealmic was snark

2010 Race Tracker Wiki
[ Parent ]
This was my first attempt
So I appreciate the constructive feedback on that.   :)

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
[ Parent ]
Hahahaha
Always a pleasure to be of assistance.

The oh noes is a nice touch too :)

2010 Race Tracker Wiki

[ Parent ]
Would've been an 8 if you'd had the guys running around somewhere ;)

 

 



Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Yeh damn straight DGM :) n/t
[ Parent ]
I found them!



Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
u da man n/t
[ Parent ]
you know, I just talked to a friend of mine
who works down in DC for Carolyn Maloney and we were talking about MA-Sen and this and she said one of the problems is Democrats feel that they've done all they can do and they won't be able to do anything big again after the 2010 elections, so they're cutting now.

One of the things she told me was that for some of these guys, healthcare was their issue and having passed a bill finally, they feel accomplish and want to leave.

She also warned me to expect more retirements after the healthcare bill passes and even some prominent Democrats are talking about possibly losing the House.

alternatively
maybe the health care reform bill degenerating into a giveaway to industry has convinced some House Dems that they'll never be able to accomplish anything useful, so might as well stop wasting their time.
[ Parent ]
um, the people retiring
are the ones who watered it down to begin with.

so, no, that is not a realistic explanation.  

[ Parent ]
Say what?
I'm yet to see the names of anyone who worked to water down health care reform on a list of retiring reps.  Snyder for one certainly wasn't on that list (he was a vote for a bill with a public option you'll recall), nor can I think of anyone else who had a role in weakening the bill.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com
[ Parent ]
Moore, Baird, Gordon, Tanner
three of them voted no an the fourth was one of the Blue Dogs who wanted to water down the public option.
[ Parent ]
Touche.
[ Parent ]
More retirements

are definitely to be expected.  Average stay in the House is 10 years, i.e. 15%+ of the folks in the place turns over each election on average.  The past two elections have been great in terms of involuntary Republican retirements making up any deficits.  :-)  We're up to 20-25 known retirements overall and House Democrats have held off from retirements for two cycles.  So we're due for a bunch.  (I'll guess Rangel, Dingell, Louise Slaughter, Mollohan, mebbe Maxine Waters, and Obey are pretty likely to land on the list.)

There does seem to be a popular sense that the post-1994 internal arrangement of Democrats (leadership circles, establishments/cliques, etc./whatever) is in some kind of breakup and rearrangement.  And the voters seem to (to understate it just slightly) consider it a good thing.

[ Parent ]
I disagree
About 2-3 weeks ago DCCC Chairmn Chris Van Hollen said he expects very few retirements so to say were doing to see a en masse of retirements from Democrats (espically from the ones you named) is absured.
[ Parent ]
there are more filing deadlines coming up
and deadlines are when a lot of people make decisions. Sure, the great majority will stay, as usual, but a few more retirements would be a simple reflection of human nature.
[ Parent ]
Your right
But what Van Hollen said that he only expects a FEW more to retire, not a en masse like what happened in 1994. So yeah of course well see a couple more retirements but that's it.
[ Parent ]
I think we're debating the difference between
"a few"

and

"a very few"

which is somewhat subjective.

[ Parent ]
Halter needs to primary Lincoln, not get wasted here.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
Yeah...
I fail to see what makes 1/435 more attractive than 1/100.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Maybe Lincoln could run in the 2nd (if she lives there?) n/t
[ Parent ]
She lives in the 1st
Marion Berry's district. She represented it before he did  
[ Parent ]
pity n/t
[ Parent ]
My preference would be for Blanche Lincoln to go to hell.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
It's unlikely that you will get your preference.....

[ Parent ]
Wasted?
I'd think Halter would have a better chance at winning this open seat than he would facing Lincoln and a strong Republican.

Lincoln's numbers are terrible, but if I were Halter I'd go for this House seat before a Senate race. He could breeze through a Primary, likely without any major opposition.

Also, he and Lincoln could bloody each other enough during the Senate Primary that neither would have a shot in November.

[ Parent ]
New name is floating around in Arkansas for this one
Term limited State Senator Shane Broadway.  Not sure where he falls on the spectrum exactly, but he is one of the most respected people in state politics by folks of all political stripes.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com
Project Vote Smart data on Broadway is sketchy
ref http://www.votesmart.org/issue...

There's very little recent data - he has '03 ratings of

100 from the AFL-CIO,
100 on health issues

100 most years from the NRA
around 50 from the Sierra Club
about 40 from AR conservatives

[ Parent ]
Project Vote Smart data on Broadway is sketchy
ref http://www.votesmart.org/issue...

There's very little recent data - he has '03 ratings of

100 from the AFL-CIO,
100 on health issues

100 most years from the NRA
around 50 from the Sierra Club
about 40 from AR conservatives

[ Parent ]
I do know
that he's been very good and progressive minded on education (his big thing).  He also got an 86 percent score from the progressive Arkansas Citizens First Congress in '09.  He is from probably the most conservative area of the district, Saline county, and has still managed to be rather progressive and respectable (as compared to the state rep. who's likely to succeed him, alleged Democrat Dawn Creekmore, who runs to the right on social issues in a big way while Broadway generally avoided them).  He's also rather young too-late 30s, so he could hold the seat for awhile.  Lists Dale Bumpers and David Pryor as his political heroes (which could be a good sign).  Plus Little Rock is in this district, and that would probably force him to move to the left a little bit.

Not bad for a quick google search huh?

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com

[ Parent ]
Roundup on all candidates mentioned here in Ark. so far
It's only been a few hours and already people are lining up to consider running or are being considered potential candidates.  So far the names include Bill Halter, sen. Shane Broadway, Little Rock Mayor Mark Stodola, state house speaker Robbie Wills, sen. Bob Johnson (ugh!), former AG candidate Paul Suskie, and one that particularly excites me, state sen. Joyce Elliott who says she's seriously considering running.

I've got profiles of all of them up on Blue Arkansas (though for some odd reason the pics didn't want to line up on the left hand side like I wanted them to, no matter what I did to try and fix the problem-thus explaining why it looks like crap until my tech guy can fix it):

http://bluearkansasblog.com/?p...

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com

Thanks for pointing that out for us ARDem
Like I said, we got a DEEP bench here i'm not worried about this seat. This isn't a goner like Bart Gordon and Charlie Melancon's seats.
[ Parent ]
AR-02: Vic Snyder Will Retire; Could Halter Run? | 78 comments

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