Research 2000 for Blue Mass Group (1/12-13, likely voters, no trendlines):
Martha Coakley (D): 49
Scott Brown (R): 41
Joe Kennedy (L): 5
Undecided: 5
(MoE: ±4%)
Research 2000 checks in with its first poll of the Massachusetts Senate race (although the poll was commissioned by local blog Blue Mass Group, rather than the big orange mothership, not that that should affect the numbers). This is also the first poll taken after Monday's televised debate. They find an eight-point lead for Coakley, obviously much better than the most recent Rasmussen and PPP polls, though still hardly a slam dunk (rather concerning, for instance, is that the Libertarian candidate, Joe Kennedy [no relation to the dynasty], is polling at 5% -- as we saw in New Jersey, third party candidates like that tend to fall off a bit in the final equation, and Libertarian votes seem likelier to gravitate toward Brown).
In the crosstabs, Brown leads 49-36 among independents, which is a much smaller edge than PPP saw. Coakley is leading only 46-45 among whites and is trailing Brown 50-41 in the state's southeast; her lead seems based primarily on non-whites (including an 86-4 lead among blacks) and the Boston area (where she leads 53-37). (Discussion also underway in conspiracy's diary.)
Brown is trying to walk a tightrope here, as he's trying to attract enough support from nationwide tea-party types to attract their dollars, while still keeping them at arms' length enough to keep the votes of local moderates. For instance, he's been avoiding asking the potentially polarizing endorsement of Sarah Palin (and she's been smart enough to not offer it without having been asked). However, he's been saying he's not familiar with the Tea Party movement... a petard on which he's currently being hoisted, as video and photos of him addressing local Tea Party gathering have surfaced (including from his own Flickr account).
Meanwhile, Coakley received the Boston Globe's endorsement (although that shouldn't be any more of a surprise than Brown getting the Herald's endorsement). One other story getting play today is the possibility that it may take weeks to certify the winner of the election, especially if it's close (but even if it's not, as town clerks need to wait at least 10 days for absentee ballots to arrive before certifying their town-level results). Naturally, the right is assuming this is a ploy to give the Democrats enough time to wrap up health care reform before Brown arrives on his white horse to kill it.
UPDATE: I know I've seen lots of talk in the comments that the deal-sealer should be Vicki Kennedy cutting a TV ad on Martha Coakley's behalf, and having that be the campaign's closing argument over the weekend. Via Chuck Todd, it sounds like that's exactly what they're doing. Leaving nothing to chance, the DNC is also reportedly sinking another $150K, but more importantly, a lot more manpower on the ground, into the race.
RaceTracker Wiki: MA-Sen |
