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PA-06: Gerlach Comes Crawling Back

by: Crisitunity

Fri Jan 08, 2010 at 12:12 PM EST


Having flamed out of his gubernatorial bid in the face of AG Tom Corbett's dominance of the Republican primary field, Jim Gerlach's going back to his day job:

Less than 24 hours after Rep. Jim Gerlach (Pa.) dropped his gubernatorial bid, the four-term Republican will announce Friday that he will run for re-election to the House instead.

According to a source familiar with Gerlach's decision, the Congressman is expected to announce he will run for re-election at noon Friday. The same source also confirmed that Gerlach will almost immediately receive the backing of the National Republican Congressional Committee.

This certainly scrambles the PA-06 calculus, especially with the NRCC playing favorites. As we reported yesterday, state Rep. Curt Schroder isn't getting out (at least not yet) from the Republican primary -- and who knows, maybe he can make some hay out of Gerlach's dithering. Look for some winnowing among the various lesser Republicans in the field, though, and possibly even rich guy Steven Welch, who may not want to throw good money after bad. (UPDATE: Welch sounds like he's staying in, too.)

On the Dem side, Doug Pike and Manan Trivedi say they're staying in, too... although this probably diminishes their chances in November (though between the district's Democratic lean and a lot of ammunition to be had from Gerlach's vacillations, Gerlach still has to be seen as the GOP's second-most-vulnerable incumbent).

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Crisitunity :: PA-06: Gerlach Comes Crawling Back
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Can we get Sestak to do the same in PA-07?
This would cancel out our inability to pick this one up.  

While we're dreamin'
can Lentz transfer to PA-6 after Sestak comes back to PA-7 since he seems to be a better challenger than Pike.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Well
He has no campaign manager. But I imagine he'd have a race with Meehan. Strangely, Gerlach staying may not make this more difficult at all. What with the primary, his dithering and his history of narrow wins. Somebody fresh might actually have had a better shot at a clear win.

[ Parent ]
We need 2 things for your scenario to happen......
First, Welch and Schroeder, or at least one of them, must stay in and keep raising a lot of money.  If they both drop out, the odds against us turn long, as we need a nasty primary on Gerlach.

And if there is a well-funded primary challenge, don't assume Gerlach wins it.  He's moderate, who knows who will turn out in a low-turnout GOP House primary with Corbett and Toomey having no serious intraparty challenge upballot, and the wingnuts could dominate and knock out Gerlach.

Second, obviously as this is what's always needed in every district in every election, we need Lentz to run a well-funded and competent general election campaign.

If nothing else, I'll say that the risk of Gerlach getting bloodied or even beaten in a primary means we're in better shape than if he'd been simply running for reelection this entire past year.  He's exposed now within his own party, and that's a real potential problem.

And if Lentz gets Welch or Schroeder in November, I like our chances better than against an already well-liked incumbent.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
This assumes we have Lentz as our nominee in PA-06 rather than PA-07
Which almost certainly will not happen, as (a) he does not live in the 6th district, and (b) I don't see Sestak dropping out of the Senate primary - he has a way better chance against Specter than Gerlach had against Corbett.

That having been said, I think Pike or Trivedi could have equally good odds as Lentz should they prove themselves on the campaign trail, and all the other parts of your scenario play out.

Male, 23, DC-At Large


[ Parent ]
Whoops, you gave me more credit than I deserved!......
I just effed-up and got my districts mixed up.

Yeah, Pike and Trivedi, not Lentz.

I'm Indian-American and have been pretty well plugged into the Indian-American Democratic (most of us are Democrats) scene, but I haven't really followed Trivedi up to now and must admit surprise that he's gained as much traction as he has.  I figured Pike had the inside track, and Trivedi would go nowhere.  But once Trivedi brought in a few serious endorsements and got at least one Pike endorser to go neutral, that really changed the storyline.

I just hope our primary doesn't get ugly.  We need a clear winner who unites the party immediately in the district.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Welch and Schroder are both staying in
n/t

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Probably Lean Republican at this point
If Gerlach can survive 2004, 2006, and 2008, he should survive 2010, especially since Pike doesn't seem to be that great a candidate.


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