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PA-Gov: Gerlach Gets Out

by: Crisitunity

Thu Jan 07, 2010 at 4:40 PM EST


Since there's a spate of dropouts going on, it looks like a prominent Republican decided to get in on the action too. Rep. Jim Gerlach has cut short his bid in the Republican gubernatorial primary, where he's been lagging AG Tom Corbett by gigantic margins. He cites money woes as the driving concern, though:

[Expenses] left me with two choices: either spend all of my time raising money with little time left for meeting with voters; or withdrawing my candidacy and working even harder to serve the public. I am choosing to serve the public - many of whom have graciously rewarded me with their support for nearly two decades.

The big question mark for Dems is whether Gerlach plans to move back into the PA-06 race, which would probably serve to drop this ever-so-slightly-Dem-leaning tossup back to a GOP-leaning hold. Gerlach may be kicking himself for giving up his seat at all, although in the wake of barely escaping Bob Roggio in 2008, it was probably hard to imagine that he might actually have an easier time of it against better opposition in 2010 thanks to changes in the prevailing winds. However, Gerlach's spokesperson says he hasn't ruled anything "in or out" about running in the 6th. For starters, it's not clear which of the myriad GOPers already running to replace Gerlach would stand down if Gerlach got back in the race.

UPDATE: While it's not exactly concrete, GOP state Rep. Curt Schroder is indicating that he's going to stay in the PA-06 race even if Gerlach goes for another term.

RaceTracker Wiki: PA-Gov

Crisitunity :: PA-Gov: Gerlach Gets Out
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If he gets back in
It would be easy to paint him as a ditherer.

I had wondered about this
But I didn't have anything more to go on than wondering whether or not Gerlach was really willing to make a quixotic primary run against Corbett.

Can't imagine everyone clearning out on the Republican side if he decides to get back into the Congressional race, but if I was him I'd rather battle it out than end my Congressional career with an aborted statewide run.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09


Casey is an option in 2012 I guess
Not that he would win that either.

[ Parent ]
For Gerlach to run against


[ Parent ]
He had a better shot against Corbett
Casey will be very safe for a long time.  Add to that the Philly turnout for the Reelect, no way.

It is possible that the district gets chopped up so that Allyson Schwartz ends up representing the bulk of this district in 2012.


[ Parent ]
As I said an option
Not a very good one but an option.

[ Parent ]
Uggh I wanted to see Gerlach finally loose an election


Bright side!
He might yet! He's definitely shaking loose of the Gov race. And of course, I'm sure you meant you wanted him to lose an election. Which is why I said he might yet!

This will hurt his chances of retaining his congressional seat, yes/no? It probably helped his "stature" but who knows if voters care about that. If it raised his name recognition in a non-negative way, it wasn't a total loss, I guess?

Will voters even remember his brief entry into the gube race? Or will his opponents (D & R) remind them about it constantly?

My thought is that this race should now be a Tossup because really, the one thing we know about 2010 is that it will be, for lack of a better term, a total clusterfark. This is definitely one of those races where who the heck knows what will happen....

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
My prediction
A tearful, late-night phone call in which Pete Sessions pledges his undying love is enough to bring Jim Gerlach back into PA-06.

Curt Schroeder defers, as he and Gerlach are close, IIRC.

In November, Gerlach once again wins re-election by the skin of his teeth.

Sorry, but Lucy pulls away that football every single time.

Male, 23, DC-At Large


Well played, JFM110
Good analysis and this is precious....
A tearful, late-night phone call in which Pete Sessions pledges his undying love is enough to bring Jim Gerlach back into PA-06.

Oh, Pete Sessions, he understands Mark Sanford and his Argentinian soulmate because he still carries a torch for his poor incarcerated Allen Stanford.   :(

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
Hahaha


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Not really cricket, is it?
 

[ Parent ]
CQ confirms it
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...

Moves the race from tossup to leans Republican.


[ Parent ]
As well it ought to be
The DCCC needs to start combing everything Gerlach has said and done over the past year.  I haven't been following PA-Gov too closely, but it wouldn't surprise me in the least if, in an effort to get through a statewide GOP primary, he's been taking positions well to the right of his district. Plus, the general anti-incumbent mood could be a boost to the eventual Dem nominee.

Still, bad news over all.

Male, 23, DC-At Large


[ Parent ]
Actually I think this race moves from Lean D to toss-up, not Lean R
Yes Gerlach surived 2008 but he had a very weak opponnet. 2010 is shaping up to be better for Republicans, but on the other hand the Democratic candidates (Doug Pike and  Manan Trivedi) are much stronger than Riggio in 2008. I feel that the strength of the Democratic candidates is stronger than the national pro-GOP mood in 2010 for PA-06, so I don't think Gerlach is going to have an easier time. Especially if the field doesn't clear for Gerlach in the GOP primary. If Schroder stays in the primary, then Gerlach could very well be damaged by explaining his brief gubernetorial run and other issues. Then Gerlach would be weak in the general election, and in a D+4 district that voted for Obama by double digits, its going to be tough despite the pro-GOP enviroment elsewhere. However, if Schroder does step aside then perhaps it could move to lean R, but it's still a toss-up in my opinion because Democrats are actually putting a focus on this district as one of their few pick up opportunities.

[ Parent ]
Welch is staying in


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
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