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CO-Gov: McInnis Leads Other Possible Dems

by: Crisitunity

Thu Jan 07, 2010 at 12:26 PM EST


Rasmussen (1/6, likely voters):

John Hickenlooper (D): 42
Scott McInnis (R): 45
Some other: 5
Don't know: 8

John (or Ken?) Salazar (D): 41
Scott McInnis (R): 47
Some other: 2
Don't know: 9

Andrew Romanoff (D): 37
Scott McInnis (R): 47
Some other: 6
Don't know: 11
(MoE: ±4%)

Rasmussen strikes quickly to check out potential matchups between Republican ex-Rep. Scott McInnis and possible Democratic candidates, now that Gov. Bill Ritter has decided not to run for re-election. They find that Denver mayor John Hickenlooper fares the best of the three options, while former House speaker (and current Senate primary candidate, where he's making no headway against the eminently beatable Michael Bennet) Andrew Romanoff does the worst.

You may notice the very strange configuration of John (or Ken?) Salazar above. That's because, depending on where you look, Rasmussen is listing both names. Their article says Ken (the Interior Sec. and former Senator), which would make more sense, as his interest in the race has been loud and public, but the toplines page and the Pollster.com writeup say John (the CO-03 Rep.), which would make much less sense, as he not only hasn't expressed interest in the race but has been speaking on his brother's behalf. Rasmussen Reports? You decide.

RaceTracker: CO-Gov

Crisitunity :: CO-Gov: McInnis Leads Other Possible Dems
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After adjusting for Rasmussen
Hickenlooper's numbers are pretty good; the others a bit further down, but this is an early stage.

Yeah, Hickenlooper is clearly ahead
Hick has at least a four point lead after the Ras adjustment, and he hasn't even declared.  

This confirms the race has moved to Lean Dem.


[ Parent ]
Pollster makes lots of those errors too
Others are coming so I'll reserve judgment until then.

I'm tired of one-day Rasmussen polls
with or without name mix-ups.

CO
Hoping for Hickenlooper in this one.  

29/D/Male/NY-01

Salazar (Neither Ken or John) is not running!
Per Teagan via Fix tweet on political wire

http://politicalwire.com/archi...

Not sure if one should consider McInnis strong against the Hick as there has been very little campaigning so far. The Denver suburbs of Arapahoe, Jefferson and Adams county will decide the race. If Hick is strong there, (and I hope he his) he'll win, O/w McInnis may take it.

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  


Hicklenlooper would probably do better than Bill Ritter did in 2006 and Ras knows it
PPP had Hickenlooper beating former popular governor Bill Owens by 14 points for the senate contest. Hickenlooper will wipe the floor with McInnis. I expect the final results to be somewhere around
62% Hickenlooper
35% McInnis

2010 is not 2006.
I expect the final results to be somewhere around
62% Hickenlooper
35% McInnis

Good grief. Please, heal thyself.  


[ Parent ]
It has nothing to do with the year Hickenlooper is extremely popular in Colorado, sort of like Carnahan is Missouri or Blumenthal in Connecticut or Cuomo in New York


[ Parent ]
It has to do with the year too
My thoughts would be more like:

Hickenlooper 52, McInnis 47
Carnahan 52, Blunt 47
Blumenthal 62, Simmons 37
Cuomo 66, Lazio 33

Going to be a somewhat challenging year even for strong D candidates in swing states.  

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


[ Parent ]
62% in a purple state, bad-year election isn't gonna happen...
But I could see Hickenlooper getting 55%+ of the vote, even against the lousy backdrop. The other day I found and posted an April 2009 poll which had Hickenlooper with 70%+ approval ratings in the Front Range (basically greater Denver -- Fort Collins to Colorado Springs). They could want to hang Democrats in effigy in Grand Junction, and with numbers like that in eastern Colorado, he'd still win.

And he'll goose turnout in Denver, which is important for pulling Bennet through.


[ Parent ]
Bad election year?
If the election was held now it would be bad, but by election day I'm guessing it will be a neutral year, but that is assuming some things happen.

[ Parent ]
It will still lean Republican
But only in the sense of your average first presidential midterm.

[ Parent ]
Given where things are currently...
.. you can only assume it will be a GOP year.  The question is to what degree.  History and the current trend dictates as much.

A lot can change in 10 months, but unemployment is a critical number to watch, as is Obama's approval ratings.

So what kind of GOPer is McInnis.  I know his name, but don't remember much about his prior races.

Is he a nutty teabagger (is that a pun?) or a Chamber of Commerce type.  Evangelical at all?  


[ Parent ]
McInnis
is essentially a Chamber of Commerce type.  Anti-choice and anti-LGBT to be certain, but he won't scream it to the rafters...and he's not a teabagger by any means. He's just a classically conservative, mostly-sane, garden variety GOPer.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
Bad year
Midyear elections go poorly for the party that controls the White House. If the Dems end up limiting their losses to a dozen or so seats in Congress and no net losses in the Senate, I think we'd all be delighted, but that's still a worse environment than 2006 or 2008. If Hickenlooper had run in 2006, I think he might have delivered that kind of pasting, although he'd be getting hurt by the economy more now.

[ Parent ]
Read somewhere
the economy is about to start having a net gain of jobs.  When that happens, it'll probably coincide with health care reform getting passed.  It'll be a good couple of months for the Democrats if we play them right.

[ Parent ]

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