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MI-Gov: Cherry Drops Out

by: James L.

Tue Jan 05, 2010 at 12:28 PM EST


Big news:

Lt. Gov. John Cherry ended his sputtering Democratic campaign for governor, saying he was unable to raise the money he needed.

"I was not successful in that endeavor to the degree that was needed. With that in mind, I have come to the conclusion that to wage a successful campaign will be difficult at best," Cherry said in a prepared statement.

Cherry, who had not formally announced his candidacy, expressed disappointment for those who had worked on his campaign and contributed money.

Given that Cherry had some significant troubles in the polls, this move is probably a good thing for Democrats. Perhaps someone with fewer connections to the Granholm administration like Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero will seize upon this opportunity.

UPDATE (Crisituntiy): Politico has a few other tidbits, in a piece provocatively titled "Dems cheer Cherry's exit from race:" for starters, it sounds like Cherry may have been shown the door (or at least pointed in that direction) by Beltway Democrats.

Cherry was in Washington last month to meet with Democratic officials, where they showed him bleak polling numbers and questioned whether he would be able to win the contest.

The article also states that multiple Democratic sources say state House speaker Andy Dillon will be entering the race. (Dillon has already made his interest in the race known and has shown up often in polls of the Democratic primary, but hasn't taken official steps yet.) Dillon has had poor relations with organized labor, though, and would probably still draw a serious challenge. Politico also says that Lansing mayor Virg Bernero, as speculated above, is "also expected" to enter the race, although they don't even rely on unidentified sources for that.

Also, a variety of minor Dems are already in the race and presumably now more motivated to stay in: state Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith, former state Rep. John Freeman, Flint mayor Don Williamson, and MSU trustee (and former football coach) George Perles. The removal of front-running Cherry mightily scrambles the field -- but given Cherry's weak numbers and weak fundraising, we may in fact be better off rolling the dice on someone else here.

RaceTracker Wiki: MI-Gov

James L. :: MI-Gov: Cherry Drops Out
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Wanted: Dem Outsider w/ big bucks and change message
Can be from MI's private sector or a state legislator with good independent record. This a classic case of MI voters prepared to go for a new like NJ votes did. Mike Cox, the probable GOP nominee, is a two-faced hypocritical opportunist that coudl still win if viewed as the non-incumbent, of course, this won't be the case if the Dems find an outsider to run a change message (see AK: Murkowski to Palin; CT: Rowland to Rell; WV: Wise to Manchin )

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  


If this were 2012, I think both parties would try to draft Alan Mulally
Mulally is the current CEO and apparent savior of Ford. But there's no hint from his past contributions whether he's a D or an R - he contributes to both, I suspect primarily to supporters of the company he works for (he used to be Pres of the Boeing Commercial Airplane Group).

But the turnaround of Ford is still a work in progress, so it's a bit soon for him.


[ Parent ]
Cox isn't the "probable GOP nominee"
He has by no means won the nomination.  He's basically tied with Hoekstra.  The campaign has barely started yet.  I think Cox and Hoesktra will split the conservative vote and Mike Bouchard will be the nominee.  

[ Parent ]
Sorry i meant to post this embedded video


[ Parent ]
Did you link intend to go to polls
about water boarding, torture, and terrorism in general?  Because if so, I dont get the connection....

[ Parent ]
No the link was actually meant to be the embedded videoof Virg Bernero but I accidently posted the link from that poll because I had used it before
sorry about that, but yeah, if Hoekstra wins the primary, then we can be sure terrorism will be an issue.

[ Parent ]
Dennis Archer?
For most of 2008, former Detroit Mayor Dennis Archer was considering running, but eventually decided to sit the race out. I always assumed it was because Cherry had everything locked up. He might be reconsidering.

From where I sit as a complete non-expert, I'd say that Archer, Dillon (ugh), and Bernero are in a good position to put together strong campaigns, with maybe a surprise by someone unknown. Maybe a David Bonior comeback? Bart Stupak ditches the House and abortion/HCR for the governor's mansion? But until some strong candidates emerge, we're just as far behind as if Cherry stayed in-- it's only good news depending on who jumps into the race. The next couple of weeks will determine everything.

Regardless, I do think it's a shame that John Cherry won't have a shot at being governor. He's not inspiring and he's not flashy, but he really seems competent and thoughtful. He just couldn't make it happen as a candidate.


Didn't take long
Via a comment at Michigan Liberal, Gongwer News Service (fairly reliable for Michigan politics) says Archer won't run. But people are talking about a different name-- Dan Kildee, nephew of Congressman Dale Kildee.

So. Take that for what it's worth.


[ Parent ]
I'm disappointed
I think Cherry was a better candidate than most people gave him credit for.  He wasn't the political star that Granholm was but few people are.  He was seen as a horrible candidate because everyone kept calling him a horrible candidate.  It was a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Cherry was the best chance to win.  Dillon is a DINO and won't get the base (I won't vote for him).  Bernero is unknown, as is Alma Wheeler Smith.  I'm not sure who should be the nominee now.  


I'd love the idea of a Bonior Comeback
but I doubt he could make it out of a primary.  He is a Cathoilic and staunchly pro-life.  In every other respect he is as liberal or more liberal than any other MI Dem.  But, the fact that he was pro-life killed him against Granholm and I'm guessing it would stop him again.

For what it is worth I think he'd make a fantastic governor.

In the interests of full disclosure I drove to Michigan in 2000 to volunteer on his House campaign for a few days.  In addition to being a good rep and a good politician he really struck me as a genuinely good guy.


[ Parent ]
Would being pro-life be that big of a deal in a statewide Dem primary, though?
As I thought blue collar voters made up most of the Dem electorate there. Maybe theyre pro-choice, maybe theyre pro-life, i really dont know, but i doubt abortion is a major concern of theirs in a Democratic primary. But if socially liberal white collar professionals are actually the force in a statewide Dem primary then i can see it being a factor. But I have a feeling they arent. But I do think that as far as the Dem establishment goes...theyd seriously push for a pro-choicer. Not for purity reasons but because this isnt Alabama and you dont need to be pro-life to win statewide in MI. And the establishment being all against you will hurt your chances. But while the establishment has a great deal of sway in an election they arent the ultimate 'decider'. And I think if Bonoir wins itd be because of his economic platform and not his social one. As said, I think very few blue collar Dems will vote in a primary because of social issues.  

[ Parent ]
There's a simple response to that:
"What do you think is the biggest challenge Michigan will face for the next four years? Is it abortion, or is it the economy? I can't convert you to my views on abortion, but I will fix this economy."

Deliberately trying to put aside culture war issues doesn't normally work. But Michigan is in enough trouble that it just might this time.


[ Parent ]
Any chance Stabenow jumps in?
She was polled awhile back by a Detroit-area news station, and could easily raise the money, not to mention have the statewide name rec, to be an extremely credible candidate.  Any word if she's considering it now?

I think the nomination is Dillon's for the taking
Dillon is the outsider in this race; his proposal to put all state employees in a single health insurance pool along with most other state municipal agencies was truly radical for a state Democrat.

I think Dillon has the best shot at this because he has consistently stood apart from the Granholm administration and does not appear beholden to Big Labor...


This is Michigan
Big Labor is incredibly powerful in the primary. Unless Dillon does much better in general election match-ups - and with his low name rec I find it unlikely that will happen before the primary - he'll be comprehensively steamrolled by the unions.

[ Parent ]
Dillon will face significant problems with the base.
I'm no union member but that includes me. Anyone who knows anything about state politics knows that he's a DINO.

Virg Bernero, on the other hand, is just the crusading economic populist the Democratic party needs to run in this state to win. People here are ANGRY about the economy, and right or wrong they blame Granholm for some of the mess. I think there's a strong inclination here to roll the dice with the Republicans, but that may change with Bernero. He's also great on gay rights. His obvious drawback is name rec, but it's not like everyone's going around with "Dillon" on their lips, either.


Carl Marlinga for Gov
Mr. Marlinga needs to forget about wasting time in the State Senate.

Cox can lose statewide because he is not from Grand Rapids.

To win a Republican must turnout money and support from Grand Rapids, like John Engler.

Cox ---- like Granholm --- is a McNamara Machine tool from Livonia.

Any Democrat from Wayne County or Detroit (Archer) will lose statewide because they are all tainted by the stink of the McNamara Machine.

Ficano is corrupt and actually worse than McNamara, because he is totally incompetent.

The Democrats only way to win statewide is with a Macomb County Democrat, such as Sheriff Mark Hackel or Carl Marlinga.

Both Marlinga and Bonoir are UAW loyalists. The UAW hates Dillon

Just like Fieger, Marlingas past troubles could endear him to voters in the states urban areas such as Detroit and Flint.

Marlinga the outsider with insider experience, vs. Cox the self-serving windbag.

Marlinga vs. Cox would equal a narrow victory for the Democrats.  


Uhhhh
I guess all I'll say is, when comparing your candidate to Geoffrey Fieger (here and here for starters) is a positive, you've got problems.

I mean, I don't know much about Carl Marlinga, but I'm guessing it'd be hard to win when every news article will include, "Marlinga, who faced federal corruption charges in 2006..." I just don't think Fieger's "problems" endeared him to anyone.


[ Parent ]
Marlinga for GOV
Fieger won the DEM Primary by an huge majority.

Don't forget Marlinga was found Innocent...or does that even matter????


[ Parent ]

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