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SSP Daily Digest: 12/22

by: James L.

Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 5:07 PM EST


CT-Sen: In an effort to calm fears that he's facing an unwinnable path to re-election, Chris Dodd's campaign released an internal poll that's... well... pretty fugly. The GQR poll has ex-Rep. Chris Simmons leading by 51-46, while Dodd and former WWE CEO Linda McMahon are tied at 46% each. McMahon, for her part, released an internal poll showing her leading Simmons by two in the Republican primary. Mmmm... cat fud.

FL-Sen: Big trouble in South Florida for Charlie Crist? GOP Reps. Mario and Lincoln Diaz-Balart have suddenly and unilaterally rescinded their endorsements of Crist's senatorial campaign. The Diaz-Balarts offered no explanation as to why they're leaving Crist to hang, but Lincoln offered this cryptic elaboration: Crist "left us no alternative and he knows why." Is a Marco Rubio endorsement forthcoming?

GA-Gov: Republican SoS Karen Handel, who is very much the underdog in the GOP primary, announced today that she will be resigning from her office to concentrate on her gubernatorial bid. This will allow her to raise money during the legislative session -- something her opponents currently holding political office will not be able to do.

IA-Gov: The Terry Branstad comeback express keeps chugging along -- and it picked up another passenger today, as state Sen. Jerry Behn dropped out of the gubernatorial race today and handed Branstad his endorsement.

RI-Gov: Lincoln Chafee will make a "major announcement" sometime after New Year's Day, presumably to make his candidacy for Rhode Island Governor official.

SC-Gov: InsiderAdvantage takes a look at the Dem and GOP primary fields, and finds some pretty wide-open contests. For the Republicans, the McCain-backed state AG Henry McMaster and Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer are tied at 22%, with Sanford protege Nikki Haley at 13%, and the House of Representative's very own "Some Dude", Gresham Barrett, lagging behind at 9%. For the Dems, state Superintendent Jim Rex leads with 21% to lobbyist Dwight Drake's 15%. State Sen. Vince Sheheen has 8%.

CA-20: Dem Rep. Jim Costa may be facing a legitimate challenger next year... but one whom he already beat. Term-limited state Sen. Roy Ashburn, who lost an open seat race to Costa in 2004 by 7%, said he's considering running for Congress again after ruling it out earlier. Local Republicans don't sound too thrilled, though, pointing out Ashburn's less than completely brain-dead record on opposing tax hikes.

PA-10: Sophomore Dem Rep. Chris Carney has had a charmed start to his second term up until this point, managing to avoid any serious Republican competition from emerging. However, that streak has ended in recent weeks with the interest of state Rep. Mike Peifer and ex-US Attorney Tom Marino in the race. On the bright side, Peifer announced yesterday that he won't be running, after all, but can we read that as a tea leaf that Marino is pretty serious about making this candidacy happen?

PA-19: Here's another reason why GOP Rep. Todd Platts should hope that he lands the job as head of the GAO: he's now facing a primary challenge from freedom-loving businessman Mike Smeltzer. Maybe Platts would rather just retire than be forced to defend his Main Street Partnership-style voting record?

SC-05: Republicans made their list, but now they better check it twice. The office of veteran Dem Rep. John Spratt confirmed yesterday that Spratt will indeed run for another term next year in spite of Republican-fueled speculation that he was looking for the exits.

Pollsters & Scoundrels: Pollster.com's Mark Blumenthal offers a wrap-up of the strange, strange saga of Strategic Vision LLC.

Approvals: Seeking approval? Don't look at me -- go talk to SUSA; they've just released a ton of approval ratings for Senators and Governors across the nation. On your station.

James L. :: SSP Daily Digest: 12/22
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Crist, I-Florida
I think this is coming. It's now become undeniably clear that if he continues to run as a Republican, he will be hit by the oncoming train that's the light at the end of the tunnel.

Your thoughts, everyone?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


Decent chance of that I think
Best chance for Meek would probably be in a three-way. But also wonder if he tries to run for re-election instead. Though he probably has similar problems there with McCollum.

[ Parent ]
Yeah, I think if Crist tries
to return to the governor's race at this point, the sharks will follow him there.

[ Parent ]
Crist is a decent Republican
who believes in governing from the middle, much like the moderate Dems I complain about, so I recognize my own bias here.  

But the poor guy is part of what will probably become a handful of decent, moderate Republican candidates who general election voters will support overwhelmingly but who may become doomed in a GOP primary.  The other is Olympia Snowe, which is plain bullshit even more so compared to Crist.  The general election would give her +70% of the vote yet she cant win a GOP primary?

It'd certainly be awesome to win these seats and build on our majority, but this is just simply not right and it speaks volumes to America's lack of participation in the primary electoral process.

::sigh::  Mixed feelings and not sure how to resolve them.


[ Parent ]
Many of our wins
 In 2006 and 2008 were against moderate Republicans. In the Senate, we knocked out moderates Mike Dewine and Lincoln Chafee. In the House in 2006, we probably knocked out more conservatives but we definitely knocked out a substansial number of moderates too (we gained 10 seats in the Northeast, 30% of our total gains.) We knocked off a few moderate Republicans like Jim Leach in the Midwest too. If you want to know where the moderate Republicans went, you should probably check 2006. 2008 did not knock out as many moderates.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


[ Parent ]
I could see some of those defeated Repubs voting for the Health Care bill
Especially Leach and Gilchrest (defeated in primary, of course). Most of the other defeated moderates, if not all, seem to be socially moderate but fiscally conservative and thus would vote against such a bill. If Boehlert were to have ran for re-election, and won both in 2006 and 2008, maybe hed have voted for it too as he seemed like an 'overall moderate'. Chafee, in the Senate, would have definitely voted for it IMO. But obviously, even if they all were in Congress today, its not guarantee theyd even still caucus with the GOP.  

[ Parent ]
Was Dewine really a moderate?
I remember him as an annoyingly partisan conservative Republican and a sanctimonious leader of the witchhunt against President Clinton. But I haven't checked any stats on his voting record, and after all, I tend to consider almost all recent Republican members of both Houses right-wing. Not Chafee, though.  

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
DeWine
I thought he was considered a moderate and believe he was a Gang of 15 member. But by 2006 he was unpopular even with independents. Republicans werent thrilled about him either because they didnt think he was conservative enough. Though considered a moderate he was never one of the most moderate in the Senate GOP caucus. Definitely no Snowe, Collins, Specter, Chafee, etc.  

[ Parent ]
He led Republican
whitewashing of the Iran-Contra folks in the House (he was still a Representative then). I remember Larry King saying "To err is human; to forgive, DeWine."

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Me and FL, actually, have alot of moderate Republicans
Although the GOP is shifting right in both of those states and, even more unfortunately for Crist, a good deal of moderate Repubs in FL are Cubans...and they could back Rubio en masse.  

[ Parent ]
But still moderate Cuban GOPers
Are a small sample of the GOP electorate there. unless the GOP primary is extremely close their vote wont be critical, IMO.

[ Parent ]
I think the politics are easier
if he just goes all the way across the aisle. Certainly he'd have a firmer base on which he could rely.  

[ Parent ]
But could he win a Dem primary
I have my doubts. Just coming out wouldn't be enough and I can't see Meek dropping out for him.

[ Parent ]
Yes, I do think he could
Didn't Markos poll this a bit ago?

[ Parent ]
Meek wins Dems 57-19
With Crist as the Republican nominee. And very similar (56-17) with Crist as an idependent.

[ Parent ]
Not going to happen!
Not going to happen! Crist wants to be President someday and party switchers dont move up like that.

He wants to be in the Senate so he can bide his time for the right shot at the WH or at least be around to get a call for VP.

He's sticking with the GOP and will move right to try and beat Rubio.


Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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[ Parent ]
I agree that is what he'll try
But what happens if conservatives don't want to listen?

[ Parent ]
I'm doubtful Crist can win in either primary...
There's probably enough RINOS and conservaDems out there for him to win 45% in either one, but I suspect Floridians as a whole just aren't enthused-enough about the guy for him to win anything. If he runs as an Indie, we probably have a three-way barnburner on our hands, which is the best case scenario Meek can ask for.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Crist, Comes Out-Florida
The one bit of recent news was Crist and his not being with his beard, err wife, on their anniversary.  She may be set to out the sham, or he might, in which case that could be what the brothers are refering to.

Of course, him switching to Independant woud be a more obvious reason.


[ Parent ]
My thoughts . . .
Crist has been running for Senate for a little under a year. I went to his website just now, and noticed something . . .

http://www.charliecrist.com/is...

What's missing?

Additionally, for a guy who has been trying to stake out his conservative and GOP credentials, on his home page the word "republican" is nowhere, "gop" is nowhere, and "Conservative" is mentioned once in reference to business practices.

Even his statement on Healthcare is weak, hitting the bill on spending and lack of GOP votes, not on anything more concrete. Any southern Blue Dog (Taylor, Bright, Childers, Boyd, Minick, etc) could have written this:  http://www.charliecrist.com/ne...

It sounds to me like Crist is getting ready to switch parties. Likely by Mid-February.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


[ Parent ]
As a Dem
Crist would have to shift to the left on many key issues to be accepted as a Dem, though. Hes pretty good for a Republican, especially for a southern one, but still hed be a very conservative Democrat if he kept his current ideology. But if he switched i think he would flip on some issues. As most switchers do. And after a while it may seem like he was never a Republican.

[ Parent ]
AL-05
Does anyone else think that Griffin's abandonment of the Democratic party was stupid and short-sighted?  If he had stayed a Democrat, he probably would have had a 60% or so chance of being re-elected.  However, as a Republican, I seriously question his ability to win a Republican primary, especially given the Tea-Baggers and their purity tests.  If he lost a Republican primary, that would defeat the whole purpose of his switch.

Maybe he did it for truly ideological reasons
Because I agree it isn't logica in terms of winning re-election. Both Repubs have confirmed they are staying in and are bashing him on voting with Pelosi 85% of the time.

[ Parent ]
Griffith's
got the Sarah Palin seal of approval. Wonder if the teabaggers will disobey their queen now....

http://twitter.com/SarahPalinU...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12


[ Parent ]
I can see her saying...
'well, you know, gosh darnit i never said i was supporting him in the primary...just that im happy he chose us over the Democrat Party'. And perhaps she was very careful not to outright endorse him for re-election.  

[ Parent ]
Odd
As I mentioned in the other thread, it is strange for Griffith to switch. Yes, I know he made some disparaging remarks about Speaker Pelosi, and yes, I know he's voted against most of the President/Leaderships "important" agenda.

1) AL-05 is historically Democratic and while it is trending Republican, it has never elected a Republican to the House. It routinely votes GOP for President, but it is a Democratic friendly district and Democrats generally have no trouble winning. Basically, it's not like the district was historically Republican (ie: Bright's district).

2) The nastiness of the race in '08 is another reason I am surprised Griffith switched. The GOP in general, not just Wayne Praker, went very negative against him. As the Politico article discusses, he was portrayed as soft on terrorism and had his background as an Oncologist questioned severely. It just seems that the tone of the 2008 race would have made him not want to be involved with the GOP considering how personal the race ended up being. I know it's politics, and maybe I am over-reacting in this situation, but the 2008 race was extremely, extremely nasty. I seem to remember a GOP attack site that questioned Griffith's medical ethics and business background.

3. The Democratic base in the district has been angry as Griffith for awhile, and many speculated a lot of voters might not show up in 2010, however, this switch could possibly embolden the base.

I think he seriously hurt his chances. He wouldn't have had any decent opposition in a Democratic Primary, but he'll certainly have a strong GOP challenger, and then possibly face a strong Democrat in the General.

Now, as far as his re-election chances, here are some thoughts:

1) The main GOP candidate, Madison County Commissioner Mo Brooks, has done very well with fundraising, raising over 100k and having the unofficial support of the NRCC.

2) Brooks ran for Lt. Gov in 2006, receiving only 15% in the GOP Primary and while that's not a great showing, his base is considered extremely loyal. I have no idea how he did in the district during that race, but if his base is as loyal as I've read, he'll have the ability to tap into fundraising and other support tools.

3) Brooks, like Griffith, has his base in the main hub of the district, Madison County (Huntsville). Most of the counties were close anyway in 2008, but Brooks could eat into Griffith's numbers in Madison County.

It might come down to who the party leaders support. Griffith voted the Democratic line 85% of the time. I'd expect that number will pop up quite a bit. Griffith is conservative, but he's not the rabid type that makes up the GOP base at the moment.


[ Parent ]
It took a little bit of maneuvering
But the following is the 2006 Republican Lt. Gov. primary in Alabama.

http://uselectionatlas.org/RES...

And yes, you are right that Brooks has a very loyal base.


[ Parent ]
Maybe...
a 3rd party teabagger will run and Democrats win.

[ Parent ]
Anyone
in Florida know how Sen. LeMieux got slapped with nicknames like "Frenchy" or "French man"?

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

Well, his name probably has something to do with it...
Methinks any politician outside Louisiana with a silent 'x' at the end of his name is going to come up against at least a sliver of Francophobia.

Male, 23, DC-At Large

[ Parent ]
Wonder if hes french, french-canadian or cajun/acadian
Lots of cajun/acadians here in TX so its conceivable some moved to FL, too. Some similar industries such as the sugar cane industry, i believe.

[ Parent ]
Anybody still doubt Schumer should be Majority Leader?
That pic is so win.
I keep looking for quotes and inside stories on Schumer and Reid. Likely stuff like "Chuck openly supports Sen. Reid for re-election and wishes for his return but behind closed doors, he looks forward to the impending loss of Sen. Reid so as to further his own political goals."

I'm making up my own story, but it's what I think.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


[ Parent ]
But...But...But
he killed an innocent animal and didn't get a public option. He's really an animal-hating corporatist.  

[ Parent ]
I wonder if the bird asked Schumer to turn off his cellphone?
I wonder if the bird asked Schumer to turn off his cellphone?

That pic just looks so fake it is not even funny. I can just see the aide saying hold this and smile!

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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[ Parent ]
I have to say...
Schumer is the last senator i can imagine going hunting. A NYC liberal doesnt strike me as the hunting type ;). Maybe someone who moved to NYC when they were an adult...but not someone born and raised there ;). But i know, im steriotyping. And he probably doesnt care to hunt but just looked at this hunting 'trip' as a golf or tennis match with a colleague hes trying to win over. Now if I see Obama in camo gear and hunting with Blanche Lincoln in the Ozarks or Olympia Snowe in rural northern Maine...then ill probably die of shock.

[ Parent ]
Like a golf or tennis match, rather
Grr. its late.

[ Parent ]
well since you posted a correction to a typo
I feel obligated to say, you also didnt spell stereotyping correctly  ;)

[ Parent ]
2009 census estimates
The Census Bureau is out with their annual population estimates.

http://www.census.gov/popest/s...

I have to get to bed (I have to be at work in 5 hours) so I didn't get to in depth but I made a few quick calculations about reapportionment and as of right now here are the Congression Districts just above and below the cutoff line.

431. MO-09
432. Cal-53
433. S Car-07
434. MN-08
435. WA-10
------------
436. Ohio-17
437. FLA-27
438. OR-07
439. Tex-36
440. Ill-19

Some other tidbits. New York looks like it will only lose 1 seat. Arizona and Florida's growth has slowed enough that they will likely only gain 1 seat each.

Sorry about not showing the math but I really have to get to bed.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan


Washington gaining two seats?
Jesus, I had no idea that was even on the cards. But I see Oregon is close too, so I guess the north-west is just not seeing its growth slow as much as elsewhere.

[ Parent ]
Is there a list?
Can't find it.

[ Parent ]
There was no list
I just did the math for the states that were near the cutoff point last year. Greenpapers has a good explanation of the formula used.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/...

The rankings I posted were as of 7-1-09, I did not project any population gowth until the census date.

Here is a rundown from the St Paul Pioneer Press.

http://www.twincities.com/ci_1...

Gillaspy's congressional reapportionment forecast projects that Missouri would receive the last U.S. House seat apportioned, with Minnesota "just missing" by about 1,100 people - a difference of less than one month's population change for Minnesota.

The difference among California, Texas, Missouri and Minnesota for the last three seats is about 2,200 people, which is well within the potential estimating error.

"Basically, this is a dead heat," Gillaspy said in a news release. "Remember, these are just estimates by the Census Bureau, and our chances of retaining eight seats are improving every day. What will decide the issue is getting everyone in Minnesota counted in the 2010 census."



"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
1 seat
They currently have 9.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
Thanks
Washington +1
Nevada +1
Utah +1
Arizona +1
Texas +4
Florida +1
Georgia +1
South Carolina +1

Louisiana -1
Iowa -1
Minnesota -1
Illinois -1
Michigan -1
Ohio -2
Pennsylvania -1
New Jersey -1
Massachusetts -1
New York -1

So, based on 2008, blue states gain 3 and lose 10 while red states lose 1 and gain 8. On the face of it bad for Democrats but with growth comes larger urban areas thus positive trends particularly wit Hispanic voters.


[ Parent ]
Yup, if you keep zooming you can find just about everything
I should have linked to the Polidata page with lots of relevant number crunching. It's just out today.  

[ Parent ]
Stupid autocomplete
The subject should just be "yup."

[ Parent ]
Oh man
You shouldn't have shown me that. I've got wrapping to do! :)

[ Parent ]
It gets worse
because the link at the bottom takes you to all of the PDFs. I just liked you to the summary. . .

[ Parent ]
That was what I meant!


[ Parent ]
In one of the most intriguing results...
look at Arnold Schwarzenegger's rating as California's governor in SurveyUSA's poll.  Only 20% approve, a whopping 77% disapprove.

BUT... the stat that I don't think I've ever seen in any polling on any elected politician ever... he has a 15% approval rating from Democrats, a 24% approval rating from Republicans... and a 25% approval rating from Independents.  Think about it... when has a politician been rated higher by Independents than by those in either major political party?

BTW, us college students despise him, with only 12% approving and a whopping 87% disapproving.


I think Jesse Ventura often posted higher #'s among Indies


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
But he was an indie
I can't think of any Democrats and Republicans. Chafee maybe? Lieberman perhaps before 2006?

[ Parent ]
Good call on Chafee
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
It's SurveyUSA
Their toplines are typically quite accurate, but the internals tend to be off.

[ Parent ]
It does kind of make sense though...
Democrats dislike him for caucusing with the Republican majority, Republicans dislike him for being liberal, so he's most popular with independents. It wouldn't be too farfetched.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]

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