The fall of the NY GOP has really been spectacular

Too bad nice, Democratic counties like Monroe and Westchester still vote for local Republicans...

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by: gs @ Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 01:02:40 AM UTC

It Takes Time

 The South started voting Republican for national office in the 70's (except for Carter) but Republicans did not make serious gains there until the 90's. In the Northeast, it has trickled down to Congressional races. The local Republican politicians who win probably are moderate on the most part. Soon, people will see in the Northeast how these Republicans are in the same party as Sarah Palin and will start voting the local Republicans out (Republicans might make modest gains if they become the party of the jobs.)  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....

17, CA-06,  

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by: Alibguy @ Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 02:18:41 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Monroe's not that Democratic

Outside Rochester, it's pretty much a wash. Suburbs to the east and south east lean Democratic, but the opposite is true of areas to the west. It'll take time for the area to flip completely.

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by: Englishlefty @ Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 16:34:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Phew

Dodged a bullet in that Senate race. That would have been a massive waste of money.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

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by: xcave @ Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 01:03:52 AM UTC

Odds are the NY GOP gets behind Lazio and Blakeman

And hopes they can break 40% in both.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

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by: andyroo312 @ Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 01:10:52 AM UTC

Ah, Rudy.

Continuing a long history of not running for stuff (I would argue his presidential bid more or less counts as not running).

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by: SC @ Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 01:20:09 AM UTC

Gillibrand

Defiantly good news and w/ Rudy not running Gillibrand is defiantly keeping her seat. Shes a rising star within our party and hopefully will remain a strong progressive leader bc god knows we need more of those.  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  

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by: GayTeen4Obama @ Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 01:21:44 AM UTC

It doesn't look like she'll have to be too defiant now

Nothing much for her to defy anymore, given the lack of credible opposition.

And I'm glad about that, because she's been a very good Senator so far.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 01:27:25 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

2010

 I became pretty pesimisstic about it recently because the Republicans keep finding good candidates, polls like the Dorgan one come out or strong Democrats do not run. I even worried about New York and I knew that even though people should write off the race for Republicans, it would become really close. It's great to hear some information that is good for the Democrats! Now if we can get Paterson out...

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....

17, CA-06,  

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by: Alibguy @ Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 02:15:40 AM UTC

As for thr candidates

The GOP has found decent candidates in the House but not enough for a takeover, plus we got some good candidates in some districts. Senate, the GOP has been less than good than their counterpart in the House candidate wise although they do have solid candidates in KY and maybe OH and PA but knowing my stste they won't elect another Rick Santorum in Pat Toomey. But yeah Rudy not running for squat is great news. As for Patterson bowinh out, don't hold your breath.

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by: tim thomasen @ Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 02:53:09 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Congrats, James....

The best SSP headline this side of "Panic! At Tedisco"

:)

"You share your young with the wolves of the nation, there's nothing left til you pray for salvation."

--Black Rebel Motorcycle Club

"American X"

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by: Steve Singiser @ Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 03:08:17 AM UTC

Cornyn Holding Nothing?

Was he holding anything at all in the first place?

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by: Don't Tase Me, Bro! @ Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 03:11:57 AM UTC

Well

There was talk about ex Governor George Pataki getting into this race, maybe that's what he meant about holding something.

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by: tim thomasen @ Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 03:38:59 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Nah...

Pataki is all set to press his luck for the 2012 presidential race.

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

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by: nycyoungin @ Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 05:44:38 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thank you for both your responses

but I was being sarcastic. Still, good point though on Pataki.

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by: Don't Tase Me, Bro! @ Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 13:37:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The curse of being elected Mayor of NY continues

The curse continues! The last Mayor of NYC elected to higher office was John T. Hoffman, who won his bid for governor in 1869! Since then no one who has served as Mayor of New York has ever won any other higher office.

Although let me add, NY doesn't choose Gov & Sen candidates until a convention in June.

If I was a Republican political consultant to Rudy or Pataki I would advice my client to lie low and jump into the race at the last minute at the GOP convention. Both Rudy & Pataki could have the nomination for the asking, they would have no trouble raising a ton of money quickly and the shorter the election campaign is in a Dem state like NY the better it is for both candidates.

This way they wont have to show their hand until the Dems do. This means Thompson or some other challenger doesn't have the Rudy threat to keep him out of a primary and Patterson doesnt have a threat of a strong GOP opponent to give Cuomo an excuse to push him out.

I say dont celebrate these candidates not running until the NYS conventions. Until then I would be skeptical of this being a giant head fake. Because if Rudy really wanted to run staying out until June and the Dem situation is set for an election without him running and the parachutting in to "save the day" for the GOP would be the best strategy to winning for him.


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by: izengabe @ Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 13:07:28 PM UTC

Losing is better

Theodore Roosevelt ran for Mayor of New York and lost.  Finished third IIRC.  Later he was elected Governor of NY, Vice President, and President.  That's three higher offices but not the Mayor's job.

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by: David Kowalski @ Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 14:38:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Mario Cuomo too!

Mario Cuomo lost the Mayoral election in 1977 to Ed Kotch than beat him for Governor.

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by: izengabe @ Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 15:54:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Albany

A lot of people from New York City don't want to live in Albany. Koch talked about that, and it was a major reason why he lost when he did run for Governor. I think Giuliani is a died-in-the-wool New Yorker (as in the City) and doesn't want to live in Albany. His current job, which presumably allows him to spend a lot of time in Rio, is a lot more exciting to him, I'd imagine.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 19:55:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm skeptical

June is very late even for Giuliani and Pataki to start from scratch.

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by: conspiracy @ Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 20:35:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Pataki started his campaign that late in 1994

Pataki started his campaign against Cuomo about that late in 1994. Things did really begin until the GOP State convention when Al D'Amato hand picked Pataki.

Rudy & Pataki can parachute in any time they want to. Having their names out of the spotlight prevents Dems from coming together around a single candidate in either race & gives both time to see what the political enviornment looks like 5 months from now before commiting.

While I don't think either will run there is still lots of time for them to change their minds.

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by: izengabe @ Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 20:51:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Nothing is impossible

But I think the days of late starts being successful are long gone.

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by: conspiracy @ Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 20:56:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Races in New York are so expensive

that unless you're Bloomberg, the odds are evened against almost anyone. Generally, this is good for Democrats. But as between Paterson and Some Dude (R), I'd be quite worried.  

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by: andgarden @ Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 22:12:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I can't believe no-one will run against Paterson

in a primary. If Andrew Cuomo has cold feet, Some Dude (D) would beat Paterson in a landslide.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 22:30:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Indeed

DavidNYC himself would made a perfectly acceptable candidate, assuming he meets the age requirement.  

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by: andgarden @ Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 22:36:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Even so, I suspect Paterson would beat Lazio

Even if Lazio wins on his Long Island home territory (which is possible in a Paterson race), I imagine Paterson can beat him in the counties a New York Republican absolutely needs to win - Westchester County, Monroe County, Onondaga County, Schenectady County, and Renesselear County. If Lazio can't score victory in all five, it should be Paterson's to lose.

Paterson's biggest problem may actually not so much be Independents but GOTV problems with labor and the WFP, both of which haven't exactly embraced the Governor's policies as of late.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

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by: andyroo312 @ Wed Dec 23, 2009 at 02:06:40 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Monroe County

isn't that hard for a Republican to win, I believe Bush almost won it in 2004 despite losing NY by almost 20 points.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

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by: sapelcovits @ Wed Dec 23, 2009 at 17:22:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

GOTV - Exactly

I think so many people hate Paterson because of the way he's run the state that they will be unlikely to vote for him. I know that I'll be disgusted if I'm faced with a choice between him and a Republican, and I'm not sure what I'd do in that situation.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Thu Dec 24, 2009 at 11:42:25 AM UTC

[ Parent ]