Quinnipiac (12/8-14, registered voters, 9/22-28 in parentheses):
Arlen Specter (D-inc): 44 (42)
Pat Toomey (R): 44 (43)
Don't know: 11 (13)
Joe Sestak (D): 35 (35)
Pat Toomey (R): 40 (38)
Don't know: 22 (25)
(MoE: ±2.6%)
Arlen Specter (D-inc): 53 (44)
Joe Sestak (D): 30 (25)
Don't know: 15 (28)
(MoE: ±3.9%)
Things have actually been pretty stable between Arlen Specter and Pat Toomey for the last few months; the previous two Q-polls gave a 1-pt. edge to Specter and then a 1-pt. edge to Toomey, and this month they're flat-out tied. Specter's problem, more than anything, is that everyone knows him, and they're pretty even split on him (47/45 job approvals, with a re-elect of only 38%). Toomey puts up surprisingly high favorables (35/10), suggesting there's lots of room for his negatives to go up once Specter starts filling in some of those blanks concerning Toomey's Club for Growth nuttiness.
Joe Sestak still remains little-known, at 20/9, so the usual caveats about "room for growth" apply, but his head-to-head numbers seem to be eroding a little. He loses some ground against Toomey, and while he picked up some support in the Dem primary, Specter picked up even more support, pushing past 50%. A lot of that may have to do with Specter proving himself to a slice of the state's liberals with his advocacy for the public option -- which you've gotta wonder if he'd even be doing if he weren't preoccupied with his left flank thanks to Sestak's presence.
Quinnipiac (12/8-14, registered voters, 9/21-28 in parentheses):
Dan Onorato (D): 30 (28)
Tom Corbett (R): 45 (47)
Don't know: 22 (24)
Jack Wagner (D): 33 (29)
Tom Corbett (R): 43 (44)
Don't know: 23 (25)
Joe Hoeffel (D): 30 (NA)
Tom Corbett (R): 46 (NA)
Don't know: 23 (NA)
(MoE: ±2.6%)
Dan Onorato (D): 14 (14)
Joe Hoeffel (D): 8 (12)
Jack Wagner (D): 7 (11)
Chris Doherty (D): 6 (8)
Tom Knox (D): 5 (5)
Don't know: 59 (46)
(MoE: ±3.9%)
Tom Corbett (R): 38 (42)
Jim Gerlach (R): 12 (13)
Don't know: 47 (43)
(MoE: ±4%)
Things look more dire in the Governor's race, although it looks like a positive trend is underway as the Democratic candidates become (slightly) better known, and the numbers aren't as bad as Rasmussen's data from earlier this week (which found, for instance, a 13-point spread on Corbett/Wagner).
The problem, as I've diagnosed at other times, is twofold: no one knows who any of the Democrats are (Auditor Jack Wagner has favorables of 22/5 and Allegheny Co. Exec Dan Onorato is at 18/9 -- and the "don't knows" in the Democratic primary are huge, and actually getting bigger) -- but that part's easily fixable, as the campaign season escalates. The other problem, though, is that AG Tom Corbett is constantly in the news with the Bonusgate investigation (which seems to climaxing conveniently timed with his gubernatorial campaign, not that I'd ever accuse anyone of orchestrating something like that...). Corbett manages to be the one wearing the white hat here (good for a 43/6 favorable), since he's facing off against key figures in the state legislature, by far the least popular entity in the state (the lege gets a 25/64 approval, compared with Gov. Ed Rendell, who's rebounding to a mediocre 43/49). There's one other intangible the Dems have to overcome, too (although trends are meant to be broken, yadda yadda): the Governor's chair changes between the parties like clockwork every eight years, with the same precision it does in Virginia.
The Pennsylvania governor's seat is an important one for redistricting, but with it looking like there's little chance of Dems flipping the GOP-held (30 R, 20 D) state Senate (after the Dems lost both special elections this year that offered potential pickups), it looks like we might be headed for a compromise map regardless of the gubernatorial race's outcome. In fact, the Dems should emphasize shoring up their hold on the state House, where their edge is kind of shaky (104 D, 98 R). Simultaneous 2010 loss of the governor's seat and the House would be disastrous; it would actually give the trifecta to the Republicans again, and they might actually be more successful with a GOP-controlled gerrymander this time than their 2000 dummymander that eventually wound up exploding in their faces.
RaceTracker: PA-Sen | PA-Gov |
