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At Least Seven Red-Seat Dems Say They Will Run Again

by: DavidNYC

Tue Dec 15, 2009 at 6:32 PM EST


Not so fast, said the DCCC to the doomsayers:

At least 2 members who have been targets of an orchestrated GOP effort to goad them into retiring have told DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen they will run again over the past day. Spokespeople for Reps. Ike Skelton (D-MO) and Tim Holden (D-PA) say the incumbents will seek another term. ...

Meanwhile, other potentially vulnerable incumbents have also assured the DCCC they are staying put. Reps. Ben Chandler (D-KY), Jim Matheson (D-UT) and Chet Edwards (D-TX) all told Dem leaders they would seek additional terms. A spokesperson for Rep. Lincoln Davis (D-TN) later said he will run for re-election as well.

Reid Wilson, who has done yeoman work tracking down retirement rumors, also reports that his sources say they expect Rick Boucher (VA-09) to run again. The GOP's gung-ho attempts to goad various red-seat Dems into retirement may be having the opposite effect, if it's pushing Dems to circle the wagons (and getting some competitive juices flowing again). In any event, this is some good pushback by Chris Van Hollen and the D-Trip.

Of course, there are still plenty of other names to be concerned about - our open seat watch still has several Democratic names on it, and several more have been the subject of recent rumors. I'm hoping, though, that some wobbly members of our caucus will take some cues from an old warhorse like Skelton and say to themselves, "If he can do it once more, then so can I."

UPDATE: Maybe my theory is right:

Rep. Collin Peterson (D-Minn.) even publicly announced he's definitely running again, and bashed Republicans for spreading rumors that he was thinking of stepping down.

"I don't know why anyone would give credibility to these Republican rumors. I'm running for re-election and anyone who knows me knows that what I'm doing now is what I've always done," Peterson said in a statement. "My paperwork is on file and in February I'll make an official announcement."

UPDATE No. 2: I've changed the title, in light of the extra information in the Politico piece, which notes that Earl Pomeroy has also told the DCCC he's running again. (So has Paul Kanjorski, but Obama won his district handily.) Marion Berry is also expected to run again, according to the piece. So that's seven red-seat yeses and two probablies (Boucher and Berry). Not bad for a day's work.
DavidNYC :: At Least Seven Red-Seat Dems Say They Will Run Again
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At Least Seven Red-Seat Dems Say They Will Run Again | 62 comments
You can add Collin Peterson to that list
http://politicsinminnesota.com...

Peterson also released a statement today ridiculing rumors of his retirement:
"I don't know why anyone would give credibility to these Republican rumors," he said in the statement. "I'm running for re-election and anyone who knows me knows that what I'm doing right now is what I've always done.


"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
Your to quick for me Dave


"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
FInally
some good news. Almost forgot how that feels like  
I know
I feel you.
[ Parent ]
Prayer works!
Ike Skelton's running again! Hooray! Now let's see if God hates Joe Lieberman as much as I do...

And btw, good call on the "competitive juices" theory. I hadn't even thought of it before you mentioned it previously, but it makes perfect sense. These are all politicians--specifically Congressman, who have a race every 2 years--and in theory, they've got to have some affection for the political game.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

It was actually John Tanner
Who brought this up - he said GOP attempts to goad him into retirement were the one thing which really made him reconsider, since they got the blood flowing again. It didn't quite go far enough there, but it seems to have at least gottne Collin Peterson's dander up.
[ Parent ]
I like Tanner
But if he wants to retire I'd say 2010 is better than 2012.  We already have a very good candidate running to replace him and at least this way it gives a new dem the possible advantage of incumbency going into 2012 redistricting in Tennessee.
[ Parent ]
Chairmanships make a difference too
Democrats only just took power in 2006, and this is the first time they've had a friendly President where that influence can make a difference.  For guys like Skelton, this is the kind of opportunity they've waited years for - to become chair of their pet committee and have a President who is willing to listen to them on their main issues.  It makes sense that Skelton (Armed Services) and Peterson (Agriculture) would want to return, as leaving now would be walking away from a golden opportunity.
[ Parent ]
Good point. Perhaps his chairmanship will keep Spratt (budget) in the race.

[ Parent ]
Didnt keep Gordon from retirement...
and his pet issue (Science) might see one of the biggest changes coming from Bush to Obama...

33, living in Germany  
[ Parent ]
Gordon was probably going down anyway

[ Parent ]
Gordon saw the writing on the wall
Scientific policy is likely going to move in a very different direction that he would have wanted, so he saw it as a moot point if he gave up his chairmanship.  From what I gathered he wasn't getting a lot at the table.  Plus, Science is a lower-tier committee.  Ag and Armed Services have way bigger budgets and impact far more people (politically, at least).
[ Parent ]
What direction did he want?
n/t

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
TX-17
If the GOP can't knock off Edwards in 2010 he's gonna be around for awhile!  He deserves a shirt which says "I keep surviving the DeLayMander of '03!"
Well
TX-17 is overwhelmingly republican even in good democratic years.  I don't think Edwards's chances in 2012 are any worse than they were in 2004 or 2006.  And it seems like he had better challlengers those years than he will in 2010.  He'll survive like he always does.
[ Parent ]
If Dems can get a seat at the Texas redistricting table
Then Edwards will probably be shored up significantly. He'll probably trade toxic Fort Worth exurbs to neighboring John Carter and get Bell County in return; heck, Travis County has some extra room after packing in the 25th, so the 17th might even loop down there.
[ Parent ]
What's his secret?
Does he provide particularly superb constituent service?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
He must shit diamonds
Because for the life of me I never understood how someone who isn't even very conservative and not a Blue Dog manages to keep winning a crazy right-wing district like he has.
[ Parent ]
Sometimes
People just like you.
[ Parent ]
I guess
He seems like a very likable person and carefully crafts his image.  I seem to recall his family even took in a family who went homeless after Katrina which earned him good press.  But seriously, his record is quite liberal.  I never understood how republicans were not able to cast him as such.
[ Parent ]
Trying to think of an example on the other side
Maybe Mike Castle. On a global scale Berlusconi certainly.
[ Parent ]
Even Castle is not close
Castle is liberal on most issues in a left-leaning district (state).  Chet Edwards is mostly liberal in a batshit crazy conservative district.  The man is a magician.
[ Parent ]
Castle isn't a liberal
He votes the Republican party line on every important issue. And he's a corporate tool.
[ Parent ]
He's still the least conservative republican
Well, maybe Cao has him beat but he used to be.  Just trying to say he's a hell of a lot closer to his constituency ideologically than Edwards is.  And almost all Delaware politicians (Dems included) are corporate tools.  Hell, Tom Carper is waging a one man war to prevent Americans from getting cheaper imported drugs.
[ Parent ]
Berlusconi, Ha!
We're not even having this argument, but Berlusconi? No. A thousand times no. He owns almost all of Italy's media...if Chet Edwards owned what Rupert Murdoch does, plus all the major broadcast networks, then the comparison might work. Anyway, I agree with the principle, but not that example.

As for the Republican side...the basic fact is that there are more than a few Dems in seats that are roughly R+10-20-ish, yet none but a handful of Repubs, are able to squeak past a D+5 barrier. And that's usually in fairly extraordinary circumstances (craptastic Dem incumbents, good Repub incumbents, very centrist viewpoints, being hugely likable, etc.) It wasn't always this way, of course, but since 2006, election cycles just haven't been kind to Republican incumbents.

One other thing about Edwards: people in Texas aren't stupid or unaware of what Delay did. They know about the Delaymander. They know Edwards was a good Congressman before the crazy map and that he'll probably be a good one after. So if he's just one Congressman of Texas' 30-something of 'em, why the heck not, right?

However, knowing as many Texans as I do, I would almost certainly agree the most likely reason is that he's still a Congressman is that he graduated from Texas A&M. Well played, Xochi. And take note, DCCC.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Berlusconi
The media thing is huge but lots of Italians view him as a lovable rougue too. That is now wearing thin.
[ Parent ]
And Italy always elects right-wingers
The left has been in power what, a whopping 5 years or so in Italy since WWII?
[ Parent ]
Yep
In large part, during the early days, anyway, thanks to quiet but extensive CIA shenanigans against what has always been a fairly moderate communist and socialist left.  Even the PCI could easily have won in a fair fight in the 40s-50s...maybe even up until the Red Brigades tarnished the Left.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
Here's one reason, although not THE reason...
Chet Edwards graduated from Texas A&M University which is in his district.  Despite being one of the most (if not THE most) conservative public universities in the nation, Aggies are EXTREMELY loyal to one another, even overlooking party affiliation to a point almost unheard of outside of Texas.  
[ Parent ]
Fantastic news
Conspicuous by their absence though - Spratt, Snyder, Berry, Mollohan. Maybe Rahall and Boswell.
We'll see
I don't expect the D-Trip to be miracle-workers. But hopefully we'll hear some more announcements soon.
[ Parent ]
I'm drawing a blank
D-Trip stands for what?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
DCCC
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee
[ Parent ]
D (triple) C
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC)
[ Parent ]
Ditto Boucher


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Maybe not
"Reid Wilson, who has done yeoman work tracking down retirement rumors, also reports that his sources say they expect Rick Boucher (VA-09) to run again."  
[ Parent ]
Ah, missed that.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Boucher
Is it possible to make his district even marginally more democratic in 2012?  It just looks like territory that is unworkable and a sure loss once he's gone.
[ Parent ]
Nope
The only Dem areas around the 9th are Roanoke (part of the 6th, and Goodlatte's home) and Danville (part of the 5th, Perriello will need it if he wins in 2010).
[ Parent ]
My guess is that it won't matter
Neither Perriello nor Boucher will be back in 2011, unless teabagger independents get around 10% of the vote, and even then it will be tough.
[ Parent ]
Who is challenging Boucher?
You keep saying he's going to lose but as far as I know Kilgore and any other top-tier challenger is not in the race.
[ Parent ]
Even a second string challenger will beat Boucher
And I'm pretty sure that one will emerge.
[ Parent ]
Support this with some facts
These people have been pulling the lever for this guy for almost 30 years.  His re-elections have not been close.  He survived 1994.  McCain won this district by 19 in 2008.  Compare that to TX-17, MS-04, OK-02, etc.

You are totally speculating.  If I see some polling, I'll believe it, but you are giving me nothing.  

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Maybe
he stayed at a Holiday Inn Express :)
[ Parent ]
To clarify
He stayed at a Holiday Inn NOT located in any Blue Dog district.
[ Parent ]
The Lincoln Davis news is a sigh of relief
I thought for sure he was out on the heels of Tanner & Gordon.

Male, 23, DC-At Large
Woo-Hoo!
Those are some really big names.

Skelton - bottom line is, if he drops out Missouri-4 is gone.  With Skelton still hanging in, I think this is a likely democratic victory, although it might be closer than normal
Peterson - Only chance for the Repubs was in an open seat, Peterson will win this one pretty easily.  Although Minnesota-7 went for McCain barely, but looking at the map it appears that district turned quite a bit blue in 2008, especially the counties on the North Dakota border.
Holden - Likewise, Obama really did well in Holden's district, nearly carrying it.  An open seat was the Repubs only chance here.  I wasn't really all that concerned with Pennsylvania-17 anyway, Obama's still pretty popular in the northeast.
Chandler - This would be a very tough hold, but I'm not as bearish about Kentucky as I am with some other southern states.  A good candidate could've held it, but with Chandler staying in I don't think we've got much of a problem here.  Maybe closer than normal, but that's it.
Matheson - This guy seems pretty popular in his district and is well known within the state because of his name.  An open seat and Utah-2 would've been gone for sure, good thing Matheson is staying in.  I have a feeling he wants to run for governor or senator but because of how bad the cycle would be for Dems, he didn't think he'd be able to overcome Utah's hugely R lean.
Edwards - Honestly, I don't know how this guy keeps surviving in Texas-17, which is in the heart of bright red republican rural Texas.  It boggles my mind.  This is the very definition of an unwinnable district for Dems across the country and he keeps winning.  I'm inclined to believe that he's going to win again just because he's been in situations at least this bad before.  But it'll be a battle for sure.
Davis - This is the one district that I think we're going to lose even with the incumbent running.  I've held that view since April.  Davis sticking around helps, but Tennessee-4 has absolutely fallen off a cliff the last 8 years.  That's the difference between Davis and Edwards, Edwards has already had to deal with a ridiculously conservative district for years on end.  Davis, not so much.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

Difference being...
Davis's stridently conservative voting record on most key issues may keep him somewhat insulated, short of there being a very targeted anti-Democratic downballot backlash (which is entirely possible).

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
What were Davis's votes?
On health care, the stimulus, SCHIP, Lily Ledbetter, ect.?  I was under the impression that he voted for most all of these except for maybe health care.  

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13
[ Parent ]
He's voted against...
mortgage cramdown, the new tobacco regulations, the Matthew Shepard Act, ACES, health care reform, and the new financial regulations.

He's the Tennessee Rep the Democrats could most easily afford to lose, which is why it's a shame he's the only one of the three running for re-election.

[ Parent ]
At least
We've got Herron running to succeed Tanner in TN-08.  For an R+6 open seat I'm feeling pretty optimistic about that one, though it remains to be seen who the Repub opposing him is going to be.  

Strangely, if I had to call it today, I think we hold the Tennessee-8 open seat and lose an incumbent in Tennessee-4.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

[ Parent ]
I had hoped he would run for Governor
He would have been a very good candidate for Governor and we could afford to lose him in the House.  Too bad he's the only one sticking around and none of the Tennessee democratic reps will try to hold the Governorship for us.
[ Parent ]
Caution about votes for Obama
The 2008 election prompted lots of people who don't normally vote or vote Democratic to go out to the polls or vote early or by absentee ballot for Obama, because they believed the country was going to Hell and the economy would go straight off the cliff if McCain were elected. I would greatly caution everyone: (1) To expect many of these voters not to show up at the polls, even if they aren't disaffected, because only a minority of voters show up for mid-term elections; (2) To expect that many people who voted for Obama in a crisis may vote for Congressional Republicans.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
The crisis is way overblown
As the reason he won. It padded the margin but he was winning anyway. And those new voters were already planning to vote. I agree lots of them won't next year. But not necesarily for the reasons several bloggers believe.
[ Parent ]
Disagree
The base of the democratic party is watching the President's actions closely.  They are well aware of the backroom BS he's pulling in caving to conservative Dems/Lieberman in HCR.  If the bill passes in the form it's rumored to I can see many Dems (myself included) who are going to be VERY discouraged that this one in a lifetime opportunity was blown.  
[ Parent ]
Yeah all his fault
What rubbish. I wasn't even talking about health care but lower turnout in any midterm in certain demographic groups.
[ Parent ]
No
Just partially his fault.  And turnout is going to be hurt due to a garbage HCR bill with many demographics.  Not rubbish, just facts.
[ Parent ]
Just opinions
But this is not the place to discuss it.
[ Parent ]
Then they suck
honestly if Dems don't turn out because what passed wasn't good enough for them, then they can't be considered the base of the party. That's why we don't get anything done because we give up way too quickly, way too easily.

Most people I know aren't following the healthcare debate and they're not turning out next year either, cause they're over politics. It has nothing to do wtih healthcare or whatever, it's just the way it is.

[ Parent ]
Agreed
This is what I meant. Politics isn't cool to people like it was in 2008. It is to Republicans who are out of power and pissed.
[ Parent ]
I think more will stay away
if the economy still sucks and unemployment, bankruptcies, and foreclosures aren't down palpably, at the very least. A decent health care bill with already palpable positive features would (have) help(ed), too. But you'll note that I simply stated that a lot of people don't vote in midterm elections, anyway, period.

As for "crisis," I think the two of us mean different things by it. The economy was already miserable before it got truly near-apocalyptic. And "padding the margin" is already a reason to be careful about putting too much importance on the degree of shift toward the Democrats in 2008.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
A quick TX-17 update
Via Facebook status, Chet Edwards has sent out the memo, he HAS filed for re-election. So, lock.

http://www.facebook.com/pages/...

Someday Ralph Hall (R TX-4) and Sam Johnson (R TX-3) will retire . . .
As will Solomon Ortiz, we could do so much better than him.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

At Least Seven Red-Seat Dems Say They Will Run Again | 62 comments

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