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SD-AL: Herseth Sandlin Beats Nelson, But Potentially Vulnerable

by: Crisitunity

Tue Dec 15, 2009 at 12:56 PM EST

Public Policy Polling (pdf) (12/10-13, registered voters):

Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc): 46
Chris Nelson (R): 39
Undecided: 15
Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc): 52
Blake Curd (R): 31
Undecided: 17
(MoE: ±3.7%)

PPP gave us our choice last week of which Dem-held sleeper race to pick, and South Dakota's at-large seat was a good one to pick, as it's emblematic of where House Dems are right now. Herseth Sandlin is personally popular (with 49/38 approvals) and, as a leader among the Blue Dogs, a good fit for her Republican-leaning district and not someone who'd leap to mind as among the most vulnerable. Still, as with many red-district House members, she's suffering from association with the larger party (Barack Obama's approval is 41/52, and approval of the House's HCR bill is 25/59), and facing a stronger recruit than usual, in the form of outgoing Republican Secretary of State Chris Nelson.

The result is Herseth Sandlin up by a tolerable margin against Nelson, 46-39, although she's below the 50% safety zone and Nelson is strangely unknown for a statewide official (29/12 favorables, with 59% unknown), giving him a lot of room for growth. She wins with little effort, though, against Sioux Falls-area state Rep. Blake Curd, who has only 6/13 favorables. I'm not sure what angle Curd has for getting out of the primary, though (other than self-financing, perhaps; Curd is a surgeon by day). In the end, given her personal popularity, Herseth Sandlin still has to be favored here, but this poll certainly indicates that further erosion in standing among national Dems could further harm her chances too.

RaceTracker Wiki: SD-AL

Crisitunity :: SD-AL: Herseth Sandlin Beats Nelson, But Potentially Vulnerable

Tags: SD-AL, Polls, PPP, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, Blake Curd, Chris Nelson, (All Tags)

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SD-AL: Herseth Sandlin Beats Nelson, But Potentially Vulnerable | 19 comments

She's a red state dem

in big gain elections, not counting seats won by scandals, a lot of gains come from states that lean towards the party, are changing towards the party, or are leaving the party but have one last bit of nostalgia. to explain what i mean, look at the wins in 2006 and 2008.

most of the seats came from blue states like the house seats from new york, california, wisconsin, minnesota, iowa, the senate seats in rhode island, oregon, minnesota, new mexico, and others.

swing states that lean towards one party also produce a lot of seats. pennsylvannias numerous house and senate seat. colorado, ohio, missouri, virginia, all states that are leaning towards the dems. they provided a lot of our gains.

the rest come from states that are leaving the party but vote for us, narrowly, one last time. dems won 4 senate seats in the south in 1986 with bob graham's 55% being the highest margin. north carolina, alabama and georgia would turn away from us, but they still gave us their votes. this is similar to the deep south voting for Carter in 1976 by narrow margins.

herseth in is a read that that might ignore their preference for herseth just to get a member of the party they like ala lincoln chaffee's 2006 defeat.

being normal is for the mediocre.

by: doug_tuttle @ Tue Dec 15, 2009 at 12:16:29 PM CST

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Good general analysis

I disagree on the margins, though. I think Missouri has been trending away from and not toward the Democrats.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
-- Will Rogers

by: Pan @ Tue Dec 15, 2009 at 17:20:49 PM CST

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Nelson

Congressman are too serious these days; it'd be good to get an outgoing guy like Chris Nelson in there.

by: PropJoe @ Tue Dec 15, 2009 at 12:30:46 PM CST

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the senate does have a comedian

though franken's going to be keeping that part sequestered for a while.

being normal is for the mediocre.

by: doug_tuttle @ Tue Dec 15, 2009 at 12:37:15 PM CST

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Minnesota's other senator, Amy Klobuchar

is also very funny for an amateur comedian.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
-- Will Rogers

by: Pan @ Tue Dec 15, 2009 at 17:19:48 PM CST

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in the House check out Rep. Brad Sherman (D-CA-27)

Brad is a very funny guy, another amateur comedian. I think he won one of the Funniest Pol in DC contests one year. He says he lives in the best named community in America, Sherman Oaks, CA. He has several good routines dating back to his days on the CA Board of Equalization (tax adjudication board).

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

by: Zack from the SFV @ Tue Dec 15, 2009 at 23:29:27 PM CST

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Barney Frank is still my favorite

He always has a great zinger, often on the Financial Services Committee it's at the expense of Ranking republican Bachus.

by: ChadInFL @ Wed Dec 16, 2009 at 18:39:51 PM CST

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Funny

Well, I do look to House Republicans to provide a lot of my political humor these days.

Thing is, Herseth-Sandlin's sharp as a tack, has a deserved moderate reputation and is a darn good retail politician. In a small state like SD, all that matters.

If she goes down, it'll only be in a 1994-like wave.

29, D, CA-27, 2nd class citizen

by: arealmlc @ Tue Dec 15, 2009 at 13:04:25 PM CST

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SD registered voters

Not sure if PPP is using a registered voter or likely voter model but... as of 2008

Republicans 45.53 percent
Dems 38.53
other 15.67

Then there are some minor party votes so the indie looks about right for this poll but the repubs are oversampled... that might be accurate for a likely voter screen though.

by: admnok @ Tue Dec 15, 2009 at 14:00:20 PM CST

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SD registered voters

http://www.sdsos.gov/elections...

Thought a link might be nice too...

by: admnok @ Tue Dec 15, 2009 at 14:00:49 PM CST

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Pretty sure PPP uses LV.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

by: spiderdem @ Tue Dec 15, 2009 at 14:57:29 PM CST

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Yeah I'm pretty sure you are right

one of the criticism in their model is that they are expecting a bit too favorable of a turnout for Republicans (or at least compared with everyone else other than Rasmussen).

by: sulthernao @ Tue Dec 15, 2009 at 17:27:46 PM CST

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Finally a pol that polls something interesting

Unlike other polls where the incumbent D is in deep crap not for politics but for other reason (Dodd, Reid, somewhat Lincoln) we get a poll of a medium-red district with a non-wounded incumbent, and see sensible numbers.

A poll of Republican Lee Terry in a similar light/medium-red district would offer a good look at the other side of the coin.

by: tommypaine @ Tue Dec 15, 2009 at 18:41:24 PM CST

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Small study

The 50% rule. Using Senate races as a guide during 2008 and incumbents who were re-elected.

Mary Landrieu
Frank Lautenberg
Saxby Chambliss
Pat Roberts
Mitch McConnell
Roger Wicker
John Cornyn
Susan Collins

All multiple times under 50% in polls. I'm not sure it is that strong a guide. At least not as much as is assumed.

by: conspiracy @ Tue Dec 15, 2009 at 19:38:09 PM CST

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Agreed on 50%

I'd say 45% is a much more telling number. Because if you're at 50%, or even 48%, as the incumbent you're probably winning the poll by mid single-digits, and if polls are accurate, will probably win election by about that margin unless all the indies/undecideds break against you. It's rare for that to happen to an established politician. But at 45%, then you might be tied or losing in the polls, and it's very possible that the indies and undecideds could prove to be your demise.

The difference between 50% and 45% is the difference between, say, Arlen Specter and Harry Reid. One is vulnerable but still expected to win (assuming he makes it through the primary against Sestak, which is up in the air), but the other is very vulnerable to the point where he's in big trouble.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

by: StephenCLE @ Tue Dec 15, 2009 at 20:02:12 PM CST

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Having said that

Neither Reid or Dodd are anywhere near Santorum territory. Mainly because Republicans don't have a Bob Casey in either Nevada or Connecticut.

by: conspiracy @ Tue Dec 15, 2009 at 20:04:03 PM CST

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