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FL-02: Lawson May Drop Primary Challenge

by: Crisitunity

Mon Dec 07, 2009 at 4:50 PM EST


Mega-Blue Dog Allen Boyd may have a much easier route to re-election:

Florida state Sen. Al Lawson has confirmed to the St. Petersburg Times that he is considering switching from challenging Rep. Allen Boyd (D-Fla.) to the state chief financial officer race.

Democrats have struggled to find someone to run for outgoing CFO Alex Sink's (D) post while she runs for governor. And Lawson has found it difficult to raise the money needed to run a primary against an incumbent congressman.

This comes as a bit of a surprise, as Lawson had posted an internal poll a few weeks ago giving him a 35-31 lead over Boyd, suggesting he was engaged with the race and had incentive to stay in it. (The Democratic electorate in the 2nd is substantially African-American, giving Lawson an advantage there.) As The Hill notes, though, Lawson is at a terrible financial disadvantage ($78,000, versus Boyd's $1.7 million), and that gives Lawson -- who's termed out of the state Senate and looking for somewhere to move up -- an incentive to switch over to a race where he'd be running with establishment backing instead of against it.

So: bad news for those hoping to replace a Blue Dog with a (somewhat) Better Dem... although if Lawson won the primary, he might have had a rough time of it in the general in this R+6 9 district. On the other hand, good news for Dems trying to make a full court press for all the statewide offices in Florida, with current CFO Alex Sink at the top of the ticket.

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Crisitunity :: FL-02: Lawson May Drop Primary Challenge
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FL-02: Lawson May Drop Primary Challenge | 49 comments
FL-2 is an R+6
Probably wouldn't elected Lawson anyway though.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


Ooops, I was
looking at my computer upside down.
[ Parent ]
Crap.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
Why "crap"?
We don't need as much padding in the House at the moment, but I'd love to see us regain a strong foothold in Florida state politics.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
I am as opposed to Boyd as anyone
But it really looked like Lawson's challenge was going nowhere. If he gives us a fighting chance at holding the CFO job, I'd prefer that to a hopeless quest against Boyd.
[ Parent ]
The internal poll.
Yeah, it was an internal poll with an inordinate number of undecideds, but I'm not sure how you can say Lawson was going nowhere in light of that poll.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Honestly
Do you seriously think Lawson could win that seat if he beat Boyd in the Primary?

He wouldn't be able to mimic the coalition Boyd has successfully crafted, and would you really want to put him up in an open seat with this type of environment?

[ Parent ]
No he wouldn't
Lawson would lose to a 2nd-tier republican and probably a 3rd-tier one.  Boyd is the best we're getting in FL-02.  We're better served without this primary.
[ Parent ]
Boyd is one of those Blue Dogs
that is a cancer.  Look at his behavior during the Social Security fight in 2005 and the stimulus fight in 2009.  He trashes Democrats.  To me the last part is the determining factor in deciding whether having a Blue Dog even in a GOP district is worth it.

Along with Parker Griffith, Mike Ross, and Dan Boren, it would be better to have a Republican than Allen Boyd.  I don't say that about every Southern Blue Dog, but I do say that about cancers and obstructionists.  

[ Parent ]
No he isn't
Social security privatization never had even a remote chnce of passing and the stimulus was held up in the Senate not the House.  Most people have never even heard of Boyd.  He's not like some of our Senators who makes the party look bad publicly.  He's a Congressman most people have not and will never hear about.  His vote for Speaker each Congress is all I really care about.
[ Parent ]
I see you're definitely not calling people names
by calling certain people "cancers".

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
I'm not calling any user on SSP names
Politicians, however, are perfectly fair game.
[ Parent ]
using the word "cancer" is totally insensitive
and out of line.  Just stop it.  

There are plenty of other ways to call someone a useless buttwipe.  Even saying "cancerous influence" is more appropriate.

[ Parent ]
And to be quite frank
calling Boyd a cancer is an insult to cancer.  
[ Parent ]
These arguments are convincing me
of the importance of diversity in the Democratic caucus.

The only way we can take advantage of Rs moving towards wingnut status -

is to encourage a diversity of opinions within the Democratic caucus. Otherwise, Rs will retreat to their 20%, we'll be stuck with our 30%, and swing voters will go back and forth. Nobody ends up with a sustainable majority - changes will be made after one election - and reversed after the next.

And we'd be puttering away the sustainable majority that we should have with coming demographic trends.

Speaking of demographics, there's Boyd and Social Security. Sure he seems amenable to privatization and that's taboo (and IMO morally wrong). But there is a older demographic surge coming - and we'll need some different ways of thinking to solve that issue, a willingness to go beyond the "third rail".

Daniel Patrick Moynihan understood this. Although he even worked for Tricky Dick, nobody ever called him a "blue dog" (or "boll weevil," if anyone remembers that term).

My instinct is that we can address social security with substantial increases in immigration - say by opening up our doors to anyone on a student visa who graduates from one of colleges, especially in technical fields - as well as anyone who is willing to start a business and shows the funds to do so, etc. I give President Clinton credit for trying to pull us in that direction.

[ Parent ]
"He wouldn't be able to mimic the coalition Boyd has successfully crafted"
You're basing that on what?  

Lawson represents most of the swing counties in the 2nd district (see map here).  And in his only contested election, Lawson won all but one county in his state senate district; all but one of which are in the 2nd Congressional district.  The only areas within the 2nd Lawson doesn't represent are Walton, Okaloosa, and most of Bay Counties, all of which Boyd loses regularly, and some counties to the east.

Democrats can get 45% in the district just by winning Leon, Gadsden, and Jefferson Counties (all of which Lawson represents).  Add to that Lawson's ability to win Gulf, Jackson, Calhoun, Franklin, and Wakulla.  And Bill McBride won the 2nd district by winning these counties.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
I don't care if Lawson wins or loses
I just want Boyd, Boren, Griffith, Ross, and other obstructionists and cancers on "our side" gone.
[ Parent ]
Look:
EnglishLefty and TheUnknown285 both agree with you that they'd rather have Lawson than Boyd, but instead of spending multiple comments repeatedly calling Boyd a "cancer" (and then insulting him some more gratuitously), they're actually giving reasons for preferring Lawson, and then doing what this site does best--debating whether he has a chance of actually winning the seat in a general election.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Lawson's state Senate seat is something like 55% democratic at the Presidential level
I'll try to find a link to the numbers but I recall reading that awhile back.  It's a good deal less conservative than Boyd's house seat.  Believe me I'd love to replace Boyd with Lawson, I just don't see it happening.  Boyd is about the best we can hope for in FL-02.
[ Parent ]
But my point still stands.
Lawson has the ability to win the district.  He just needs to win his state senate district.  Three counties will go Republican no matter if it's Boyd or Lawson.  Boyd will have a better chance in the eastern counties (Suwannee, Dixie, Taylor, and another) but McBride lost big in those counties but won the district big (according to the guys who write National Journal's Alamanac of American Politics) essentially by winning Lawson's senate district.  In fact, McBride won despite NOT winning one county in Lawson's district (Gulf), a county Lawson had won four years before.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Well
I believe the better question would be "how can he mimic Boyd's coalition"? Using numbers from 8 years ago says nothing. Also, a State Senate seat and a Congressional seat are two entirely different situations. McBride won the seat in what, 2002? Again, you're comparing entirely different seats. Now, Federal numbers might work, but you should know from living in Georgia how voters in the South can easily vote one way in local/state elections and the opposite in Federal races.
[ Parent ]
Also
While Lawson may be mounting a challenge from Boyd's left it's no guarantee he would be much more progressive.  There is a very good chance Lawson would run towards the middle after getting elected in order to help his re-election chances.

I'll have to go back and check but I believe Boyd was quite a bit further left when he was first elected to FL-02.  In 2002 republicans gave him a marginally more conservative district and he adapted.

[ Parent ]
He'd have a tougher time
But I do think Boyd is a net negative for the Democratic Party, and not just because of his votes.

Allen Boyd-Democrats are not Democrats for anybody else. He legitimises those who belonged to the old Democratic Party and don't want to admit it isn't their party any more, whilst impeding the growth of the new party. You can't run against Republican mismanagement in Boyd's district, because he isn't willing to reject it explicitly - he accepts too many of their arguments implicitly.

R+6 districts are never easy, especially when they're in the old South and your candidate is black, but we won an R+5 district in Florida with Grayson, who's an out-and-out liberal, which is even more toxic.

I'm not saying Lawson would win, although I don't think we can say he'd definitely lose. But I reckon Lawson would have a better chance than Boyd of stopping that district going to R+11 next time, whereas Boyd would maintain his margins and see every other Democrat's numbers drop. And I say that as someone who believes Lawson would 98% of the time vote like Heath Shuler.

I also have some qualms about Lawson as CFO. $78,000 isn't good for a primary, but at least there you can try to runa cheap one based on turnout. It rarely works, but it's a theoretically possible method. Whereas if you want to run for CFO, you should be a fundraising dynamo. Even with the party spigots turned off, I'd expect Lawson to have raised 3 times that if he were a credible CFO candidate.

[ Parent ]
Rural panhandle Florida versus Orlando
One is moving to the Dems the other to the Repubs.
[ Parent ]
Absolutely
But right now, they're pretty similar and right now Hispanic turnout tends to be higher than black turnout. I'm not saying Lawson could hold this seat for three decades. But I seriously doubt any Democrat could and I'd rather have Lawson for three cycles than Boyd for five.
[ Parent ]
You'd have Lawson for ONE cycle tops
I believe repubs have only sockpuppets running in FL-02 in 2010 so it's possible Lawson could win a general next year.  But he would get crushed in 2012 by a halfway credible republican.
[ Parent ]
Again, what makes you conclude that?
Like I said, Lawson has demonstrated the ability to win the swing areas of the district.  If your concern is redistricting, I can only say we better hope like hell Sink wins the governor's mansion next year.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Unfortunately
Even if Sink does get in and force an incumbent protection map it's unlikely to shore up the 2nd district much.  There is not much that can be doen to make it more democratic.
[ Parent ]
They could probably re-add some of the counties along the Georgia border
And remove the uber-Republican counties in the west.  The fact that the Tallahassee area is growing pretty rapidly may help shrink the district even more.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Fundraising disparity is enormous
Lawson doesn't even have 100K on hand.
[ Parent ]
Too bad
Allen Boyd, who was the only Democrat who supported Bush's Social Security plan, and bashed Democrats who opposed it, is a cancer and needs to go.
So....
...because he can't raise any money for a House race, he's switching to a statewide race? That doesn't make any sense to me.
Two things.
1. More money would flow his way.  The state party would support his campaign and donors would have a reason to open their coffers for him, when they didn't in a primary challenge to Boyd.

2. An open seat for the CFO might be less competitive overall than a US House seat with an incumbent who fits the district.  

[ Parent ]
He'd
also have an easier time winning statewide than in a congressional district where a good number of the voters are more conservative than statewide.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
This is good news
We need a good candidate for CFO and this fills that void. Also, I think Lawson has a better chance of winning statewide than winning in FL-02, so I think this is a better move for him.
Great news
A primary challenge in a district like this is totally stupid.  A warm body getting in the CFO race is good news too, but freeing us of one obtuse primary challege in red district is a great development.
Yep
I agree 100%.
[ Parent ]
Great News
I can see why progressives use the "better dem" strategy (though I obviously disagree that more liberal = better dem), but I think too many go overboard with it. I was looking at OpenLeft and reading some of the "Bush Dog" mess and it seems we've had a left-wing version of the teabaggers in the Democratic Party.

Again, I'm not bashing the strategy, I completely understand why some liberal members want more liberal representation, it's just, I think we can easily say a liberal cannot be elected to every district, just like a conservative cannot be elected in every district. Just as we Blue Dogs tolerate progressives, progressives should return the favor. Without our coalition, we return the majority back to the GOP. Someone who votes with me on 60% of the issues is more of an ally than someone who votes with me 10% of the time.

Anyway, if Lawson does drop out then that's great news for FL-02 and for voters throughout Florida since he'll be running statewide. Glad to see the Florida Democratic Party (FDP? or is it Democratic Party of Florida?) pushing for a candidate in all the statewide seats.

Now, if only they could convince the Democratic Party of Georgia to do the same. We're still lacking a candidate for Lt. Governor and Agriculture Commissioner :(

w/r/t OpenLeft - suffice to say that the posters here who would
vote for Rs over certain blue dogs -

would be in the mainstream at OpenLeft.

I'm inclined to say our anti-blue dog posters here would be moderate relative to that crowd, but that may be going too far.

(Though their "bush dog" list included Brian Baird (WA-03) for supporting Bush on Iraq, despite voting with Ds 98% of the time.) Besides, on the whole, Bowers, Lux, and Sirota are strong progressive intellectuals.

However, last I checked, they were surprised that Owens (NY-23) voted for the PO. That suggests they weren't really paying attention in the recent election.

[ Parent ]
I spent most of last year there
The first sign of trouble was when they thought the convention was a repeat of the 2004 mess. It was like they demanded a hate-fest along the lines of Pat Buchanan in 1992.
[ Parent ]
Hey, David....
  Why is that most things that are off-topic are not tolerated here, but the Open Left bashing goes and never seems to die?  What a bore.

24, Male, GA-05
Hrmm
If it's been a problem in the past then I apologize for mentioning the site. I've never noticed it mentioned on here.

I was just commenting on the "better dem" strategy that I see so often from the progressive blogosphere because it was mentioned in this thread.

[ Parent ]
Not a bad point
I shall refrain from now on.
[ Parent ]
wilco, n/t

[ Parent ]
Boyd's ratings ('08) suggest that he's not a 'mega blue-dog'
ref votesmart.org

Planned Parenthood - 80%
ACLU - 73%
AFL-CIO -71%
ADA - 75%

And from WaPo - http://projects.washingtonpost...

Allen Boyd has voted with a majority of his Democratic colleagues 96.0% of the time during the current Congress.

Two points.
One, look at Boyd's yearly ratings.  He has a nasty habit of being (comparatively) more liberal during the off year but getting FAR more conservative in the election year.

Two, that 4% of non-party votes includes HCR (quite possibly the single-most important piece of legislation politically this year) as well as the stimulus (quite possibly the single-most important piece of legislation policy-wise) and Lilly Ledbetter (so much a no brainer that even dozens of Republicans vote for it).  Not every vote is equal; that's something missed it methods such as that.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
But
"Not every vote is equal; that's something missed it methods such as that."

No, but Boyd and others who might break with the party on the final vote usually (though not in every case) vote to allow the legislation to make it to that final vote whether its in committee or votes leading up to the passage vote and/or conference report.

I'd say that's important as well.

Also, with regards to the legislation mentioned, you neglected to mention that Boyd voted for the final conference report, which is the true final passage of the bill.

[ Parent ]
My contention - Boyd is not a <i>mega </i> blue dog
His votes with other Ds are more consistent than I've seen from any other blue dog. (Can anyone find a blue dog who votes more often with Ds as defined by the WaPo database?)

The ratings I cite from the other groups are from '08. Last I checked, that was an election year.

So even in the last election year, Boyd is

80% pro Planned Parenthood
73% pro ACLU
71% pro Labor (AFL-CIO)
and

75% liberal, as defined by the ADA.

Besides, the votes noted by TheUnknown285 all passed. With a 96% pro-D voting record, it would be important for a blue dog to distinguish himself as such.

And as long as said votes don't affect final passage on the noted important issues, such votes are (grudgingly) acceptable to me.

Based on my research, I believe it is therefore unfair to call Boyd a mega blue dog.

[ Parent ]
Lawson Still In
Guess the purists might still get a chance at taking out Boyd: http://www.tallahassee.com/art...
FL-02: Lawson May Drop Primary Challenge | 49 comments

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