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MA-Sen: Big Dog for Coakley As Capuano May Be Gaining

by: Crisitunity

Mon Dec 07, 2009 at 2:11 PM EST


With the Democratic primary special election to replace Ted Kennedy set for tomorrow, AG Martha Coakley brought out her biggest gun last, via robocall:

Last night, her campaign announced that President Clinton had recorded the phone message.

"Martha Coakley will go to Washington to fight every day to create good jobs with good benefits and to get health reform with a strong public option," Clinton says in the message. "You can trust her to get results in the Senate just as she has as your attorney general. This election is very important to Massachusetts. So don't forget to vote tomorrow and please vote for Martha Coakley."

Coakley is hoping to blunt some last-minute momentum from Rep. Michael Capuano, at least as seen in his own internal poll from pollster Tom Kiley. Kiley says that Coakley is "around" 35, with Capuano down by 7 points (for presumably 28), with Stephen Pagliuca around 10 and Alan Khazei around 7. This is quite different, naturally, from Coakley's own internals announced on Friday, where she leads Capuano 41-20, so the question remains: is Capuano within striking distance, or not?

City Year founder Khazei doesn't look like he's going to be winning, but his is an interesting story, in terms of the establishment endorsements he picked up along the way. Not only did he get the Boston Globe's endorsement, but this photo via Politico gives a hint of where the Kennedy family's heart may lie: it shows Caroline Kennedy in attendance at Michael Bloomberg's fundraiser for Khazei (although she did not officially endorse or even donate).

RaceTracker Wiki: MA-Sen

Crisitunity :: MA-Sen: Big Dog for Coakley As Capuano May Be Gaining
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To be fair
I think Patrick Kennedy attended a Capuano fundraiser, although he didn't officially endorse either.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


Khazei's not going to Washington this time
But he's definitely impressive. What CD does he live in? I could see a congressional career in his future if he shows over 10% tomorrow and happens to live in one of the districts that could conceivable open up in the next few cycles.

Also, if I'm not mistaken, wouldn't he be the first Persian-American in congress?

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.


He lives in Brookline
Which is in Barney Frank's district. Barney's 69 years old, in the next 10-20 years Khazei should have a shot.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Barney wrote in his memoir
that he is looking to retire soon and be on the Obama Cabinet, which would be a great capstone to his career, first openly GLBT cabinet member.  I thinks Urban and Housing.

[ Parent ]
As between the top two, I don't have a preference
As a Massachusetts resident, I would probably prefer that Capuano stay in the House. HIs seniority doesn't transfer to the Senate, and he would be number 100. Of course, his House colleagues have a variety of reasons to want him in the Senate (EMK was always considered to be the workhorse of the Senate delegation, and Kerry. . .not so much; they want someone there who can move legislation).  

Redistricting perhaps?
Could MA congressional support for Capuano have something to do with MA losing a congressional district in the next re-apportionment? If the folks in and around his district worry about having to run against him, it would make sense for them to support his "moving up" and then they can divy up his seat and avoid a bloddy street brawl. If he does lose, as it appears he will, he may not have enough funds to successfully fight a primary so he'll likely retire and his district will be dissolved and absorbed into neighboring seats.  

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  


I would be very surprised
if they cut out Capuano's seat. Most likely they will throw Olver and Neal together, since most of the population loss has been in Western Mass. Trying to chop up Capuano's district would lead to an unnecessarily messy map.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Not to mention
I think Capuano's seat might be VRA protected since it's under 50% white but I'm not sure about that.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
I came up with a plan to perserve the VRA district and still eliminate his seat
Using Dave's App.  I wrote it up for Blue Mass Group:

http://bluemassgroup.com/diary...

Basically Lynch gets the heavily minority parts of Boston, making his district Majority - Minority, while Somerville, Cambridge, Allston/Brighton and the Back Bay get moved into Markey's district.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08


[ Parent ]
I'm sure liberals would love that map
seeing as how Lynch would probably get a primary challenger. Capuano himself might as well move to Boston and try it.

On the other hand would the state legislature really want to do something like stretching the 1st all the way to Framingham just to get rid of that seat? Olver must be nearing retirement...

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Nevermind, I just realized
that the map would be in case Capuano got elected. Either way I'm sure there's a strong challenger in Boston. What about state Sens Sonia Chang-Diaz, Marian Walsh, or Anthony Petruccelli. Some other state sens like Brian Joyce and Thomas Kennedy also live in your new 8th although I'm not sure if they could win without a base in Boston.  

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
The assumption of the map is that Capuano wins the Senate race
So he wouldn't be around to challenge Lynch, whoever won the special election to replace him would be though.  I agree that the 1st becomes a bit ridiculous in this map and I think that combining it with the second is a more likely solution.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
I Wish.
Hard to see that happening since Lynch is probably the Rep with the most juice on Beacon Hill.

Olver is probably going to be eased into retirement. He's ancient, and Western Mass just doesn't have the population for 2 districts.

I suppose that someone could get an administration appointment instead.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03


[ Parent ]
Given Lynch a gig in the Justice Department
n/t

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

[ Parent ]

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