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NV-Sen, NV-Gov: More Trouble for the Reid Boys

by: Crisitunity

Fri Dec 04, 2009 at 4:03 PM EST


Mason-Dixon for the Las Vegas Review-Journal (11/30-12/2, likely voters, 10/6-8 in parens):

Harry Reid (D-inc): 42 (43)
Danny Tarkanian (R): 48 (48)

Harry Reid (D-inc): 41 (39)
Sue Lowden (R): 51 (49)
(MoE: ±4%)

Them ol' Reid Boys got themselves a heap of trouble. Harry Reid trails both Sue Lowden and Danny Tarkanian by significant margins. Reid also has bad favorables of 38/49, compared with blank-slate-ish results for the GOPers: 33/13 for Lowden and 32/12 for Tarkanian.

Former state party chair Lowden, who now has prominent GOP strategist Dick Wadhams in her cheering section, has a lot of noisy detractors in the GOP screaming "RINO" (mostly from Paulists ticked off over her anti-Ron Paul chicanery at the 2008 caucus). But she still has enough establishment support for a small plurality in the primary, as seen below. Note that the big gainer is, as I expected, right-wing Assemblywoman Sharron Angle, who seems to be carrying the movement conservative flag in this race. But contrary to what I expected, this may be more of a three-way race than a five-way, though: rich guy John Chachas and state Sen. Mark Amodei are down at 1% with the nobodies.

Sue Lowden (R): 25 (23)
Danny Tarkanian (R): 24 (21)
Sharron Angle (R): 13 (9)
Bill Parson (R): 1 (1)
Robin Titus (R): 1 (1)
Mike Wiley (R): 1 (1)
John Chachas (R): 1 (NA)
Mark Amodei (R): 1 (NA)
Undecided: 33 (44)
(MoE: ±6%)

Political Wire also has a leaked look at the same poll's gubernatorial numbers. UPDATE (DavidNYC, 12/5): The full numbers are now available from the LVRJ:

Jim Gibbons (R-inc): 18
Brian Sandoval (R): 39
Michael Montadon (R): 6
Undecided: 37
(MoE: ±6%)

Rory Reid (D): 34 (33)
Brian Sandoval (R): 49 (50)
Undecided: 17

Rory Reid (D): 48
Jim Gibbons (R-inc): 34
Undecided: 18

Rory Reid (D): 24 (25)
Brian Sandoval (R): 32 (33)
Oscar Goodman (I): 35 (33)
Undecided: 9

Rory Reid (D): 25
Jim Gibbons (R-inc): 25
Oscar Goodman (I): 38
Undecided: 12
(MoE: ±4%)

The younger half of the Reid boys, Clark County Commissioner Rory Reid, isn't faring well either, getting pasted by Republican former AG Brian Sandoval in a two-way and finishing third behind Las Vegas mayor Oscar Goodman and Sandoval in a three-way. My personal wish list is to see a Goodman/Reid Dem primary matchup and a Goodman/Sandoval general polled -- Goodman is a Dem as Las Vegas mayor, and running as a Dem would probably only increase his chances of winning the general as he'd probably pick up most of those Reid votes in the general (however, he's been pretty adamant that if he runs, it's as an indie). Not that we might necessarily want the, um, "colorful" Goodman to be governor, but that's a whole 'nother kettle of fish.

I'm not sure if the LVRJ didn't leak numbers of a Reid/Gibbons and Goodman/Reid/Gibbons matchup like they did last time, or if they didn't even bother polling it. (UPDATE: They did poll Gibbons.) This time (unlike last time), they tested the GOP primary, finding a mighty edge for former AG Brian Sandoval, so maybe they decided just not to bother polling Gibbons in the general. Problems abound on every front today for Gibbons, whose soon-to-be-ex-wife Dawn is interviewed in Reno Magazine and paints an entirely unsympathetic portrait of the governor.

RaceTracker Wiki: NV-Sen | NV-Gov
Crisitunity :: NV-Sen, NV-Gov: More Trouble for the Reid Boys
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NV-Sen, NV-Gov: More Trouble for the Reid Boys | 53 comments
No great loss
Harry Reid has been ineffective as majority leader. I'll take Schumer or anybody with some guts who would be better at that job even with less dems than Reid has been with a majority.  
Majority Leader vs. Senate seat
No, he hasn't been a good Majority Leader, but if he loses, let's not kid ourselves: That vote will be missed.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
It might not be missed one bit.
I'd rather have 59 seats then 60 when in the latter scenario we have a senate leader who caves 100% of the time, and won't let us pass anything without 60 votes.
[ Parent ]
Not if we replace that vote with Carnahan, Hodes, etc.


My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
That's a big "if"
As far as I'm concerned, any decent Democratic vote is a big loss. I don't like Reid as Majority Leader, but I believe his politics are around the middle of the Democratic Party, not to the right like the Nelsons, Lincoln, and Landrieu.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
I want Reid gone as Majority Leader, not Senator.
His actual votes aren't that bad (unlike others).  He just sucks as a leader.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Exactly
n/t

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
It's a great loss because we lose a freakin' senate seat (nt)

[ Parent ]
I don't see why Harry doesn't just retire.
If I were in his shoes, it's what I'd be doing-he's older than dirt after all, no one likes him, and it'd make things a little less difficult for his son (not that I'm a fan of Rory mind you).  Plus it'd give us a chance to run a fresh face who might have a better chance at winning AND be more effective in the Senate.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com
Majority Leader
There's no reason to think that Reid will automatically get ML if he is reelected so maybe if he wins we can have our cake and eat it too.
Actually there is
Harry Reid has a very powerful trump card.  

It was under Harry Reid's leadership that the Democrats went from 45 to 60 seats.  It would be very difficult to argue that a someone with a record like that should be replaced.

The only way that Harry Reid is not Majority leader in 2011 is if he is not in the Senate.

[ Parent ]
No
it was Chuck Schumer who was responsible for that. He headed up the DSCC...actually, give me Schumer for majority leader.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Give me any majority leader
As long as the Senator comes from a SOLID BLUE state.  Durbin or Schumer works for me.  Recent history should be clear that it's better electorally to have the party leader in each chamber from an easily defensible state.
[ Parent ]
Yup

[ Parent ]
Does he have no primary opponents?

Shelley Berkley to the white courtesy phone. . .

Different needs
When Democrats had two independents, one Joe Lieberman, for a bare 51-49 majority and faced Dick Cheney as the tie breaker, Reid was OK.

He's not in opposition any more and the collegial caution that was appropriate in the past is destructive today.  Change your tactics and style, Harry, or the voters will do it for you.

There is no way that Evan Bayh would a) move sharply rightward and b) create a group of Conservadems without significant pressure under a more forceful leader.  Ben Nelson would face some encouragement not to screw up the stimulus and other packages.  Lincoln and Landrieu would be schooled and Masx Baucus' dalliance with Republicans in the Finance Com mitte (ahead of Democrats) should have gotten him replaced.

Ironically, after the 2010 elections, it may be too late to replace Reid even if he is re-elected. It is certainly not hard to see Harry creating conditions, once again where 60 seats is replaced by (to pull a number out of a hat) 53.  We are not there yet but he's creating the conditions.  

Reid will need a miracle to win this thing
That miracle is Sharron Angle somehow winning the Primary. Which ain't happening.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
Reid the Younger
Can somebody explain to me how Rory Reid has the gubernatorial primary field to himself? I would think his father muscled him through but from previous reports it doesn't seem like either of them want the other in the race.  
nice user name
I love the wire.
Yeah I don't get how Rory has the field to himself, especially since Harry doesn't want him to run. Maybe the governorship of Nevada is a clusterfuck and that's why no one else wants it.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
[ Parent ]
My guess is
they expected to be dragged down by Reid in the general.
[ Parent ]
This really sucks
Nevada is a state that is really trending in the Democratic direction, particularly in populous Clark and Washoe counties.  Obama won here by an astounding 12%.  There's no reason whatsoever that there should be TWO Republican senators from Nevada given that it's purple even on a bad day.  

I chalk this up to unpopularity of the incumbent, and what's even more unfortunate is that Harry Reid's unpopularity threatens to screw up what should be an easy win for us in the governor's race.  I think we're headed to an independent governor in Nevada, usually when an incumbent is as unpopular as Gibbons is, that candidate's party has no chance the next time around.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

Oscar Goodman
So since he'd basically be a democrat running as an independent I wonder if he would sign off on a democratic gerrymander of Nevada in 2012.  Anyone know?
Nevada's gaining a seat
but it's unlikely to produce a 3-1 map regardless of who is running the show. It's more likely to produce a 2-2 map, with two safe urban/inner suburban Democratic seats, a rural Republican seat, and a suburban Republican seat that includes the Mormon-heavy suburbs outside Las Vegas.
[ Parent ]
Useless poll
Poll Goodman as a Democrat against the best Republican... show him winning by 15 points.  Force him to small the coffee.

Poll Berkley against Reid.  Poll some unknown state senator against Reid.  See what the numbers are.  

Another poll saying the Reids suck is a waste of time.

(Are Nevada Democrats really this wimpy. Almost anybody outspent 10-1 could still beat someone named Reid.)

fortunately there's still time
for the right people to step forward and run - Berkley for Senate and Goodman as a Dem for Gov

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
[ Parent ]
Would Berkley really be a good candidate?
I never had the impression she'd be a good statewide candidate.
[ Parent ]
any "experienced" Dem
without the baggage of Harry Reid should be good enough

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
[ Parent ]
Harry Reid
is like a scarlet letter around the Democrats in Nevada.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Eh hard to say
She'd be better than Reid, who I think is tainted beyond hope. However she's not actually as liberal as her district would allow, and I think you could argue that she's a pretty good fit ideologically statewide. However, she hasn't had to run a serious race since 2000, when her district will still swing. And I guess she's had a couple of minor scandals, but nothing compared to, say, John Ensign or Jim Gibbons.
In any event, I'd like to see her take a shot. We'd get someone even better in NV-01 and quite possibly in NV-SEN as well.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
[ Parent ]
Eh hard to say
She'd be better than Reid, who I think is tainted beyond hope. However she's not actually as liberal as her district would allow, and I think you could argue that she's a pretty good fit ideologically statewide. However, she hasn't had to run a serious race since 2000, when her district will still swing. And I guess she's had a couple of minor scandals, but nothing compared to, say, John Ensign or Jim Gibbons.
In any event, I'd like to see her take a shot. We'd get someone even better in NV-01 and quite possibly in NV-SEN as well.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
[ Parent ]
there's also the question of the polling's accuracy
the polls right before 2008 showed obama with a slight lead, yet he won with 55%.  it's possible that a combination of the highly fluctuating electorate (people moving in and out), a high number of people using cell phones unreachable by pollsters and illegals who vote but don't have phones (or don't want to answer the poll) is scewing the results towards the republicans.    

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
illegals who vote?

[ Parent ]
Yes
Obviously you are unaware of the army of illegals who vote thanks to ACORN.  Word has it they numbered about 10 million in 2008 and helped Obama steal the election.
[ Parent ]
Yep.
The opening scene of this video is based on the way it happens, with ACORN being portrayed by Darth Vader.  Those poor red blooded, white skinned Americans, I mean Jedi...



Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Oh my...
The conspiracy is even deeper than I thought!
[ Parent ]
You have no idea.
The deaths of Jedi are supposed to represent the deaths of fine American ideals like golf, apple pie, and motherhood.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
NV
Once again, can anyone answer me as to why Goodman is so willing to run as Mayor as a Democrat but not Governor?  It's not like this is Alabama.

29/D/Male/NY-01
I think he thinks the Reid's own the state and the state party
and it just isn't so.

Goodman could beat Rory just by having his name on the ballot.

I think Goodman wants to be seen as maverick-y and beholden to no one, but if he wins by a few points in a three way race, what will that get him?  Not much.

If he runs as a Demucrat he can win easily, both the primary and the general, and THAT would make him "the man", whcih I think is a lot of what he seeks.

The ego aspect of that aside, it is also what western Dems needs, a popular, outsized, flamboyant figure who doesn't cower or hide who he is.

Obama carried Nevada by a surprising margin.  The votes are similarly there for Goodman, but not so much for the dull, old guy and his presumptuous son.

This is one state we should be way ahead, in both races, but especially the Gov race.  Instead we got two dull duds.

[ Parent ]
He has switched parties before
And has said in the past he disagrees with some Democratic orthodoxy, so he could have a legit beef with the state party and just wants to be an independent.
[ Parent ]
Gibbons... just wow
Gov. Gibbons soon to be ex-wife on her husband.  What a jerk.

http://www.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.d...

Gibbons says her future husband was easy to get along with, and she remembers thinking he was a good man.

But after a year-and-a-half, she broke off the relationship because she felt unappreciated. She says the final straw was when he gave her a birthday card that read, "You're so lucky because you have me."


Jim Gibbons is a bad man...
(See if anyone gets the reference).

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Sounds like something
a drunken House elf would say...

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com
[ Parent ]
House elf?
What does Dennis Kucinich have to do with this?
[ Parent ]
Here


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Here's An Honest Question
Does Harry Reid even know this blog exists, let alone reads it? I know Schumer does, but Reid is so inanimate I doubt he's even glanced at a computer, even for porn.

Let's hope he does know of your existence, then he can realize how much he sucks.

Probably not
Reid strikes me as the type that ignores all negative press and keeps a close staff who tells him how great he is.  He probably thinks his apporovals in Nevada are in the 60's.
[ Parent ]
We have the same problem
with senators up here in Canada also being out of touch with reality. They just blocked bills from Parliament allowing mandatory government recalls of dangerous baby cribs, and that's just one example of stuff they block from the elected lower house since they, the upper house, are not elected but appointed. These guys really need to step outside and have a coffee and talk to people.
[ Parent ]
Reid wrote a diary on Daily Kos in 2006
He, or at least someone on his staff, probably knows this blog exists.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
[ Parent ]
I'm rooting for Chachas
because of the name.

Charmin, cha-cha-chas!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

Libertarian Party candidate for US Senate for Nevada
Jim Duensing (recently shot by police) is running for US Senate as a Libertarian Party candidate.

http://HellForHarry.com/

http://www.google.com/search?q...

I guess hell doesn't get much worse than
having your opponents split the vote, huh?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
and wow
did he seriously put a video of Robert Redford under "The Candidate"? Delusions of grandeur much?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
NV-Sen, NV-Gov: More Trouble for the Reid Boys | 53 comments

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