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NJ-Gov: Quinnipiac Bears Good News

by: Crisitunity

Wed Oct 28, 2009 at 12:45 PM EDT


Quinnipiac (10/20-26, likely voters, 10/7-12 in parentheses):

Jon Corzine (D): 43 (40)
Chris Christie (R): 38 (41)
Chris Daggett (I): 13 (14)
Don't know: 5 (5)
(MoE: ±2.8%)

Yet another twist in the roller coaster ride that the New Jersey gubernatorial race has become as it races through the final stretch. Yesterday was a stomach-clenching drop as PPP and Rasmussen gave a small edge to Chris Christie, helped along by Chris Daggett losing momentum. But today Quinnipiac finds a 5-point Jon Corzine lead (even with Daggett pulling in the same 13 that PPP saw yesterday), the first time they've seen Corzine on top. 38% of Daggett supporters say they might change their mind, with 43% saying Christie is their 2nd choice and 27% saying it's Corzine.

Corzine seems to have made a bit of improvement on his still-lousy favorables as well: he's up to 41/52, while Christie has sunk to his lowest marks, 37/42. This points to a race that couldn't be more of a tossup; if there's any doubt, Pollster.com's regression line today (with the new Quinnipiac included -- and, unfortunately, that Suffolk outlier too) averages it all out at a 41-39 Corzine lead.

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Crisitunity :: NJ-Gov: Quinnipiac Bears Good News
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NJ-Gov: Quinnipiac Bears Good News | 41 comments
If you were to ask me who
Who was going to win in the NJ & VA races a few months ago, I would have said Deeds and Christie would win.  Kinda funny how their trend lines changed in the last few months.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
Quinnipiac has the most experience with NJ
They've been polling the state since the 80s and PPP just started doing polls with the 2008 and this is the NJ-gov race is the first race that PPP has ever done polls in NJ. Since NJ is the toughest state in the country to poll and QU has the most experience and the highest sample size, I think we need to take the QU poll more seriously. I want to make a point that last year PPP was extremely accurate, especially with the North Carolina polls and final presidential polls. PPP predicted a Franken win in MN, and a Obama win in NC and IN. PPP was also one of the few polls the predicted that Dole could loose even when she was ahead by double digits. However, when it comes to New Jersey, due to how complicated the state is, it takes a lot of experience polling that state over the years in order to be able to predict an accurate result.
Why is NJ toughest to poll?
n/t

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
I believe that Alaska stole the toughest to poll from NJ.
n/t
[ Parent ]
Careful with that
While I'm a fan of PPP, they showed Franken winning by 8 points, meaning they were pretty far off the final tally. It's probably even harder to poll a race when there's a relatively strong showing by a third-party candidate.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
PPP had Franken by 5
They also give Merkley in OR a margin more than twice as large as what he got in reality. And if you look at their downballot predictions in West Virginia--some of those are funky too.

But I agree: 3-way races are a pain to poll.

[ Parent ]
Oh yeah, you're right
I don't know where I got the +8 number from... :P

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
NJ.com
According to NJ.com (basically the Star-Ledger)today, half of the undecided voters are Daggett supporters reluctant to vote for him in a close race.  That makes their Daggett numbers more consistent with other polls.

If Corzine opens up a solid lead it is over as these voters will go back to Daggett.

I'd just love to see Christie finish third.  That's not likely but it is at least slightly possible.

[ Parent ]
Im going to go out on a limb
and still predict a very slim Christie lead.  I just dont think that many people are going to be voting for Dagget and will instead shift to Christie when they actually have the ballot in front of them.

Id love to see a poll where they only polled between Christie and Corzine and discluded third party candidates.

But then again, you have the NJ effect where the general ideology of voters is quite Democratic.  (I believe this is why Kanjorski just barely hung on in 08).  These voters who sway elections simply by virtue of the electorates ideology are also probably the voters least likely to turn-out for an off-year election.

Cant wait til next Tuesday!  Good thing I have a Property mid-term that next Wed so I'll be up studying anyway!

Anyone making a firm prediction
Before THE thread is very brave. Incidentally I take it babka will be on offer to the most accurate again? :)
[ Parent ]
Predictions
NJ
43% Corzine
42% Christie
14% Daggett
1% Other
VA
58% McDonnell
42% Deeds
NY-23
43% Owens
29% Hoffman
28% Scozzafava
Charlotte Mayor
52% Foxx
48% Lassiter
NYC  Mayor
55% Bloomberg
42% Thompson
CA-10 (no math behind this one)
61% Garamendi
39% Harmer
Maine Gay Marriage
50% No (margin of victory under 2,000 votes)
50% Yes
[ Parent ]
Okay, here goes
NJ
45% Corzine
42% Christie
13% Daggett

VA
55% McDonnell
44% Deeds

NY-23
42% Owens
38% Hoffman
20% Scozzafava

(Yup, I changed my mind on this one again, but the extra attention on Hoffman is disturbing... Scott Eliot of Election Projection is predicting Hoffman 44-40-16.)

Charlotte Mayor
49% Foxx
50% Lassiter

NYC  Mayor
57% Bloomberg
41% Thompson

CA-10 (no math behind this one)
65% Garamendi
34% Harmer

Maine Gay Marriage
52% No (margin of victory under 2,000 votes)
48% Yes

(Remember, in this case, no means yes to gay marriage)

[ Parent ]
The only sure prediction I'll make now
is that Daggett will end up in single digits.
[ Parent ]
that is my fear
especially since Daggett is going to be buried way down the ballot.
[ Parent ]
All people have to do is read the ballot to find Daggett

[ Parent ]
I am cheered by the latest polls
while it's a tie basically, the trend is corzine inching up and christie slipping.  and in NJ, the democrats' gotv operation has been superior to the GOP's for a number of years.  i am cautiously optimistic.

i don't think there would be any point in a poll that did not include chris daggett because, in fact, chris daggett will be on the ballot, has participated in every debate, and is a player, whether he gets 5 or 12 or 17% of the vote.

[ Parent ]
Yeah, right ... like you're going to be STUDYING on an election night
I hope you have a good average already.

[ Parent ]
Not as bad as the one from other day
But I'm not too sure. They both get the same amount of their party base, but Christie leads by 15 with independents. How does that equal Corzine +5? ( I know Democrats outnumber Republicans, but by that much when the GOP is much more enthused?)
Last year NJ was 16 points more Dem
The PPP poll is based on a 13 point Dem advantage and Quinnipiac 15 points. That is why Corzine is still in the game without indies and why Obama is visiting at the weekend to get Dems out to vote.
[ Parent ]
Joe Wilson campaign for Chris Christie
I wonder if this is going to be static now
The election is no longer the biggest thing going on in Jersey. The state is stuck right smack in between an epic sports battle for the next week or so. lol

According to PPP
Yankee fans favor Christie by 8 points (I think, will look up later) . The Hill is saying if the Yankee's win big Monday night, it could energize the Yankee fans (and Christie supporters) to get out and vote. I'm not sure if that will actually happen
[ Parent ]
If there's a rainout in Philly
Game 5 could easily be in Philly on election day. Could that depress turnout in south Jersey? As I've read (probably here) that Christie is stronger in S Jersey, would that help Corzine?
[ Parent ]
IDK
I doubt that there is any relation between the outcome of the games and the election, just the Hill was speculating about that.  
[ Parent ]
Nuts and bolts politics
Like every close race this is about GOTV. That's why I think Daggett may significantly under perform his polling numbers. He has no GOTV operation and could suffer for it
Nuts and bolts politics
This race like all close races will be about GOTV. Because of that I could see Daggett significantly underperforming his poll numbers because he has no real GOTV operation
You guys might be interested in
The debate over this poll that jmartin4s and I have been having at Pollster with "Polaris".

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/...

I had to get away from that for a while
Polaris disputed the math that was done right in front of him. He's giving me a headache. Seriously, what is his problem???
[ Parent ]
Karl Rove sez
Dems will probably win NJ Gov and NY-23, but will lose VA Gov and downticket, which should make them very, very skerred for 2010.

Thanks Karl.

http://online.wsj.com/article/...

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

In other words we should be
Worried about the former and 2010 will be fine.
[ Parent ]
And with regard to next year...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/...

Out of recession baby!!! :)

[ Parent ]
Best news
I've seen in so, so long...

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Yup
Get health care signed and sealed then move onto jobs in the new year and Dems can run on having saved the economy. The GOP peaked waaaay too early.
[ Parent ]
No no no
Karl already has "The Math" worked out for 2010, and it don't look so good for the Democrats.  Kind of like 2006 didn't, right Karl?  Karl?

The use of the off-years as bellwhethers is pretty silly in general.  Dems should be - and are - concerned about 2010 because history says they should be.  Whether Jon Corzine or Creigh Deeds win in 2009 has little to do with it.  It's good for a news cycle or two, and maybe some short term fundraising and enthusiasm.  Otherwise, it's up to the 2010 candidates and the Fall 2010 atmosphere.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Exactly
The only time NJ and VA have been bellwethers in decent memory was 1993 and 2005.  Or am I forgetting the Republican wave of 1998 or the Democratic landslides of 1990 and 2002?  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Was 2005 really a bellweather?
I mean no real shock Corzine won and Kaine had more to do with Warner and Kilgore than Bush. Not to mention the growth of NoVa. I think most of the time we read too much into these things looking for trends.
[ Parent ]
2006 was a very clear indication of 2008 though (eom)

[ Parent ]
But 1994 was not a clear indictation of 1996 eom


Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
He's setting expectations
Christie could actually win.  
[ Parent ]
I know.
I doubt it very seriously but he can win.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
I don't give a shit what Karl has to say
Although he was right that George W Bush would usher in a "permanent majority".  He was just wrong in which side it was for.
[ Parent ]
NJ-Gov: Quinnipiac Bears Good News | 41 comments

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