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New polls showing trouble for Corzine & a Christie comeback? (w/poll)......

by: DCCyclone

Tue Oct 27, 2009 at 12:11 PM EDT


Well, both PPP and Rasmussen have released brand new NJ-Gov polls, with identical results, both bad for Corzine.

The takeaway is that it appears the Christie/Republican attacks on Daggett are working, and strangely somehow are turning the model into one where Daggett hurts Corzine more than Christie.
DCCyclone :: New polls showing trouble for Corzine & a Christie comeback? (w/poll)......
PPP released its poll this morning and shows Christie up 42-38, with Daggett at 14.  PPP explains that Daggett voters now are saying Corzine, rather than Christie, is their 2nd choice, by a 44-32 margin.  That's a reversal of before.  Strangely this doesn't come from Daggett lcsing ground and Christie gaining; rather, Daggett is actually holding steady in his own support.  So the crosstab results could just be statistical noise, with subsamples having very high margins of error.

But Rasmussen suggests there is more than just noise going on.  Rasmussen continued its dishonesty in its latest NJ-Gov poll, but this time with a twist:  the real topline looks better for Christie than the published one.  The real topline with "initial preferences" shows the same result as PPP, at 42-38, with Daggett at 14.  Their published topline is Christie up 46-43, with Daggett at 7--actually a narrower Christie lead than the real topline.  Rasmussen cooks its numbers as a rule this year, but their close-to-election numbers boomerang back to the norm of other pollsters...they pretty much have no choice to maintain their reputation.

Two polls, two identical results, two both showing a flip in which side is bleeding to Daggett.

PPP explicitly suggests that Christie's attacks on Daggett are doing the trick.  I didn't think tying Daggett to Corzine would be effective, especially when the attack narrative started so late, barely a month out.

I hope these polls are wrong and it really remains a dead heat.  I'm aware of the Suffolk poll from a few days ago showing Corzine up by a big margin, but that poll was flawed and has "outlier" written all over it.

I really hope Corzine can pull this out, because we've reached the point where his defeat would look worse than it should have, given the latest expectations that his comeback was near-complete.
Poll
Does Corzine win reelection?
Yes
No

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New polls showing trouble for Corzine & a Christie comeback? (w/poll)...... | 31 comments
yeah, not good

Christie is still in the driver's seat
While Corzine has been making gains, the Suffolk poll was the only one to show him with a real lead beyond the MoE.  At best Corzine has been in a dead heat - I think there was a lot of optimism from Democrats that this would decisively swing Corzine's way, but at best we can hope for a narrow victory.  But, I still take heart from this.  If Corzine can force this election into the wee hours after the press goes to bed, than we'll have essentially created a push where a Christie victory would be robbed of any good headlines for the Republican Party.  If we can win the NY-23 at the same time, than the whole night will just look like a wash to the average voter - a GOP gubernatorial pickup in a purple state, a Democratic pickup in a purple Congressional district, and a tossup race where the eventual victor will have only eked out a victory and would have little sway on the national scene.  Maybe I'm overthinking this, but that seems to be the scenario we're headed towards, and as the incumbent party all we need is a draw.  If Christie and McDonnell were to both win decisively come Election Day, than we're going to have some bad headlines and even more nauseating comparisons to 1994 come Wednesday morning, which will be a pain in the ass to deal with.
If Chris Christie wins...
I think it's enough of a blow to overshadow any of the good that would come out of a Bill Owens win. And, if Owens loses, we're in HUGE trouble.

Of course, if Corzine and Owens win, it's all good.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Hope Corzine is gone!
yeah...not a big fan of Corzine, he's kind of slimey. All my friends and family will be heading out for Christie.
He's slimey?
Maybe.

But Christie is at best no better, and at worst a thousand times slimeyer.

[ Parent ]
Are you really sure you want to make your very first post here ...
... an attack on the Democratic candidate in the most hotly contested election of the fall?
[ Parent ]
Me too...
I would love for Corzine to just get his ass handed to him; New Jersey deserves a corrupt Bush extremists as their governor.
[ Parent ]
It's actually pretty lucky.
That Corzine is even in this at all. If the R's had just nominated someone who knew how to campaign and wasn't hiding so much this race would be over.

I guess what we take from this is that Christie has managed to stop bleeding his soft support, which is bad news.

You know Rasmussen actually hasn't being particularly skewed in this race. They had Christie up early and then had his support slumping from August onward. That's what most of the other polling indicated.  

The thing that is really pretty lucky
is that Republicans can surpass 30% of the vote.
Republicans should praise the ignorance of America.
[ Parent ]
Why do you
hate America?

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Because I am a Democrat.
n/t
[ Parent ]
Touche my friend...


34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Not terribly worried:
1. Obama rally with Corzine should give a last minute boost (Nov. 1st, IIRC)

2. NJ always gives the Dems a few more points than the polls.  

Yea I'm not worried either.
Though my main concern is that this race proves that a lot of Democrats don't vote based on logic and facts but instead vote like all Republicans vote, based on invalid irrelevant bullshit. America's still an ignorant filled moron-hole.
[ Parent ]
likely voter models
probably explain the discrepancies between these polls. I guess it all comes down to GOTV.
WTF
Quinnipiac says Corzine by 5.  What's a guy to think about this race?  I'm thinking it's right down the middle.  I suspect both PPP and Rasmussen are using pretty aggressive likely voter models.  At the same time, I don't think Corzine has a significant lead.

This muddled polling reminds me of Franken vs. Coleman.  Actually, this whole thing reminds me of Franken vs. Coleman, with the ascendant third party, the nosediving Republican, and the Democrat whose poll numbers are stuck at about 40% for months.

Dem GOTV is critical.  Come on Corzine!

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

Wow
here's the link.

Corzine 43%

Christie 38%

Daggett 13%.

[ Parent ]
Maybe the difference
Something to do with IVR though I don't know why.
[ Parent ]
Who knows

[ Parent ]
The dates are also longer
20-26 versus 23-26 and just the 26th. But I don't see how that could make up this much of a difference. We are talking about a swing of 8-9 points. Maybe weekend polling?
[ Parent ]
Not methodology, I bet it's...
...a volatile electorate.  A lot of people just aren't sure in this three-way, fickle enough to think one thing one day, a second thing the next day, and a third thing the day after that.  I bet there are even a few people torn between all three!  Seriously!

I think it's all voter ID and turnout now.  GOTV baby!

I feel a lot better after this Q-poll combined with that Suffolk poll, they prove this thing is up for grabs and that Rasmussen and PPP aren't necessarily on to anything.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Looking at the Q internals
Completely opposite to Ras and PPP on Daggett second choices - 43-27 say Christie. And Corzine doing much better with Democrats. Christie is seen as more untrustworthy. Obama approval also seems more likely here at 55-39. Looking back at 2005 the final Q poll had Corzine up 7 versus the 5 point margin in the last Rasmussen. On election day of course it was 53-43. I'm still waiting for the Jersey-based polls to weigh-in though.
[ Parent ]
NJ pollsters
The final Rutgers/Eagleton and Monmouth/Gannett polls will be interesting. A positive for the Quinnipiac poll is that QU has been polling NJ for a long time so they are pretty good at polling the state.  Plus, conventional wisdom on the ground in NJ is that Daggett is hurting Christie more than Corzine, so the QU results on that matter make sense.

27, Independent, NJ-12
[ Parent ]
Makes sense
Usually the first decision a voter makes in an election is whether or not the incumbent deserves to keep his or her job.  A lot of those Daggett voters have already decided that Corzine doesn't deserve a second chance at governing, but don't necessarily think Christie is more qualified to replace him.  Both Daggett and Christie are in essence contending for the same pool of voters, which hurts each other.  There probably are some folks out there who think that Corzine is a bum but no one else better so they vote for him; however, it's most likely in the single digits.  This is very similar to Minnesota, where the majority of the state didn't like Coleman but weren't too thrilled with Franken, allowing Barkley to eat up a lot of that anti-incumbent vote.  
[ Parent ]
Try 15% to 20%
I live in Jersey.  Christie had run a terrible campaign, described by a conservative columnist as "the worst ever."  He is unlikeable.  That comes out all over the place.  He's either stupid, or worse, he thinks Jersey voters are stupid.  He's tied to multiple instances of influence peddling including a really bad case where he made multiple phone calls to keep his brother from being indicted.  His uncle is the #3 guy in the Jersey Mafia.  He kept his job by enthusiastically doing Karl Rove's bidding.

No wonder Christie's ethics problems are dominating this campaign.

What it comes down to is that Democrats in Jersey would have preferred to nominate someone else but the remnants of Corzine's fortune kept his seat.  A moderate Republican (like a Daggett or a Chris Snith or a Frank LoBiondo or a Rodney Frelinghuysen) would have won this one easily.

Christie lies on taxes.  His numbers don't add up and he seems primed for stupid, unspecified budget cuts and even more corporate give aways.

Do I like Corzine?  No.  He's way too pro-corporate.  He's shifty and has done the right thing because he's been forced into doing the right thing but with conservadem boss George Norcross suddenly grabbing control of the state senate next year through back room maneuverings, the road blocks will suddenly end.

Letting the un-elected Norcross and Christie pillage the state is unthinkable.  I'm voting for Corzine.  And many others are doing the same thing.

[ Parent ]
His uncle is literally a Mafia underboss or something?
n/t

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Not a blood relation
His aunt's brother-in-law, and yes, literally mobbed up (a Genovese family lieutenant, currently doing a 25-year prison term):

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09...

[ Parent ]
I trust more a pollster that shows Obama approval higher because...
...that's how the campaigns are acting.

That's the thing, one of the better ways to resolve conflicting polls is to compare the polls against candidate and campaign behavior.

Corzine claims he's Obama's love child.  So his internals have Obama's approval sky high.

And Christie doesn't bash Obama at all, barely even mentions Obama's policies, and indeed occasionally borrows Obama imaging for himself.  So his internals, too, have Obama's approval sky high.

So a pollster showing high Obama approval is closer to reality than one showing a more mixed picture.

By the way, the same analysis supports concluding that Obama remains popular in Virginia.  Deeds has been schizophrenic about tying himself to Obama, but that doesn't say much because he's run such a bad campaign that he's done a lot of things that leave our heads scratching.  At the least that he's doing a couple rallies with Obama and one so late mean Obama's approvals at worst at mixed.  But McDonnell, in contrast, avoids saying anything bad about Obama and in fact tries to tie himself to Obama on sporadic occasions.  McDonnell very tactically will criticize specific policies, such as health care and cap-and-trade, but he criticizes "Washington" or "Democrats" but never Obama by name.

The Virginia candidates' behavior jibes with the last several WaPo and Rasmussen polls and contradict the PPP polls that show lower Obama job approval.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
PPP always shows Obama approval lower
They had him in the low fifties nationally when most still had him topping 60 percent.
[ Parent ]
Christie > Corzine by 16% among Daggett 2nd choice?
That's what I find worrisome about this poll, even if the 5% spread is impressive (and curious).

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Well then believe
The Quinnipiac and Suffolk toplines and the PPP and Rasmussen on second-choices! :)
[ Parent ]
New polls showing trouble for Corzine & a Christie comeback? (w/poll)...... | 31 comments

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