IA

I get the feeling Culver has already lost this.

29/D/Male/NY-01

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by: Tekzilla @ Sun Oct 18, 2009 at 23:09:08 PM UTC

That's silly. Culver is in FAR better shape than...

...Corzine ever was, and Corzine has pulled into a dead heat.

Culver is in no worse shape than dozens of Governors who are seeing voters blame them for a bad economy that frankly is not the Governors' fault.

I actually would bet good money that Culver survives and wins.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Sun Oct 18, 2009 at 23:16:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

talking with Iowa Democrats

I've noticed that many are less worried about Culver than you would expect, given Branstad's lead in a few polls. You are absolutely right--Corzine was in much worse shape a few months ago than Culver is now, and we've got a full year to go in Iowa. The GOP primary will do some damage to Branstad, there's no doubt in my mind about that.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Mon Oct 19, 2009 at 00:32:11 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Corzine is in a much different position than Culver

1. New Jersey is way more democratic than Iowa
2. Corzine has millions to spend on a campaign
3. Corzine was leading Christie in all polls taken in 2008 through early January 2009. Culver is behind right now.
4. Corzine has a third party candidate taking away votes from Christie.
5. Branstad is a 4 term governor who has won 4 statewide election 2 of which by large margins. Christie has never ran in an election statewide in NJ before this.
6. Branstad would make a way better candidate than Christie

Corzine and Culver are in extremely different situations.

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by: jmartin4s @ Mon Oct 19, 2009 at 03:55:30 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Perhaps that - modestly - overstates your case

While several of your points are well taken,

Iowa is still a significant D state - Obama won by 10 in '08
Corzine has the handicap of being of Goldman Sachs
Brandstad hasn't yet been attacked - 'halo' candidates seem to typically go down some after an initial publicity-driven spike

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by: tietack @ Mon Oct 19, 2009 at 04:06:37 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah,

And Ron Wyden and Pat Leahy will lose big next year too I bet!

50, straight white male, Democrat(Dan Boren/Gene Taylor 2012!), AL-7(born in AL-5)

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by: Merlin @ Sun Oct 18, 2009 at 23:23:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Schumer

is so going down.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

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by: Nonpartisan @ Mon Oct 19, 2009 at 01:33:42 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah

And Martins will visit Earth to present President Obama to Galactic Harmony Award for his role in stopping the escalating conflict between Mars and Jupitar over Saturn's Asteroid Belt resources :-P

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by: Don't Tase Me, Bro! @ Mon Oct 19, 2009 at 13:08:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Tase, I suspect Nonpartisan was joining in the joke......

I don't think he was serious about Schumer.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Mon Oct 19, 2009 at 14:21:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

And what did you think I was doing?

Being serious?

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by: Don't Tase Me, Bro! @ Mon Oct 19, 2009 at 14:33:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Actually, yeah......so the joke's on me! (nm)

nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Mon Oct 19, 2009 at 18:18:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

?

Right because I made this comment on a poll where they were behind their opponents.  Oh wait, no I didn't.

29/D/Male/NY-01

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by: Tekzilla @ Mon Oct 19, 2009 at 03:57:31 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Because of your history of defeatism and infinite wrongness

People here see your comments and make fun of you, because, plainly put, there is nothing else rational or reasonable to do when presented with your consistently incorrect prognostication based on absolutely no knowledge of the race, the ground game, the players, the candidates, or anything, at least not compared to 95% of the rest of the readers on this site.

So yeah, people make fun of you each and every time you post "doom is coming to xyz Democrat!", since you are a broken record: you are stuck on the same one note, are grating on the ears and constantly repeat yourself.

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by: Ajax the Greater @ Mon Oct 19, 2009 at 18:12:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

no way

He has plenty of time to recover.

My biggest concern is not Branstad, but the fact that the Iowa economy tends to be late to enter and late to leave recessions, which means we could still be losing jobs a year from now.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Mon Oct 19, 2009 at 00:24:42 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Same thing could happen in Texas.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas said that Texas entered the recession at the beginning of 2009 so the state could still be losing jobs well into 2010, maybe even 2012. In the month of August, Texas lost over 62,000 jobs, even more than the conservatives' favorite targets of California and Michigan. And unemployment in most of the populous counties is on par with or even a bit higher than the national rate.

My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

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by: californianintexas @ Mon Oct 19, 2009 at 02:54:22 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Branstad is benefitting from euphoric recall which will pass......

When it comes to an elected official from long ago, people are forgiving of small disagreements on policy, and forgetting of what they disliked about someone.  I recall a Gallup poll early this year that showed a retrospective job approval in the 60s for all living past Presidents except Dubya, and that includes Carter and Bush 41 who were severely disliked when they were defeated.  Does that mean either of them could come back and get elected President?  Not a chance.

Branstad was never UNpopular like a defeated incumbent is, but he has his baggage, his negatives.  There's plenty of material to use against him.  And his favorables can be knocked down and his unfavorables raised with the right messaging by Culver.

I'm neither surprised nor concerned by an early poll showing Culver narrowly trailing Branstad.  And I don't buy another previous poll or two that showed Branstad beating Culver by a big margin--that's not realistic as an evaluation of the current race, not any more than an old spring poll that showed Castle beating Beau Biden by 21 in DE-Sen.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Sun Oct 18, 2009 at 23:21:07 PM UTC

Voters

have a very short memory. A good example from my good ole state of California: Gray Davis was universally hated when the recall occurred, now people look back and with the fiasco happening in Sacramento they say "Davis wasn't that bad."

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

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by: ehstronghold @ Sun Oct 18, 2009 at 23:28:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Dude, Davis wasn't so bad

California had a lot of problems that were out of his control, one major one being Enron, and the retarded conservatives somehow convinced people that he had to be recalled.  It's pretty pathetic.  Now these same people are crying over our terminator of a governor.  Guess what, you broke it, you bought it.

This is exactly the reason why a dem will win, no matter who it is.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

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by: daman09 @ Sun Oct 18, 2009 at 23:38:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hopefully

happy times will be back when Jerry Brown defeats Meg Whitman and reclaims the governor's mansion.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

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by: ehstronghold @ Mon Oct 19, 2009 at 02:15:59 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I can't wait.

Though of course taking back the governor's mansion is only one step to restoring sanity. We also have to get rid of the ridiculous 2/3 rule in the legislature for taxes and budgets. Though I heard that that is being worked on also.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

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by: californianintexas @ Mon Oct 19, 2009 at 02:51:24 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Christie plans to make the 2/3 rule if he wins also

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by: jmartin4s @ Mon Oct 19, 2009 at 03:56:55 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm actually unsure of whether I support that or not.

It would lead to obstructionism, sure, but the New Jersey Legislature has levied such a shocking number of new taxes in addition to their tax hikes in recent years that I'm thinking a 2/3 rule might not be such a bad idea.

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by: NJCentrist @ Mon Oct 19, 2009 at 12:06:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Don't even think it's a good idea

It's the main reason why California is in the shitter.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

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by: daman09 @ Mon Oct 19, 2009 at 17:13:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

If it wasn't a bad idea

then more than 3 states (California, Arkansas, Rhode Island) would have the 2/3 rule.

My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

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by: californianintexas @ Tue Oct 20, 2009 at 05:11:58 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sure they do...

But would any of them vote for Davis in 2010?

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by: colbycakes @ Mon Oct 19, 2009 at 17:45:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

If Branstad

is only winning by 5 we are in very good shape. His negatives still haven't been exposed. If this is honestly where we are at right now I'm confident that Culver will be re-elected.

Also, I really hope Vilsack runs. Grassley is not only an annoying twit, he's also terrible on healthcare and a denier of climate change. Out of all the Republican incumbents that we have a viable chance at in 2010 Grassley is the one I'd love to defeat the most with Vitter only losing narrowly due to the reactionary nature of his Democratic opponent (who I still want to win, but I won't ever be exited by).

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by: Populista @ Mon Oct 19, 2009 at 00:09:21 AM UTC

even if Culver's behind by a bit more now

He can easily come back. I believe Branstad is at his high-water mark now.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Mon Oct 19, 2009 at 00:25:39 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Culver: victim of his own strong position

Branstad was never thinking about getting back into politics until the serious recruitment effort started this spring/summer. If the Republican heavy-hitters thought anyone on their bench had the slightest chance of beating Culver, no one would have recruited Branstad.

So ironically, Culver might have been better off if polls had made him out to be a bit more vulnerable in the spring. The the GOP establishment might have been deluded into thinking they could beat him with Vander Plaats and Rants.

The Republican bench in Iowa is phenomenally weak. Branstad was quite mediocre as governor, as shown by the fact that he almost lost his own party's primary to Fred Grandy in 1994. I still have not heard of any precedent for a three-term incumbent governor nearly losing his own party's primary in the absence of some personal scandal. Usually the whole party establishment gets behind an incumbent when there is a primary challenger, but lots of Republican officials backed Grandy in 1994. That's how incompetent Branstad was.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Mon Oct 19, 2009 at 00:30:28 AM UTC

I don't think that's true

Republicans in Iowa knew two things: 1) Vander Platts cannot win a gubernatorial election, and 2) none of the current candidates could get past Vander Platts in a primary.  They were stuck in a double bind that only Branstad could get them out of.  I don't think it has anything to do with where Culver was polling -- they were always going to throw this hail mary pass.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

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by: Nonpartisan @ Mon Oct 19, 2009 at 01:33:17 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Reminiscent of FL-Sen in 2006

with Katherine Harris.  No one would beat her in a primary, no one thought she'd have a shot in hell in the general, because she didn't.

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by: Andrew @ Mon Oct 19, 2009 at 02:36:25 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Is there any shot that Branstad won't clear the primary?

A bloody primary between Branstad and Vander Plaats would be exactly what Culver needs.

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by: mkpowers @ Mon Oct 19, 2009 at 04:55:31 AM UTC

Sadly I doubt it.

I think Branstad has the primary in the bag.  It will be nice to see Vander Plaats and probably others trying to torpedo him though.  

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

23, Democrat, IA-2

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by: ModerateIADem @ Mon Oct 19, 2009 at 05:45:55 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

it will be a bloody primary

I don't see any realistic chance of Branstad losing, but the shine will come off for sure.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Mon Oct 19, 2009 at 15:02:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

All republicans have risk of lose. Very interesting.

These polls are bad for Grassley and Branstad.  

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by: abgin @ Mon Oct 19, 2009 at 06:00:10 AM UTC

I just noticed this

Grassley: 51%
Vilsack: 40%
Undecided: 11%

102%?

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by: mkpowers @ Mon Oct 19, 2009 at 06:17:54 AM UTC

Rounding errors?

I assume that's probably it.

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by: NJCentrist @ Mon Oct 19, 2009 at 12:07:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not "rounding errors," just rounding......

This happens all the time with rounding.  Add up 33.6 plus 33.6 plus 32.8, and you get 100.  But round off each one and add them up, and you get 101.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Mon Oct 19, 2009 at 14:26:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's what I meant

I used the wrong words; my mistake.

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by: NJCentrist @ Mon Oct 19, 2009 at 16:13:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Typo?

If you click the link to the poll it says 9 undecided.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

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by: sapelcovits @ Mon Oct 19, 2009 at 13:28:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]