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SSP Daily Digest: 10/7

by: Crisitunity

Wed Oct 07, 2009 at 2:54 PM EDT


• DE-Sen: Here's an ominous possibility: it's been taken on faith that Beau Biden will still run for the Senate even with Mike Castle's entry... but what if he doesn't? The rumor mill is suddenly wondering if Biden has developed cold feet, especially keeping in mind that he's only 40 and can pretty much waltz into the job in four years, rather running the risk of damaging his brand by losing an election in 2010.

• FL-Sen: Former Miami mayor Maurice Ferre, who just re-appeared on the scene this week, has already moved quickly to get into the race, announcing his candidacy for the Democratic nod today. Ferre is 74, a bit old to be launching a Senate bid, but he should have a lot of appeal in the Hispanic communities (although it's worth noting he's not Cuban, but Puerto Rican). On the other side of the aisle, Republican underdog Marco Rubio seems on the precipice of a big score that will help him tap into a nationwide base of donors (although his recent fundraising numbers suggests he's already gone nationwide): the Club for Growth is feeling sufficiently confident to get involved on his behalf.

• NV-Sen: I've lost count of who's in the lead, Mark Sanford or John Ensign, in terms of how many times he's had to tell the press that he won't resign. Anyway, it was Ensign's turn again yesterday, as he faces a ramped-up Senate Ethics investigation.

• VT-Sen: A primary challenge to Pat Leahy from the left? This seems unlikely to go anywhere, but Daniel Frielich, a military doctor from Wilmington, VT, will announce his candidacy today. His bid seems to focus mostly on health care (he's a single-payer backer and not a fan of the Dems' watered-down approach).

• OR-Gov: Couple minor tidbits from the Beaver State: one, Steve Novick (who fared well in the 2008 Dem Senate primary) had been occasionally rumored to be interested in running for Governor, but makes his Shermanesque 'no' statement in a Blue Oregon piece detailing his road map for the next guv. Also, as Republicans cast about for a palatable candidate, the fickle finger is now pointing at state Sen. Frank Morse, who says he may get in. Morse has a moderate or at least pleasant reputation within the Senate, but has no statewide profile.

• VA-Gov: Reading between the lines, it sounds like Creigh Deeds might be looking for excuses for his increasingly probable defeat in November. He blames some of his travails on the "spending" and "noise coming out of Washington D.C."

• FL-08: With Orange County Mayor Rich Crotty out, former state Sen. Daniel Webster is still a maybe (although his registering "danielwebsterforcongress.com" may tip his hand). Regardless of what Webster is doing, at least one other Republican is wading into the fray: wealthy businessman Jerry Pierce, who says he'll run with or without GOP backing. (Pierce has given $15K to the Club for Growth over the last decade, so maybe he's hoping they'll return the favor.)

• NH-02: Jennifer Horn, who lost to Rep. Paul Hodes in 2008, isn't getting out of the way for ex-Rep. Charlie Bass's possible comeback. Horn is expected to publicly announce her candidacy today.

• VA-05: As had been expected, state Sen. Rob Hurt filed his paperwork yesterday to run against Rep. Tom Perriello in the 5th. Hurt is from near Danville at the district's south end, setting up a battle of the regional bases with the Charlottesville-based Perriello.

• Mayors: Here's an ignominious end of the road for three-term Albuquerque mayor Martin Chavez (who, Bloomberg-style, overturned a term limits ordinance in order to run again): he got bounced from office in a primary. Somewhat surprisingly, Republican state Rep. Richard Berry cleared the 40% mark in the three-way primary, which means that he wins without the trouble of a general election. Berry got 44% to Chavez's 35% and 21% for Democratic state Sen. Richard Romero. (UPDATE: This technically was a general election, not a primary, under local law; had no one broken 40%, the top-two November election would have been considered a runoff.)

• NRCC: The NRCC announced which five of its Patriots (the vulnerable incumbents, akin to the Dems' Frontline program) will get the first infusion of cash. The beneficiaries are Mary Bono Mack, Charlie Dent, Pat Tiberi, Lee Terry, and Tom Rooney, all of whom have drawn high-profile challengers.
Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 10/7
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SSP Daily Digest: 10/7 | 88 comments
As far as Biden goes,
one suspects that the White House will have some say in this, because if he runs and loses, it'll be a black eye for the Administration.  By the same token, I don't think they can really afford to lose one of the more liberal-leaning Senate seats either, so that might weigh on them going full-court-press to win.
Biden's Senate race would
for sure be seen as a proxy for the White House by the MSM and conservative campaign donors nationwide.

But I really doubt the WH of all places would be thinking Beau should hold off this time.
After all, 2½ years ago most people were thinking that the junior Senator from IL should hold off for a few years to get more experience and seasoning in office before jumping into a Presidential contest. The guy proved them wrong.

And if Biden should wind up losing against Castle, would the loss really be held against Beau for future potential races (considering the strong opponent, and assuming no stupid campaign blunders)?.

[ Parent ]
true...
If Beau Biden doesn't run they he is a complete spineless pussy. Any popular Democrat who is so chicken shit that they wont run in an open seat race in a very Liberal state, against a Conservative should go take off their diapers.
[ Parent ]
Who runs if he doesnt?
Who would run if he didnt? I know Dems have all the statewide offices, would any of them run? Or would a state senator, mayor, or someone else run? There has been talk of John Carney, but I don't think he would run, and he wouldn't want to look like he wants to only run against Mike Castle.
[ Parent ]
Carney's already declared for DE-AL.
It's part of the reason why there was so much talk of Castle retiring/changing races in the first place.  
[ Parent ]
I know
But many people here have been speculating that he would run for Senate if Beau didn't run
[ Parent ]
If Biden doesn't run
if anything, the White House would look like a bunch of sniveling, spineless cowards.

There is no shame in losing.  There is massive shame in engineering a goofball placeholder and then the heir apparent peeing in his pants when the obvious opponent chooses to run!

If Biden doesn't run now, he's a pathetic punk.  "ooo i'm so scared of the 71 year old guy."  

The next "turn" goes to carney, and Biden never gets a turn again, ever.

Not running would be the most pathetic act of this cycle.  

[ Parent ]
heh
What about Cuomo?
[ Parent ]
my father taught me
that when the pie is being passed around, that's the time to take a slice. Beau Biden should run this cycle if he wants this seat. For all we know Castle could decide to run for re-election in 2014--lots of aging senators on the hill. He shouldn't count on being able to waltz into anything.

PPP thinks Castle's current advantage is mainly name recognition.

[ Parent ]
Not exactly
Not likely, Castle has relatively shaky health and has not sounded absolutely enthused about running or staying in politics. This is likely the good ending note on his career.

And the rumors have been that Tom Carper is having health problems and will retire in 2012, (at least some staffers in Delaware whispered that a few weeks ago), and that Carney is just setting himself to run for that open seat rather than run in a primary against Biden.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Interesting.
Carney's move seems a lot more logical now. It seemed a little odd to me that a guy as high-profile as he is would be content with DE-AL. If he's just using it to tread water for a couple of years until Carper's seat opens up, that makes a whole lot of sense.

Frankly, I wasn't expecting Carper to bail, but it's welcome news if it's true. That guy's one of the worst in the caucus and we're not getting rid of him any other way if his 70% in 2006 is any indication.  

[ Parent ]
Well that was the argument
That he wouldn't run now. 71 is old for a first term but once he actually got there he would be the standard age of people running for another term. Besides, the Obama agenda is too important just to piss away this seat. The White House has this covered guaranteed. I don't care how well Joe and Castle get on - the VP doesn't want a Repub in his seat.
[ Parent ]
i agree that castle might decide to stay
how many terms has sen byrd in failing health?

beau biden had better beat the living shit out of castle, win-or-lose, then he can either take the seat in '10 or waltz in in '14.

castle is taking a big gamble here.  he could ride off into the sunset, but instead he runs about a 50% chance of losing and being humiliated - for what - to be the 41st GOP senator?

[ Parent ]
if Biden wasn't 100% sure that we was going to run
no matter what, why the hell was a placeholder nominated to succeed Joe?  
Because ten months ago
it looked like 2010 would be good for Democrats.  
[ Parent ]
And because people said he had to earn it

[ Parent ]
you think it's okay to put a senate seat at risk
just so that beau can have the choice about whether to run or not?
[ Parent ]
The Horror!
Who ever heard of letting someone decide if they want to run for office or not!?  
[ Parent ]
you don't get it
kauffman was selected as a placeholder so that beau biden could run in 2010.  now biden is having second thoughts about running.  if he doesn't, the GOP picks up the seat (as i'm sure you're aware).  if carney or some other non-placeholder had been selected, the seat would be blue indefinitely.  the seat was put at risk basically as a favor to beau biden.  if he doesn't run, he's a total douche.
[ Parent ]
GOPVOTER
The people here are correct about this.  If there was a strong D incumbent in this seat, Castle would not even have considered running.  He is only running because it is an open seat.  The Ds put this seat on hold for the Biden family and now it is coming back to bite them.  The Ds never believed, and I did not either, that Castle would run.  Now Biden may be scared out of the race and they lose the seat.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
[ Parent ]
Agreed
But I would that add many people here were fine with it because of nepotism fears. Payback is a total bitch sometimes.
[ Parent ]
If Carney jumped
Wonder what Biden would do if someone like John Carney or another strong Democrat jumped into the senate race and decided to go after Castle?
[ Parent ]
But why would Carney jump?

[ Parent ]
Because Carney aint no pussy?
Carney was willing to go against Castle as an incumbent when he could of been elected/reelected easily. Castle already ran from Carney once.
[ Parent ]
Doubtful Carney would
The House election will be a breeze and a guaranteed seat for as long as he wants it.  Plus, he'd have an inside track to the Senate when Carper retires in 2018 (my guess is he runs again in 2012) or the Governorship in 2016 so I doubt he'd want to throw that away for a tougher election against Castle.  There aren't that many other "strong" Democrats in the state either that could legitimately give Castle a run for his money besides Carney or Biden: Jack Markell just got elected Governor, Lt. Governor Matt Denn is more interested in the Governor's Mansion in 2016 and has no interest leaving Dover, and Wilmington Mayor James Baker is too polarizing.  The only top-shelf Democrat I could see in the race would be New Castle County Exec. Chris Coons, as he has signaled interest in running for the House against Carney in the primary.

But even if one of those got in the race against Castle, my guess is Beau would opt for the House and would be "Biden" his time until a Senate seat got open again (sorry, I couldn't resist the pun).

[ Parent ]
wouldn't it make more sense for coons to run for senate where the primary's empty
if beau defers?  it's a hard race either way.  either in the primary for the house against carney, or the general election against castle, and the senate's a better prize.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
A placeholder was put in to make it fair
and not give biden or Carney incumbency. People need to quit bitching, it was a good move. It meant Carney would not have the advantage of incumbency and Biden wasn't handed the Senate Seat.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Oh please stop it with the fantasy talk
Come back to Earth.

The placeholder is there for Biden, period.  

[ Parent ]
So its fantasy talk?
To note that a placeholder solved the problem by making both possible candidates start off having to run in a primary with neither having the advantages of incumbency? Or is actually ignorance of some common sense compromise to suggest otherwise?

I dunno. I'll let you actually present an argument to the contrary before I decide.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Fantasy
In that you can't afford to play games like that when you have the chance to lock up the seat. This isn't pattycake. Too important to risk a seat like this.
[ Parent ]
Looks like we took a right turn at Albuquerque . . .
Chavez's greed has led to a Republican mayor. Stupid, stupid, stupid. On the up side, Chavez won't be around any more to screw with Dem party politics.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
I knew I shoulda taken a right toyn at Albukoyke
That's a Bugs Bunny reference, isn't it? From the episode that takes place in Antarctica.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
I've heard
Bugs say that line in many episodes. A couple I remember was when he found himself in the middle of a bullfight and when he ended up in a cave with hidden treasure with Daffy.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Chavez hopefully has one last piece of legislation to push
for the citizens of Albuquerque, require that one needs to win 50%+1 in the primary to win the mayoral seat because that is some fucked up bullshit.

Who would come up with such a stupid law that you can skip a general election if you win big enough in a primary, that is NOT how our electoral system is supposed to work.

It's not really a primary
Albuquerque has non-partisan elections (though it's usually pretty clear who the Democrats are and who the Republicans are) in which the top two vote getters (assuming no one gets at least 40% of the vote) go to a run-off. In 2005, the top two were Chavez and Griegos (who ran to the left of Chavez) but Chavez won 42%-43% (something like that) and avoided a runoff against him.

With all that being said, I agree, I hope that the council ups the required number to 50%+1, the logic behind that run off rule is just ridiculous.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
That makes a bit more sense
as the election is nonpartisan.

Obviously not enough sense to be democracy in my opinion but it certainly makes a lot more sense that the dems of Albuquerque would allow such an election law.

This is the first time something like this has happened, the Republican winning because of such an absurd law?

[ Parent ]
The Democrats have held the Mayorship since the late 80s
And trying to find any information on any past elections is really hard, so I couldn't say.

You should also keep in mind that Albuquerque had a huge growth in population in the last 50-60 years, and there are plenty of our laws which simply haven't caught up with that fact.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
We have high profile challengers to Tiberi and Lee Terry?
I missed it.

It's too bad we waited so long on Tiberi.  Challenges would have been easier in 06 and 08 than they will be in 10.  Hopefully we can soften him up and drain his account in 10, and then make a hard run at him in 12 when the president is being re-elected.

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08

IIRC
Terry has a state senator and Tiberi has a Franklin County-wide elected woman running against him.
[ Parent ]
We had a good candidate against Tiberi in '06
And an excellent one against Terry in '08.  Both got pasted, Tiberi's challenger by double digits.  We didn't fail to pick up those seats for lack of trying -- it's just that they are starting to swing our way in terms of partisan identification.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...
[ Parent ]
Esch didn't get pasted
Terry won in 55-45 in 2006 and 52-48 last year. I don't think Bob Shamansky was that good a candiate to be honest and Tiberi did win by a smaller margin in 2008 verus 2006 (55-42 to 58-42) but maybe we can put that down to Obama.
[ Parent ]
You're right about Esch
I didn't realize he came that close in 2008.  Shamansky wasn't a fantastic candidate, but what made him above average was the fact that he had a lot of money and was willing to spend a large amount of it on the campaign.  For a while Tiberi was legimately scared, though he ultimately won very comfortably.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...
[ Parent ]
Wasn't Shamansky like 78 years old?
And had served a term in Congress... in the early 80s?

He was better than whomever Tiberi had faced before, sure, but was he a better-than-average challenger for the 06 cycle?  I wouldn't say that.

Anyway, evidently his challenger this cycle is better, which is good news.

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08

[ Parent ]
Ferre could be a problem...
...especially since all of the few FL-Sen-Dem Primary polls have shown the vast majority of voters in the undecided column. If Corrine Brown jumps in (my understanding is her exploratory run is very much serious, but she probably won't reach her set fundraising goal), the race will become a complete mess. There's Kevin Burns too, who could do very well among SE liberals.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
I honestly don't think it matters
Crist will beat whoever and even if Rubio somehow pulls it out the giantkiller status would make him formidable too.
[ Parent ]
Agreed.
Though even if Rubio wins (and I think he will), it'll be as much the fact that Meek is a fairly lackluster candidate as the giantkiller status. It's a bad combination for our team. I've pretty much written this seat off either way, and my main concern is only that this race doesn't complicate what should be (but won't be) a fairly easy pickup of FL-Gov for Alex Sink.  
[ Parent ]
"Increasingly probable defeat"?
Are we really that sure of the outcome? People were writing off Deeds a month out from the primary and he ended up running away with the thing. No one seems to be able to agree on the size of McDonnell's lead, so why are we taking it as a given that the guy's more or less unstoppable? Can we not just see a little bit more polling data in the last few weeks of the campaign before deciding that all is lost?

Male, 23, DC-At Large
Washington Post to the rescue again?

[ Parent ]
McDonnell and Deeds--Fighting Over 4%
Regardless of the outcome, they're both gonna get at least 48% of the vote.  They're fighting over that 4% swing right now. It'll be interesting to see if Deeds' reboot of his campaign in the home stretch--insofar as focusing on state issues and keeping the national debates at arm's length--will help him get over the 50% mark.

It remains to be seen.

The Washington Post poll from mid-September seemed to capture this race best with McDonnell at 51% and Deeds at 47%.

I'll wait for another poll from the Post before giving up hope for Deeds because it knows Virginia better than most other outlets.

[ Parent ]
Thesis
That was when the thesis was still the big issue. People have started ignoring that
[ Parent ]
WSJ: Obama may not stump for Deeds
http://online.wsj.com/article/...

I'm starting to suspect McDonnell beats Deeds by high single-digits.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
SurveyUSA Has Shown Inflated Nos. for McDonnell
Sure.

But with the exception of SurveyUSA, McDonnell hasn't shown numbers greater than 51%.

Deeds needs to seal the deal with his platform. The thesis flap would have been a good time to refocus attention on the Deeds campaign. Instead, it was another missed opportunity.

We'll see if NoVA takes to Deeds in the coming weeks.

[ Parent ]
VA
If we lose then we can blame it on a bad candidate.  McDonnell has just done a better job at campaigning.  Deeds has been a disaster.
[ Parent ]
Better him than Moran or McAuliffe
They wouldn't even have made it a single-digit race.
[ Parent ]
I disagree
Deeds' campaign has been an absolute disaster. I dont know about Moran but McAuliffe would have ran a much better campaign than Deeds. Anyone who could go from being 6 points ahead in a rasmussen poll to trailing by double digits shows extreme weakness. Deeds' problem is that he is isolating NOVA and thus will not get the turnout there needed to carry the state. The "Deeds Country" idea can be described as an epic fail. If Deeds looses in November I hope that will be the end of Deeds' political career in VA politics.
[ Parent ]
McAuliffe had money, and that was it
He came off like a slimy used car salesman, which is why he crashed and burned in the primary despite spending more than Deeds and Moran combined. There's no way that Virginia voters would have warmed to him.

That said, if Deeds loses this he's done in Virginia. Unless he runs against Bob Goodlatte (which would be ridiculously difficult), he's never leaving the State Senate. This election is killing a lot of Democrats' careers; I wouldn't expect hearing anything more from Deeds, Moran, Wagner, or Shannon after November.

[ Parent ]
Nah, Deeds was the best choice
Frankly, Bob McDonnell has just run a gangbusters campaign. I feel like the vast majority of politicians couldn't weather a scandal as hefty as thesis-gate half as well as he's managed.

In terms of the Dem candidates, Terry McAuliffe would've done a terrific job shoring up liberals and African-Americans and likely wouldn't have been able to break 45% in the end. He was decidedly NOT the go-to guy in terms of reaching out to Independents. Brian Moran was similar in terms of ideology, and his local status (as in, the contrary to McAuliffe's national fame) perhaps would've given up more a leg-up than McAuliffe, but unlike McAuliffe, we don't know if he could've run a strong campaign.

Ultimately, Creigh Deeds was the only one of the three who looked poised to be competitive among Independents, whilst keeping conservative Dems firmly in line. And, ultimately, he's going to lose by double-digits among the former, and may bleed 15-20% of Dems.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
All things considered,
we can probably be glad that McDonnell decided to run for Governor instead of Senate. With apologies to those in VA, I'd rather the damage he does is confined to a single state rather than spread through Senate votes at the Federal level. Neither Webb nor Warner has been particularly fantastic so far, but Webb is still a 200% improvement over Mr. Macaca, and even HE thinks McDonnell is a nutjob. At least VA's weird gubernatorial term limits limit McDonnell to a single term same as everyone else, and the only higher office available in 2014 will be Senate - and not even McDonnell can beat Mark Warner, especially with Warner as the incumbent.
[ Parent ]
Sounds like
you're trying to sugarcoat a potential loss here. I'm not content with McDonnell's winning this race.

I think this race has implications for 2012, and potentially 2016. If Deeds can come back and win it frees up Obama to select Mark Warner as his V-P in 2012. With a Gov. McDonnell, that possibility probably goes by the wayside.

And of course if Warner won the Vice-Presidency in 2012 he'd have a huge leg up to be the Democratic nominee for president in 2016. I think Warner knows this race affects him directly, and that's why you've seen him campaign for Deeds recently.

Can I be the first to predict that if Deeds wins next month Mark Warner will be running at the top of the ticket with Barack Obama in 2012, and will then be the Democratic nominee for president in 2016?

I'm still hoping for a comeback by Deeds.  

[ Parent ]
I don't see why he would do that
VP is not a viable stepping stone to the Presidency. George H. W. Bush is the only sitting VP to be elected President since Martin Van Buren. He would be better served by staying in the Senate and building foreign policy credentials until 2016.
[ Parent ]
Don't forget about Al Gore
If Warner were still governor I may agree with your statement. But Barack Obama's feat notwithstanding, it's still hard to get elected president while serving as a senator.

I'm anticipating Obama leaving office with high approval ratings and perceived as having been one of the better Democratic presidents who's served in the White House.

In that case, I think it would be better for Warner to have been paired with Obama. As long as Obama is relatively popular, one would think that Warner would be helped more by receiving an endorsement from Obama for the 2016 race rather than having to go without the president's support during the primary season.

If Obama doesn't campaign for Deeds, hopefully Warner can help push him over the top.  

[ Parent ]
Rick Boucher would probably have crushed McDonnell
but then he'd be giving up being the 10th most powerful person in the house. Jody Wagner or Shannon would have also been better matches against McDonnell.
[ Parent ]
Crisitunity, you should correct the Albuquerque mayoral description
This wasn't like what Louisiana used to do (where there was a "primary" where all Democrats and Republicans just ran against each other and the two biggest vote getters went to a run off), rather this was a general election (Albuquerque city elections are nonpartisan, so there are no primaries)

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

OK, thanks
I added a sentence.
[ Parent ]
MA-Sen: Coakley ahead 47% to 12%
Coakley Holds Big Lead in Massachusetts
In a four-way race, Coakley leads with 47%, followed by Michael Capuano at 12%, Stephen Pagliuca at 4% and Alan Khazei at 1%.

That is an internal poll
But it's consistent with other polling on the race.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
NY-23: Scozzafava get's NRA endorsment
http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

Hopefully this will remind some Democrats that she's actually a Republican.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


Me = Democrat + NRA Member
but I'm still pulling for Owens.

I'm not sure the NRA endorsement will hurt her up there.  

[ Parent ]
The NRA enforcement will probably help her
Though it may anger some of the liberals (outside the district) who've been singing her praises.  I have the feeling they are the type who would get the most angry over the NRA.  I didn't mean to suggest Democrats aren't in the NRA.    

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
You know
That would have been me until the last few years (don't worry, I'm still somewhat young, so I'm...maturing).  Now, I see guns as a regional matter.  I don't hunt and it's been way too long since I hit one of Colorado's great fishing holes, but I can respect those who do, especially for food.  So, I can see the culture in the North Country, in the rural Upper Midwest, and in a lot of other areas being gun-friendly even when I'm not...and that's okay.  But the minute somebody suggests urban Denver relax it's gun laws...them's fightin' words.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
That's pretty much me too
I support making it harder for people with dubious backgrounds from getting guns, a stance I'm sure many Republicans support too.

Interestingly, guns haven't really been much of an issue this year.  Despite the series of shootings in the first half of 2009 there really hasn't been much talk of guns by either side.  This endorsement will probably help Scozzafava win over some of Hoffman's supporters, but with there no apparent threat from Obama to gun owners I'm not sure if it'll matter much to swing voters.    

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Or most Dems
On top of that, if I'm at at all representative of the populace at all or even the readership here (something I doubt), the mixed gun control stance is really my only moderate issue.  I don't think it breaks ideologically really.  I mean, some of my House heroes are guys like Jim McDermott, the late Stephanie Tubbs Jones, Kucinich (don't ask...I actually like iconoclastic figures like him, despite the fact he needs a better PR style), Barbara Lee, Pete Stark, Lynn Woolsey, John Conyers and other liberal stalwarts.  And I'm damn sad to see Charlie Rangel take such a fall as he had...I genuinely liked the guy. So...I'm actually well on the left of SSP readership, though my contract with DK is limited because of tone and vitriol issues, though not ideology.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
Forgot a couple
Just in case she reads Swing State, I forgot to give a proper shout out to Tammy Baldwin, too.  And Barney Frank, 'cause he can outwonk and outprocedure pretty much anybody.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
Mary Bono Mack
NRCC says she's vulnerable, so please let this be the year that someone finally takes out Mary Bono Mack.

She represents the Palm Springs metro, one of the gayest cities in one of the gayest states in the entire US and she voted with Republicans to try and strip the repeal of Don't Ask Don't Tell out of the defense reauthorization bill. Like, seriously, Mary? A repeal of DADT even has majority support among Republicans. Ugh.

Full disclosure: I'm not affiliated at all with any campaigns, I've just met her and I simply do not care for her. At all.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

Khazei
I'd like to seen Alan Khazei gain some more traction in the Massachusetts race, but that probably won't happen in such a short time span.  The more I read about him the more he impresses me though.  

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

23, Democrat, IA-2

NY-29
Time for some unfounded speculation... What do you think this announcement is about?

http://openleft.com/diary/1542...

diary at Albany Project on Massa's upcoming announcement, too
NY-29: Massa's Cryptic E-Mail: Is He Considering Not Running In 2010?
The comments seemed to be about evenly divided on what's going on.
[ Parent ]
He may just be trying to get some free publicity for his campaign kick-off
Question for the historically minded: in recent memory has a freshman Comgressman retired after one term (as opposed to running for something else or losing a primary). Maybe someone who gets redistricted somewhere very unfavorable, but that's the only case I could imagine.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Ancient history but
Abe Lincoln did just that.  He had an agreement that he would serve one term and another Whig would get the seat.  He didn't run for the Senate for about 10 years.

I suspect it was common in the 1800s.  Or at least more common.

The recent ones either lost a primary or served a longer period or had a scandal.  Or lost in the general election.  Least as far as I can remember.

[ Parent ]
If I remember right, three guys including Lincoln agreed to one term in the seat
I'd imagine in the days when the Governor could fill vacant House seats with an appointment this was fairly common.  But these days when it takes so much of an effort to win a seat I can't imagine someone stepping aside unless s/he was absolutely certain s/ he couldn't win or public service was just not for them.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Interesting, but it seems like building hype to me.
Regarding potential retirements: John Linder (R-GA-07) has raised only just over $44,000 this cycle, and that's through the most recent quarter.  Granted, he has a lot of cash on hand, but that's interesting.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Additionally,
He's raised over $500k this cycle.  That doesn't sound like someone wanting to retire.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
I doubt it
He wouldn't have a press conference to announce his retirement. Now, a run for Governor or Senate is possible
[ Parent ]
The only part about this that raises any question in my mind...
... is the last line about how it has been an honor and a pleasure to serve his constituents.

Otherwise, we have to ask ourselves: why would a freshman congressman who's been fund raising like a maniac and holding dozens of town meetings hold a major rally on 10/10 at 10:00 to announce that he's not running for re-election?

Male, 23, DC-At Large

[ Parent ]
Yeah, you don't choose 10/10 to withdraw
Probably just announcing reelection, but it would be interesting to see someone finally have the backbone to announce against Patterson (even if that is wildly improbable).
[ Parent ]
Yeah at 10am
For 2010.
[ Parent ]
What sucks the most about SUSA being a media pollster
is that they often have to sit on results for days.
Particularly since
They often don't report them properly.
[ Parent ]
SSP Daily Digest: 10/7 | 88 comments

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