"Likely" rating

I think that very few of the "likely" rated races will actually become competitive. Note that Souder and Young are on the list; do you really expect either one to lose to a Democrat? I certainly don't. But I suppose it would take less than a total lightning bolt for that to happen. I guess the same may be true of Boswell, because he's a lackluster candidate in a somewhat closely-divided district. And it is indeed possible that Congress will fail to pass meaningful health reform and that the economy sucks come election time. Or perhaps the opposite. We Democrats had better hope things have turned around quite a bit more by that time.

By the way, arguably the worst rating on Sabato's list is for Cao. That should be rated Likely Democrat, not Leaning, don't you think?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Fri Sep 11, 2009 at 04:23:03 AM UTC

Boswell (and Cao)

Since Iowa is supposed to lose a House seat in 2012 due to re-districting, no top tier Republican is likely to run against Boswell in 2010.  The theory is that Boswell and Latham will face off in 2012 with Boswell the likely goner.  A strong challenger would be renting the seat for two years before taking on Latham in a primary.  I don't see any strong challenge in any Iowa district likely because of the fact that the districts will change dramatically to fit a four seat (rather than five) map.

Cao is shown as in a Likely Democratic district on the chart.  This is the only one of its kind and should be presented in a separate category of likely to turn.  The closest parallel was Dan Rosternkowski's seat in Illinois.  It turned in a scandal in 1994 and turned right back in 1996.

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by: David Kowalski @ Fri Sep 11, 2009 at 04:55:49 AM UTC

I agree on all counts

I would also put ID-01 in a "likely to turn" category.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Fri Sep 11, 2009 at 08:45:17 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Iowa and 2012

Hmmm...Iowa does districts by nonpartisan commission I believe.

Any reason why IA-3 and IA-4 are the likeliest to be combined? I could see why, given Boswell's perceived weaknesses, one would think Latham would be more likely to win such a runoff, although I wonder how strongly Republican can any district centered on Des Moines/Polk County really be, (assuming of course that the bulk of western Iowa remains in IA-5.)  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

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by: Answer Guy @ Fri Sep 11, 2009 at 14:26:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

some people think

Latham would be thrown in with King in a redrawn IA-04, but I think most maps would put Story County (where Latham lives in Ames) in the same district as Polk County.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Sat Sep 12, 2009 at 11:22:41 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

That should create

a pretty Democratic seat, no?

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by: Andrew @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 17:46:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Personally,

I generally think Sabato is full of it. I used to read him regularly, back in 2006, but haven't for years - especially not since Nate Silver came along. The problem is, like all Beltway pundits, he's completely risk-averse and can't ever bet on a race until the day before. All of his "predictions" at this point in any cycle are simply hedging, because heaven forbid he should ever be wrong about any race. He's also completely full of himself in a way I don't think is warranted, given that his final predictions are largely accurate precisely because he waits until the last possible minute to make them. So he holds a pundit record for accuracy, so what? Most people on this site can beat or tie his "score". And, of course, he tends to ignore the grassroots of both parties as inferior, just like everyone else in the Beltway - which is why certain races such as NH-01 in 2006 weren't on his radar at all.

Really, the main reason I don't like him is he allows his students to put unprofessional jokes on his website at the expense of certain states, then ignores email calling him out on it. (This is a reference to his commenting on VT-Sen 2006 with "Why is Vermont running a socialist for Senate in 2006? Because no communist was available!") Once again, it's a cheap shot at an easy state to make fun of that's already unpopular inside the Beltway. I'm sure if someone had made a similar joke equating Virginians with hillbillies, he'd have been offended.

Sabato is a coward.  

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by: notanothersonofabush @ Fri Sep 11, 2009 at 12:25:19 PM UTC

Strangely Rothenburg is making the most sense

http://rothenbergpoliticalrepo...

Covering all bases seems the most sensible course of action. I would add that he did the best in his predictions last year.

Though Sabato nailed it in 2006 he was all over the place in picking the winners of individual races. I do find it strange that he is talking of between 20-30 when the write-up and the table seems to me to support something like no more than 20 which incidentally is my current prediction.

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by: conspiracy @ Fri Sep 11, 2009 at 13:34:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Rothenberg's commentary is often useless

but out of all the beltway pundits, I find his rankings to be most grounded in reality.

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by: skaje @ Fri Sep 11, 2009 at 17:54:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I've come to the conclusion

Charlie Cook seems a thoroughly decent bloke though. And I'm not just saying that because he posts here! :)

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by: conspiracy @ Fri Sep 11, 2009 at 18:07:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Argh

I've come to the SAME conclusion.

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by: conspiracy @ Fri Sep 11, 2009 at 18:08:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Same here

I personally can't stand Rothenberg's commentary, though his feud with Bowers was entertaining, but his rankings are often on the mark.

Cook, on the other hand, strikes me as the opposite. He's a good commentator, and I give him credit for posting occasionally here. But as a prognosticator, he needs a little polishing.

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by: corran horn @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 14:32:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's cause the CW

is that Dems are going to have an absolutely awful year, when reality says otherwise. If Dems have problems in 2010 it'll be more due to the number of seats they currently have or which incumbents have screwed up the most, and less because the Beltway talking heads want to pretend that Democrats are failing.

Sabato becomes a little more like Joe Klein in every cycle.  

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by: notanothersonofabush @ Fri Sep 11, 2009 at 18:58:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Rothenburg gives a very good overview

The only thing I wonder about is whether he is right that "a noticeable shift in the national mood will almost certainly put more Democratic seats into play over the next six to 12 months." This seems to be the conventional wisdom right now, and he does wisely leave himself some wiggle room. I'm not convinced that'll happen, though. The national mood can shift again.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Fri Sep 11, 2009 at 19:09:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

if we are still losing jobs every month

a year from now, Democrats will lose more than 20 seats in my opinion.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Sat Sep 12, 2009 at 11:23:52 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I agree with you

n/t

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Sat Sep 12, 2009 at 16:25:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

If we are still losing jobs every month a year from now

the midterm electins will be the least of our problems

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by: DTOzone @ Sun Sep 13, 2009 at 01:23:56 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I have long felt

that Larry Sabato is biased toward his own dogmatic axioms.  One of his basic premises is that mid-term elections generally correct in favor of the party not in the presidency, so he skews many of his predictions with that in mind.  I admit that history has often supported this premise, but I don't think that it can be promoted as a hard and fast rule, which Sabato seems to do.  It certainly didn't happen in 2006, and if the health reform package passes this fall and the economy turns upward somewhat by the third quarter next year, it won't happen in 2010.  I also don't believe that he is nearly as politically objective as he lets on to be--he gives the benefit of the doubt to Republican candidates in most cases.  I read and follow Larry's predictions, but they need to be taken with at least one grain of salt.

68, Dem-leaning indie, MI-8

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by: jimmich @ Fri Sep 11, 2009 at 14:54:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Exactly.

Very solid analysis. Uncharacteristically for me, I have nothing to add. Well done.  

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by: notanothersonofabush @ Fri Sep 11, 2009 at 18:59:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sabato Emailing Back

Ive exchanged emails on rare ocassions in the last few years where there were errors that needed correcting, most notably when they claimed former MT Gov Judy Martz was dead.  He actually wanted to fire the student associated with that post, which given all the mistakes found on the net, I told him I thought it was extreme.

With that said, I have found him the last couple of years, like Rothenberg, to be recycling what those in the trenches have known first hand for weeks.  Given the resouces around him, he should update much more often.

As far as handicapping races and calling them up to the wire, I dont have a problem with that, but I do think his most recent (wish) list was wading too far into the recent (forgive me, yes I know where you beautiful campus is) "beltway mentality" that things were irreconcilibly going down the crapper for team blue.  

If anything, his recent list should be a wake up call on the hill as well as to us out in the trenches of what the list could look like if we allow a failure on health care... (and if we cant get a handle on bush's legacy economy) luckily our numbers have rebounded, the President gave a great talk, please dont overplay our hand in 'repromanding' congrASSman Wilson, and lets pass meaningful health care insurance reform with a public option.

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by: inhoc75 @ Sun Sep 13, 2009 at 05:02:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

My favorite Sabato story

Sabato teaches a senior seminar in PoliSci at the University of Virginia. To be admitted to the class, prospective students must first submit an essay, explaining how they could contribute to the class and how it would further them in their career goals.

In 2007, S. R. Siddarth, a UVa student who worked in Jim Webb's U.S. Senate campaign the previous summer, applied for the class.  His essay read, in full, "I am Macaca."

He was admitted.

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by: davybaby @ Fri Sep 11, 2009 at 17:02:30 PM UTC

Macaca

Siddarth is a great man, who I worked with in 04.  Thats an awesome story. Thanks.  Im not sure where he's at now, but he sure as hell should have a job on Webb's staff.

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by: inhoc75 @ Sun Sep 13, 2009 at 05:05:07 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Democratic House Losses

will be ten or less, net, in 2010.  The reason is simple:  the Republican brand is still trash.  For a Democrat to lose, the majority of voters have to vote for the Republican, and there are so many voters who can't stand the thought of doing that.  The most likely Democrats to lose are those who won in 2008 thanks largely to the high turnout, e.g. Periello, Kilroy.  People aren't going to change their vote from Democrat to Republican. Rather, Republicans will be more strongly motivated to vote. Remember also that southerners love incumbents.  That's why Marshall, Barrow, Childers, and Griffith are safe, and Bright will probably win.  

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by: jward373 @ Fri Sep 11, 2009 at 23:21:47 PM UTC

biggest risk is collapse of Dem turnout

in my opinion. The Republican brand isn't going to improve much over the next year.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Sat Sep 12, 2009 at 11:25:10 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't think that's really at risk

Obama can turnout voters like assembly plants can turn out cars. All you need is to send him into some of these districts, at least the ones where he's popular, and turnout is solved...the only place this doesn't work is in areas where he isn't popular and there turnout becomes the problem of the team on the ground, which I'm also not really worried about.

I don't think the right wing is going to be as exciting as everyone thinks they are. If the economy is getting better and things do appear to be improving, they're going to be depressed because their message isn't going to be sellable to independent and swing voters.  

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by: DTOzone @ Sun Sep 13, 2009 at 01:28:24 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not sure if I believe this, but I'm going to throw it out there.

I think there is a chance the Republicans could, for lack of a better term, shoot their load early and have a lot of their anger fizzle by the time November 2010 comes around.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

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by: TheUnknown285 @ Sun Sep 13, 2009 at 09:39:17 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well yes

if the economy improves next year, that will fizzle the anger because the important swing voters will look at them and say "how can you say Obama and the Democrats aren't making our country better?"

Whether or not they are would be irrelevant. I remember 2002, trying to argue to the undecided that the impending war in Iraq is a mistake and the Patriot Act was bad and it just didn't register. These people would say to me "But President Bush is looking out for our safety, so what if we have to spend some money invading Iraq or give up some of our rights?"

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by: DTOzone @ Sun Sep 13, 2009 at 21:34:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's too early to judge that

Maybe sending Obama to the district would boost turnout for the Democrat, maybe not.... We don't know how popular Obama will be in a year, after all. So much about the 2010 elections hinges on when the economy improves.

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by: NJCentrist @ Sun Sep 13, 2009 at 18:22:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

This is true

but in response to the comment about turnout being a problem...if Obama is unpopular in November 2010, turnout isn't a problem, because no matter how good our turnout is, an unpopular President is going to sink us anyway.

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by: DTOzone @ Sun Sep 13, 2009 at 21:31:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It can mitigate the loses though

Charlie Cook was talking about Dems being split into three camps, Purists, Loyalists and Skeptics, the latter being whatever Dems do the tide is too strong against them. As ever a mix of all three is probably the most accurate. Purists are correct that progressives need to be given a bone to GOTV. Loyalists are correct that if the economy starts creatin jobs next year Dem chances will naturally improve. My own personal view is once health care reform passes, sadly without a public option right now, then Dems will get a boost and then attention will move to other issues. I really do think by this time next year people will have to sit up and take notice that the economy is doing pretty well and it was the Dems that saved it from utter disaster. Repubs will probably still pick up House seats in that scenario but such is the pattern with midterms when the other party has the presidency and/or congress and it won't make too much difference if they can break even in senate races.

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by: conspiracy @ Sun Sep 13, 2009 at 21:43:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well the loses

would be from races that Dems won out of pure luck. It's the same scenario Republicans had with Michael Flanagan or Anh Cao. No amount of progressive happiness and turnout can save those seats.

I dunno what seats those are, I'd say Walt Minnick or Frank Kratovil.

I wouldn't be surprised if Dems end up losing 5-15 seats. Obama won 240 districts, that's 17 less than we have now. 17 is a realistic loss that the pundits see as "extravagant."

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by: DTOzone @ Sun Sep 13, 2009 at 21:58:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I currently think about 20 at the most

And that the environment will improve from here on in.

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by: conspiracy @ Sun Sep 13, 2009 at 22:00:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

MD-01/Kratovil

Kratovil's MD-01 is, no doubt about it, a bad district for Democrats, but isn't quite in the same category as ID-01 and Minnick.

Kratovil's the perfect Democrat for the district, in that he's from the Eastern Shore, which leans to the right but seems to like to vote for their own if given a chance, is generally well-liked, and a moderate. His home county, Queen Anne's, where he served as States Attorney, went 60-40 for him while going 60-40 for McCain at the same time. He carried every county on the Shore, and all of those but Kent (by the smallest of margins, and it's the least populous county in MD) went for McCain over Obama.
MD-01 ended up being McCain's best district in the state, even more than the generally-considered-redder MD-06.

It took a perfect storm to get him in there - a divisive, ugly GOP primary, won by Andy Harris, an ultra-conservative state senator from the outer Baltimore suburbs with zero cross-party appeal whose Club For Growth-funded campaign carried the day. Gilchrest would have beaten Kratovil rather easily, and one imagines that E.J. Pipkin, the other major candidate in the GOP race, probably could have held the seat for Team Red too. Gilchrest was bitter enough about it, and about the general direction of the state and national GOP that he endorsed Kratovil too.

As for the Obama effect....Obama boosted black turnout considerably everywhere; this was not as much of an issue in MD-01 since the black population is below the national average there, but every little bit helped and every little bit was needed. (Obama ran 4 points ahead of Kerry '04 in MD-01, the smallest gain of any district in the state.)

It wouldn't take much for the Republicans to win this seat back. Even assuming they can't win the Shore, the Harford, Baltimore County, and Anne Arundel portions of the district are deeply hostile territory for any Democrat. Rumors are that former Governor Ehrlich might be interested; I think he lives in the district now, though it's (mostly) not the same one he used to represent and it doesn't include his original hometown. He'd be the favorite. If E.J. Pipkin - a moderate Republican from the Shore - gets through a primary he'd be a tough foe. Harris supposedly wants another shot, and, unappealing to moderates as he is, maybe he wins in a better year for the GOP.

Despite all this, incumbency counts for something. Plus this is the focus of the election cycle in Maryland for Dems unless a strong challenger to Governor O'Malley emerges.

The stakes are high here for a different reason...this map gets redrawn after 2010. The Democrats drew a map that essentially conceded MD-01 to the GOP (who more or less pissed it away running Harris) by making it as Republican as possible. If Kratovil survives this time, it would not take a lot of effort to create new boundaries that would make him tough to dislodge, by removing the deep-red suburbia north and northeast of Baltimore and shifting around the Anne Arundel portion of the district, including more Dem-friendly places like Annapolis, areas closer to Baltimore, or even parts of PG County.    

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

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by: Answer Guy @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 00:02:22 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

But what is more important

for Kratovil's reelection chances...progressive turnout or swing voters...if it's the latter, then base turnout is moot in this district.  

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by: DTOzone @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 00:42:39 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Nice rundown

Thorough knowledge of districts like this is one reason I love SSP.

That news about Ehrlich is surprising as I thought he was hellbent on a rematch with O'Malley.

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by: corran horn @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 14:34:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Blair Lee on Ehrlich

Blair Lee IV, a right-leaning local columnist despite a Democratic background (Blair Lee III was a Democratic Lt. Gov./Acting Governor in the 1970s; Blair Lee, Sr. was a Democratic U.S. Senator in the 1910s), outlines Ehrlich's options as follows:

(Ehrlich) has five options; don't run (0 percent likelihood), run for Congress in the First or Second Districts (0 percent - been there, done that), run against U.S. Sen. Barbara Mikulski (0 percent - Babs is unbeatable), run against Gov. Martin O'Malley (50 percent - Ali vs. Frazier rematch) or run for state comptroller (50 percent - the most winnable option).

If he thinks he can win, Ehrlich will challenge O'Malley.

...

If Ehrlich wants to stay in Maryland politics he must win in 2010; if he loses, he's washed up. His most winnable option is the comptroller's race.

...

It's a perfect set-up for Ehrlich who can run as the Baltimore area's favorite son against (Comptroller Peter Franchot) the liberal from Takoma Park.

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by: davybaby @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 16:45:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]