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SSP Daily Digest: 9/10

by: Crisitunity

Thu Sep 10, 2009 at 2:35 PM EDT


FL-Sen: Today is the day we say goodbye to Mel Martinez, resigning to... well, he hasn't figured it out yet. Martinez leaves sounding rather downbeat, having been pilloried by much of his party for his work on immigration. And today we say hello to George LeMieux, Charlie Crist's former right-hand man and now body-double in the Senate. Interesting trivia: Kirsten Gillibrand is no longer the youngest Senator; LeMieux is a youthful 40.

MA-Sen: The rumor du jour coming out of the Bay State is that Andy Card, the former Bush White House chief of staff, is interested in the Senate special election for the GOP. Card would be a long-shot (as would any Republican), but would at least come to the race armed with a giant Rolodex full of donors. (Wait... do people even use Rolodexes any more?)

UT-Sen: Is Bob Bennett just ready for retirement, or is he trying to move to the left of the the gaggle of far-right primary challengers, hoping they split the wingnut vote and let him win by occupying all of the quasi-moderate Huntsman-style space in the GOP field? Either way, he took a few provocative actions yesterday, as one of only four GOPers to stand and applaud Barack Obama's call-out of the "death panel" lie last night -- which earned him the spot of Public Enemy #1 at RedState -- and earlier as one of only five GOPers to vote in favor of cloture on the Cass Sunstein nomination, who currently holds the #2 spot on the list that Glenn Beck is holding in his hand.

NY-Gov: This is a weird-ass rumor, but apparently several different sources are telling the Weekly Standard that Hillary Clinton may bag on being Secretary of State in order to run for Governor of New York. Take with... I dunno, is there something much stronger than salt? Meanwhile, Rudy Giuliani was supposed to be in the middle of a power play involving remaking the leadership of the state GOP in preparation for a gubernatorial run, but seems to be losing that proxy battle, as the insufficiently-pro-Rudy Ed Cox still seems on track to take over as state GOP chair.

TN-Gov: Rep. Zach Wamp has an edge in the GOP primary for the open gubernatorial race in Tennessee, according to his own polling, done by the Tarrance Group. Wamp has 22% of the vote, followed by Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey at 15, Shelby Co. DA Bill Gibbons at 14, and Knoxville mayor Bill Haslam at 12. Wamp also led the field with 22 in a poll several months ago from Southern Political Report.

CA-11: There are already a bunch of next-to-no-names running against Jerry McNerney in the R+1 11th, but the GOP has dug up someone who's at least one notch above that: Tony Amador, the former U.S. Marshal for the Eastern District of California under the Bush administration, giving him some sort-of-non-partisan law-and-order cred. Amador was the son of undocumented immigrants -- but does that make him the kind of courageous by-the-bootstraps story that Republicans love, or unacceptable to the GOP's rabid nativist base?

MO-08: Here's an appealing-sounding recruit for the Dems to go against Jo Ann Emerson: college instructor and Army vet Tommy Sowers. He served two tours in Iraq, then taught at West Point, and now teaches at Missouri University of Science and Technology. He'll still have an uphill fight against Emerson, who hasn't drawn tough competition since her initial 1996 election, in this district that actually went for Bill Clinton but has fallen off the cliff lately at R+15.

SC-02: If last night were a movie, the poster would say "Starring Barack Obama, and introducing Joe Wilson!" With one over-the-top line of dialogue, Wilson was catapulted from back-bench anonymity, to front-and-center among one-dimensional cartoonish House Republican villains, right next to Michele Bachmann and Jean Schmidt. While Wilson privately apologized last night, he is refusing today to publicly apologize in the House well, and Democratic House leadership seems eager to let that slide, not wanting to get distracted from the more pressing matter of health care. However, the assault from the netroots has been merciless; Wilson's 2010 opponent, Iraq vet Rob Miller (who came within 8% of Wilson in 2008 in this R+9 district), has hit the fundraising jackpot, raising over $200K since last night according to the DCCC. (Prior to last night, Miller had $49K CoH while Wilson had $212K.) This includes $135K alone at Act Blue (hint hint). UPDATE: PPP teases that they're going into the field tonight to poll SC-02; they're asking for help in drafting the poll, so be sure and give them a hand.

CA-St. Ass.: In case you were under a rock yesterday (or had a particularly aggressive work-safe web-blocker), Republican Mike Duvall resigned immediately from his state Assembly seat in northern Orange County after getting caught on an open microphone talking in lascivious detail about his sexual transactions with a oil-and-gas lobbyist. The resulting special election in AD-72 doesn't seem likely to go to the Dems -- Orange County Supervisor Chris Norby is set to run for the seat -- but it's the least hardcore part of the OC, where John McCain won only 50-47, so it's worth paying some attention. (See californianwonder's diary for more.)

House: Here's a GOP poll that I'm sharing simply because of the sheer irrelevance of its premise: that Nancy Pelosi is the most polarizing House Speaker since Newt Gingrich. Remember that there was exactly one Speaker in between Gingrich and Pelosi. Should it be any surprise that the highly visible Pelosi is considered more polarizing than the shapeless, flavorless DeLay-puppet Dennis Hastert... or that the GOP paid good money to ascertain that?

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 9/10
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Andy Card....heehee....
As the article said, he can raise money. That's about all he's got going for him.

It's an interesting open question as to what extent a strong association with the Bush administration specifically would harm a candidate running for office, one that will be interestingly tested with Rob Portman running for the OH-Sen seat.

I'd have to think being heavily inolved with Dubya would be pretty much a deal killer in a state like Massachusetts. I might even go so far as to say that a theoretical Republican primary opponent (in an election of interest to no one save the small minority of voters registered GOP) should be able to use that association against Card.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03


only thing to fear.....
The only thing for Dems to fear in MA is an indpendent Republican type tapping into the voter anger in the Country and in Mass and running an anti-incumbent anti-establishment throw the bums out tyoe of campaign.

Card can't do this. He is an iside guy tied to Bush.

Only a guy like Curt Schilling running as an independent with GOP backing or Mihos (who was an indpendent and is now a GOPer) with his millions can do this.

Card would be the Dems dream Republican candidate.

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[ Parent ]
Schilling
The latest Rasmussen Reports had something about how Mass voters, by nearly a 2-1 margin (lot of undecideds though and I don't know what their specific methodology was), didn't think Schilling should run. Doesn't sound especially promising for #38.


36, M, Democrat, MD-03

[ Parent ]
Joe Wilson
New Disclosures Show Wilson Deep in Debt
Talk about bad timing.

Jonathan Allen reports newly-amended financial disclosure forms show that Rep. Joe Wilson (R-SC) -- who heckled President Obama last night -- is heavily leveraged and his debts may even exceed his assets. The new filings reveal for the first time hundreds of thousands of dollars in previously unreported loans from federal credit unions and banks.

A Wilson aide did not reply to e-mailed requests for information, and phone lines to Wilson's office were jammed.

Meanwhile, Wilson's Democratic opponent in next year's election has pulled in over $400,000 in new campaign contributions since last night.

So yeah, it looks like the dem will at least have a big cash advantage.  I wonder if it will be enough.



No Wonder
He did that little outburst at Obama last night. Between being in debt, and having four sons in the military as reported by Politico, it's easy to understand why he's a bit hot under the collar. Still, that's no excuse to yell out like a child in the House of Representatives.

[ Parent ]
Wilson is the talk of SC ...
The newspaper websites are overflowing with comments.  MOST OF IT ANTI-wILSON. The local wingnut Talk Radio was abuzz too, but obviously singing Wilson's praises.  

I'm sure Joe Wilson will rake in some dough too, but this is just what Miller needed. Getting $400,000 14 months ahead of the election is HUGE.  That is much better than getting the same amount with one month to go.

First Michael Jackson, then Joe Wilson.  Mark Sanford is one luck man.

 


[ Parent ]
Miller over $600,000 and counting ...
And the 2009 Macaca Award goes to ....

Joe Wilson.

It is actually plausible that all four incumbent GOP congressmen in SC will not return in 2011.

SC-1 -- Henry Brown is has significant primary opposition, barely won in '08 and is beyond retirement age.

SC-2 -- Wilson will get a well-funded, experienced challenger who drew 46% last time.  Plus he has made an idiot of himself.

SC-3 -- Gresham Barrett is already leaving to seek the Governorship

SC-4 -- Bob Inglis faces numerous opponents, at least two of which are capable of knocking him off.  Don't forget this is a runoff state too.

 


[ Parent ]
Miller's total now tops entire 2008 campaign budget
He has raised about $700,000 as of 5:00am EST.  His total raised in 2008 was $632,000.

And of course, Early Money Is Like Yeast!

He hopes to top $1 million by midnight or so today.

 


[ Parent ]
Um... Correct me If I'm wrong...
But wont he have a solid base considering Wilson was a dick to Obama.
And isnt't "unreported loans from banks" taboo?

[ Parent ]
Being a dick
may be popular in that district. The loans sound criminal, though.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
MISC
- Why in the world would Card even waste his time?  He has to know the only Republican who had a shot was MAYBE Romney and even he had an uphill battle.  

- Hillary running for Governor is laughable.  Why in the world would she do that?

- Why did it take so long to get the vote on Cloture for Sunstein if they had the votes?  Why not do this months ago?  Why not do the same for McHugh?

29/D/Male/NY-01


There is a hold on McHugh
I guess Sunstein was the same.

[ Parent ]
Hold
I understand that, but they clearly had the votes, so why not put it to vote earlier?  Why not vote to end cloture now?

29/D/Male/NY-01

[ Parent ]
It wasn't clear they had the votes
supposedly some of the Republican votes weren't yesses until the day of the vote.


[ Parent ]
Because Harry Reid
Is a fucking loser?

[ Parent ]
NY-Gov Hillary Clinton?
Does this mean thar Obama will have to make David Patterson Secretary of State to free up the Govenor's mansion for Hillary?

Oy-vey!

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No,
but it would make any of the talking heads/PUMAs/Republicans who argued that Obama should make her Secretary of the Universe as a consolation prize look like the idiots that they are/were.

Her continued electoral viability in the future - i.e. if she wants to try again in 2016 - depends on not being seen as a sore loser and/or power-mad bitch, and quitting her Obama administration job after six months to take an easy shot at an executive's chair seems like just that, and would alienate most of the very few people in this country that she hasn't completely pissed off yet.

Of course, HRC IS a sore loser, and is almost as resentful of Obama as John McCain - and that only because John McCain has turned resenting Obama into an art form. I wouldn't be surprised if it were true that she put feelers out, but doubt she'll actually take the plunge.  


[ Parent ]
Wrong Clinton
   It would make a lot more sense for Bill Clinton to run for NY-Gov than his wife. Secretary of State Clinton would look almost Palinesque if she were to dump her very important job at this point. Former President (and Governor) Clinton is semi-unemployed so if anyone in that family should run for Governor, he is the one. Trivia question: Has anyone ever served as Governor of two different states before?

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

[ Parent ]
Not As Yet
Unless Rod Blagojevich decides to move to Vermont, the state where you can put a 'D' next to the name of your pet snake and it will get elected statewide anyway.

[ Parent ]
Hey:
Don't be talking bad about my home state of Vermont!

J/k - anyways, it is true that if you put a 'D' next to the name of your pet snake, it will get elected. Heck, you could run for dogcatcher in your town as a D and still win even if only a handful turned out. There are almost no Republicans up there anymore - and don't get me started on that party-switcher Tom Salmon.


[ Parent ]
Wrong and wrong again.
First, there actually is one example of a guy who was elected governor of two states - Sam Houston, who was governor of both Tennessee (I believe) and Texas. No one else has duplicated the feat since.

Second, just because Vermont went for Obama by 38 points doesn't mean it's a lock for Democrats at the statewide level. By your logic, Jim Douglas should never have been elected house majority leader, state auditor, state treasurer, and four-time governor, nor should Brian Dubie have been elected Lt. Gov. (Or Randy Brock been elected auditor, for that matter.) Also, liberals in VT are divided between D's and Progressives, which further splits the D side of the spectrum. If you want to make a similar joke at the expense of Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, or Illinois (minus MA-Gov, CT-Gov and RI-Gov), be my guest, but saying it about Vermont is just wrong.  


[ Parent ]
Yeah, Yeah
I know I should have mentioned Gov. Douglas. I was exaggerating a bit; as jsrosa mentioned, I was joking. I was just basing my knowledge on how left wing and progressive Vermont is as a state. This is a state where it contains a town, Bradboro (or something like that), that passed a resolution stating that if Dubya or Cheney shows up in that town, they are to be arrested and tried for treason. THAT's how left wing Vermont is.

[ Parent ]
I assume you mean Brattleboro
n/t

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
True.
Bubba would also be a much better SoS than Hillary, too, and his negotiating the release of those journalists in North Korea (instead of getting pissy with African students asking questions, as HRC recently did) proves it.  

Also, Bill is in a similar position to Ted Kennedy 30 years ago - he can't be president (in Bill's case again), so why not use his popularity to become a liberal icon and fight for the little guy? He doesn't owe anybody anything at this point. He could do a lot of good as governor of New York, just as Teddy did a lot of good as Senator.

And to answer your trivia question (as I also did below), Sam Houston. He's the only one.  


[ Parent ]
Thanks!
    I heard about someone considering it (Gov. Weld of MA later looked an NY) but didn't know of anyone succeeding.

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

[ Parent ]
Where are you getting this stuff from?
Of course, HRC IS a sore loser, and is almost as resentful of Obama as John McCain

If she's such a "sore loser," she sure has hidden it extremely well, by campaigning very helpfully for Obama after the DNC (especially in Florida) and serving well as Secretary of State. I also find this bullshit:


the very few people in this country that she hasn't completely pissed off yet

I am still pissed off at her for voting for the Iraq War resolution in 2003, but that's beside the point. She was pretty nearly chosen as the Democratic Party's 2008 presidential candidate, so millions upon millions of people weren't "completely pissed off." Nor are many of those who didn't vote for her spending a lot of time feeling angry right now; why should they?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Agreed
While this blog isnt for presidential elections (we'll be told cut this off by the end of the night, no doubt), Im gonna chime in.

So, I love Hillary Clinton.  However, I was an Obama supporter, albeit I decided really last minute that is who I was going to support.  After then, I got annoyed with Hillary and was right there with the Dkos people at times but the one thing I always lost focus about was that she got millions and millions of votes.  Obama was always ahead post Super Tuesday and that is what always stuck out, he was ahead so drop out.  (He wasn't necessarily always ahead because of the super delegate vote, but they all shifted accordingly).  I never realized that Hillary was only a few delegates away to winning it as well, being clouded by my Obama is winning fervor. All I saw were delegate totals and percentage points.

You can call her a sore loser and Ive said my share of negative things about her.  But she has/had the potential to be a legend and go down in history for all time and instead,Obama beat her to it.  I damn well hope she runs in 2016 and I dont see myself ever advocating so hard for a politician in my life.  She certainly has sucked at times in the past but she's certainly going down in the history books and our kids will be asking us about Hillary Clinton.  (Cant wait for them to ask me about Obama.)


[ Parent ]
Yeah
We avoided Obama vs. Hillary wars during the primary... we sure as hell aren't going to go through them now.

[ Parent ]
MA-Sen
Yet more proof that Andy Card, like most longtime Bush sycophants, is completely delusional.

When UMass's Romney-appointed president awarded Card an honorary doctorate a few years ago, the audience booed and a good number of the graduating class refused to walk - and this is doctorate students, mind you - they spent 6 years getting a Ph.D, only to have to boycott their own graduation ceremony because the politician who runs the school decided to diminish their achievement by awarding a scumbag like Andy Card a degree he didn't earn.

The only Massachusetts Republican less popular than Andy Card is Mitt Romney, and that only because Card hasn't repeatedly insulted Massachusetts while serving as a Massachusetts elected official and/or spent the entire second half of his term out of state campaigning for higher office.  


Is this Redstate?
The delusional Clinton hate had me confused for a second. And since when does the Weekly Standard count as a reliable source of information about any democrat? As for Pelosi, never been a big fan. She's not as spineless as Harry but she's no Tip O'Neil either.

CO-Sen, Gov Polls
http://www.rasmussenreports.co...
http://www.rasmussenreports.co...
Ryan Fraizer is actually ahead of Bennet, by a point.

Ras is strangely out of the loop in Colorado
Norton and Romanoff have been potential challengers for a few weeks yet they don't get polled.  Feels like that MA-GOV poll that left out Cahill.

Regarding the poll: wonder why Buck polls worse than Fraizer.  You'd think knowing nothing else a DA would be more appealing than a city counciler.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Yeah, I was wondering about that
I was hoping to see the first poll with Norton and Romanoff, I was very disappointed when I saw that. Probably because the people who have heard of Frazier like him alot more. He is much more friendly and charismatic than Buck it seems.

[ Parent ]
I wonder why Ras is like this
Maybe they think it's to expensive to poll candidates who aren't yet running (both announced when this was in the field I think).  I'd definitely like to see Norton: my suspicion is for now she'd be the equivalent  of a generic Republican, for better or worse, but maybe she's a lot better known than that or Bill Owen's popularity carried over to her.  

I don't know anything about Frazier vs. Buck's personal qualities so I don't know, but that would certainly make sense.  Maybe Buck's dropping out and reentering cost his some votes (PPP showed them with about the same level of support).  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
CA-St. Ass, Norby Sexual Harrassment Suit
Apparently Chris Norby and Orange County were sued by a former employee.

From the Orange County Register:

In April 2005, an Orange County Superior Court jury sided with Mokler, and awarded her a $1.7 million verdict on grounds she was fired for raising questions about the agency's operations. The jury also agreed that Norby made inappropriate sexual remarks, but did not award her any damages on the sexual harassment claim.

Following the jury's verdict, trial judge W. Michael Hayes decided the amount was excessive, and asked if Mokler would accept a lower damage amount of $125,000.

Mokler refused and appealed, asking the state's Fourth District Court of Appeal to reinstate the $1.7 million. The county argued the court should negate the jury award entirely. Norby also appealed, saying he did not commit sexual harassment.

On Monday, the court did not reinstate the $1.7 million award, instead finding that a new trial should be held regarding damages.

The court also considered Mokler's claims of sexual harassment. The first cited instance reportedly occurred in January 2003, at an off-site budget meeting. Mokler introduced herself to Norby, who called her an "aging nun" when he learned she was not married, according to the ruling.

The next month, Norby took Mokler by the arm at a hotel celebration and drew her close to him, saying she had a nice suit and nice legs, according to the ruling.

The last instance was in March 2003, the ruling said, when Norby told Mokler she looked nice and put his arm around her while the two were in his office. When Mokler started to talk about services provided by the Council on Aging, including services to Latinos, Norby interrupted, stating "Why the (expletive) do you have to do something special for Mexicans?"

"While we do not condone Norby's improper behavior, Mokler failed to present sufficient evidence of acts 'sufficiently severe or pervasive to alter the conditions of her employment and create an abusive working environment,' " the justices wrote.



Wow we win
Incumbent just resigned for talking about an affair over an open mic, their nominee will be someone who has been found guilty of sexual harassment.

I mean, done, right?  It cant be that Republican.  Maybe he wont be the nominee after all though then, and if this came out after he was already the nominee it'd be done deal.


[ Parent ]
It isn't
McCain only won it by a few hundred votes.  

[ Parent ]
Right.
And DuVall himself won with only 55% against MacMurray, who had little money and support from the CDP. While the current negativity towards Obama in the health care and spending departments may hurt our prospects here, we can still turn this into a competitive race with MacMurray. Yorba Linda is the main problem in AD-72.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Ahh
Yorba Linda. A beautiful place, when me and my family went to Disneyland when I was in the 3rd grade, we swung around Yorba Linda to visit the Nixon Library. I don't remember much except the piece of the Berlin Wall in the library and Nixon's childhood home. (It was as big as my living room btw.)

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
What's the deal with Yorba Linda?


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Yorba Linda went 3-1 for McCain
They have some sick attachement to the Republicans, perhaps it's Nixon's ghost...but the bulk of the district is in Fullerton, which was 50-50 last year, and a few districts in La Habra, Anaheim and Orange that went heavily for Obama.  

[ Parent ]
It is Richard Nixon's home town
so what did you expect?

[ Parent ]
Comments
NY-Gov: Pepper?  I'd say it's stronger than salt, and that this could only happen in (a Republican leader's twisted version of) Pepperland.

MO-08: Ouch, R+15.

SC-02: I just heard about this news today.  Holy crap, this is hilarious and awesome.

CA-St.Ass.: I still love that abbreviation.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


I find the abbreviation for Assembly funny too.
Though when I use the short version in analyses I usually do "Asm".

And I am not surprised at MO-08's numbers. That district is Arkansas North.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]

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