Coakley is probably going to win this thing

in addition, Im scared to see that Lynch is in second ahead of Markey

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by: jmartin4s @ Wed Sep 09, 2009 at 11:38:04 AM CDT

Lynch's Numbers

may be a sign that there are moderate Democrats in liberal Massachusetts, God forbid.

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by: Don't Tase Me, Bro! @ Wed Sep 09, 2009 at 11:44:14 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Well we knew that

Reagan did win the state, so did Romney.

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by: DTOzone @ Wed Sep 09, 2009 at 12:25:37 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Given the threat of Lynch, I'm happy

to see the possibility of local Dems falling behind one other candidate (Coakley).  

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by: andgarden @ Wed Sep 09, 2009 at 12:12:38 PM CDT

coakley

i think coakley just has higher name recognition. i plan on voting for capuano, hes the most liberal of the names currently in the race. markey is gettin pretty old and i doubt hes got what will prob b a nasty primary left in him. there are quite a lot of socially moderate cathloic dems in ma (ie. irish, italian and portugese-americans) but as the adds start goin out i think the real race will b between coakley and capuano. lynch will come at coakley from the right n in a closed primary, that wont work out too well, maybe in the south shore and worcester county, but not state wide

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by: thefnmarlboroman @ Wed Sep 09, 2009 at 12:34:48 PM CDT

Poll is meaningless

Here's why:

"likely Democratic voters"

If they only polled Democratic voters and not unenrolled voters, they missed over have the voters into state.  (Dems are 37%, Republicans 12%) Most of those voters are not stupid and are going to grab a Democratic ballot when they walk into their polling places.  Given that the political demographics of that croup is different than those who register as Democrats, excluding unerolleds from the poll is a huge mistake.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

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by: Marcus @ Wed Sep 09, 2009 at 12:59:33 PM CDT

I don't think you're right

"Massachusetts State Survey of 611 Likely Democratic Primary Voters."

I don't have access to the crosstabs, but I assume that Ras would make a basic investigation of the relevant voting universe.  

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by: andgarden @ Wed Sep 09, 2009 at 13:10:49 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Parsing what Rasmussen

ambiguously says in the fine print ("Likely Democratic primary MA voters," which is still more precise than what I wrote) makes me wonder if they accounted for the role of unenrolleds being able to choose which ballot they pick up, but they don't go into detail about their LV screen beyond that. That's a very good point to make, though.

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by: Crisitunity @ Wed Sep 09, 2009 at 13:10:59 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Know anyone with access to the crosstabs?

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by: andgarden @ Wed Sep 09, 2009 at 13:17:07 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Independents are included, to the benefit of Lynch.

Coakley is wiping out the rest of the field among women.  

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by: DCal @ Wed Sep 09, 2009 at 17:04:43 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Looking At The Numbers

A few points:

Coakley has the advantage of being the only name that everyone in the state has seen on a ballot (and thus the only name in the race that many people west of 128 have heard of) and the only woman.

Lynch has the advantage of being the only pro-lifer in what is otherwise a crowd of pro-choicers and the only non-liberal. His best chance would be a crowded field where he gets his base out and the liberals are divided several ways. He would need to get his name known to unenrolled conservative-leaning voters in places like Worcester, Springfield, New Bedford and Lowell. (His district includes some towns near the South Coast so he might be known there already.) But Lynch has got a low ceiling and has made some votes that his old labor base (a must for culturally conservative Catholic Democrats to win primary elections) can't be happy with, and his hemming and hawing about health care reform isn't helping either.  

If the netroots activists unite behind someone other than the above (Lynch is an obvious nonstarter with this crowd, and many of them do not seem happy with Coakley for one reason or another) they'll have a fighting chance with Markey or even Capuano (think Robert Reich's near-miss in the 2002 MA-Gov primary)in this sort of election - but only if one candidate emerges from that group.  It won't help them that Coakley is from Metrowest, normally a hotbed of these types of voters

My guess is that unenrolled voters will have low turnout, especially in the primary, and that Ras knows this...however, it may have been a mistake to exclude them entirely, as they are free to vote, all the action is on the Dem side, so some of them will.  

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by: Answer Guy @ Wed Sep 09, 2009 at 13:43:06 PM CDT

Coakley's lead is probably quite real

In a relatively short campaign, her status as statewide elected official, as well as being a woman, will set her apart from a field of less well-known men. The primary will happen in less than 3 months, so a name-ID head start right now is not insignificant. I also suspect that the current political environment means that not being a Washington officeholder will have some appeal.

She starts at a financial disadvantage against the Congressmen not because she is a poor fundraiser, but because she doesn't have a pre-existing pot of money raised for a federal races in the past. (Congressional campaign funds can be transfered to a Senate race, but state office campaign funds cannot.)  However, she can go back to all of her state donors and raise money for this race, while it is possible that the various Congressmen will find that at least some of their donors are already maxed out and unable to contribute more for this cycle. But there is no question that EMILY's list and her large lead in the polls will make sure she no problems raising all the money she needs.

Lynch seems to be counting on getting labor union support, but there seems to be some doubt about that -- his vote for the Peru Free Trade bill and his public doubts about a public health insurance option could mean that union support isn't automatic. But his image as a blue collar guy from southie will definitely have some appeal and he is likely to be a serious vote getter. (Although it has been some time since a conservative Democrat won a significant statewide primary -- going back to John Silber in 1990 or Ed King in 1978).

Capuano has a long way to go in terms of building name recognition and support in under 3 months, and will need some significant hook to set him apart from the other candidates -- it will be difficult to distinguish himself from Coakley, who is viewed as almost equally progressive on most issues.

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by: terje @ Wed Sep 09, 2009 at 13:44:38 PM CDT

I have a question

I am not questioning white union members' support for the public option but is their support diehard support? The public option seems to have a majority of support or close to it, amongst Americans, but the only ones who are diehard for it seem to be progressives (the netroots, for example) and minorities. Perhaps white union members are for it but do retain some skepticism. Especially amongst older white blue collar voters whom I would assume are the most likely to be registered Dem in MA (amongst all the white blue collar voters, that is. similar to places like western PA). So perhaps Lynch being uncertain on the public option wouldnt be that big of a deal with this group, especially with older voters.

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Thu Sep 10, 2009 at 03:16:30 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I remember someone telling me

On another prominent blog, who seemed to know what he was talking about, that Capuano isnt popular amongst the far left in his own district. Because of certain local issues. Perhaps development issues, im not really sure. He said members of socialist third parties are especially against him, so perhaps its the case for most ultra left voters (not saying all of them are 'socialist' obviously. i dont wave that word around so easily, unlike the GOP)

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Thu Sep 10, 2009 at 03:20:18 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

If Markey doesn't run

then Coakley will have lock on the primary. She has huge advantages in Western Mass, Boston Suburbs and will win huge in Middlesex and Norfolk County along with a huge proportion of women. Meanwhile Lynch and Capuano will be spliting the Boston vote. It time to see Lynch loose and election, he is horrible.

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by: jmartin4s @ Wed Sep 09, 2009 at 17:55:27 PM CDT

The Question

But is Coakley's support the kind that's a mile wide and an inch deep? There's no obvious reason why she should have a huge advantage out west (i.e. past 495) beyond mere name recognition. That certainly counts for something with such a short cycle...but people who vote mostly on name recognition tend not to show up for elections of this sort. In many states it would be a selling point that she's never served on the Hill in any capacity, but I'm not sure that's true in this case.

Lynch has his natural constituency but he's not going to be able to grow it much except among the unenrolled.

The people who propelled Reich in '02 were the leaders in putting Patrick past Reilly and Gabrieli 4 years later. They could put someone else over the top here, but only if they moved in unison.  

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by: Answer Guy @ Wed Sep 09, 2009 at 19:00:17 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Gag at Coakley.

Now Massachusetts will have two bland, uncharismatic senators. Anyone's better than Lynch though so I shouldnt bitch too much!

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by: Tyler Oakley @ Wed Sep 09, 2009 at 18:21:37 PM CDT

Coakley isn't bland at all

she's very sharp and effective (sort of like a Lisa Madigan-type personality). She'll be a good senator.

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by: jmartin4s @ Wed Sep 09, 2009 at 18:26:18 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

She's smart

and very liberal and more aggressive and courageous than people guess.  She's quite the operator and does a lot, keeps in touch with a lot.  I just don't know whether she assembles clout and chits and friendships in the way e.g. Kennedy did.

I guess what she needs is a clear sense of connection to the various important strands of liberal tradition in the state, i.e. to the suburban and rural liberals of the Thoreau/Emerson vein, to the spread out Unitarian/Quaker/UCC sorts that give local government in New England its unique quality, the high tech professionals, the Brahmin liberals, and working class Irish, black, and Latino women and young men.  Kennedy was meticulous about keeping good relationships with these groups, some overtly and others subtly.  I think Coakley has some real upward potential if she wins the seat.

I think my House Rep, Markey, is not going to get in the running.  He's similar to Kerry, an excellent second in command but hesitant to become the incarnation or realization of an ethos.  That's the cloud that hangs over this Senate seat, that with rare exceptions the primary (usually senior Senator) from Massachusetts has an implicit duty to become willing leader of the New England delegation in the Senate and embody in person the region's role in the nation.  Which is as a semi-reticent, but dutiful, moral leader, as a source of optimistic but cautious humanism, a voice strongly insistent on the practical and the empirically possible, both reverent and skeptical.  And capable of sacrifice for things believed in.

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by: Baystater @ Thu Sep 10, 2009 at 01:46:25 AM CDT

[ Parent ]