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IA-HD90 Open Thread

by: DavidNYC

Tue Sep 01, 2009 at 8:32 PM EDT


11:06PM: It's over - Hanson wins! Congratulations! Final tally: 3,932 to 3,825. Burgmeier actually carried Wapello by four votes, but it wasn't enough. Anyhow, this is great news... for John McCain!
10:55PM: Pass the dutchie 'pon the lef' han' side... looks like our friends at the Wapello County Board of Elections are taking a bit of a ganja break.
10:38PM: The first two precincts in Wapello have come in, and they are looking good for Hanson - he leads there 339-178. Burgmeier would need to carry those last six precincts by an 18-point margin to eke out a win.
10:34PM: All of the outstanding precincts are in Wapello Co., which Obama won with 55% of the vote last fall.
10:33PM: Much closer now - 20 of 28 precincts, and Hanson's lead is just 3,335 to 3,224.
10:22PM: Polls are closed in Iowa, and with a quarter of precincts reporting (all from Jefferson Co.), Dem Carl Hanson has a lead of 2,050 to 1,441.
James provided some background on both of tonight's special elections in this earlier post. Polls close in Iowa at 10pm Eastern time, and in California at 11pm. UPDATE: Via folks in comments, Gov. Schwarzenegger has ordered that results be held until 10pm Pacific (1am Eastern) so that firefighters from the district who are fighting fires in Southern California can have extra time to vote.

Results: IA SoS | CA SoS

If you have other results links, please post `em in comments. Also, as always, you can use this thread to make predictions.
DavidNYC :: IA-HD90 Open Thread
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IA-HD90 Open Thread | 112 comments
No CA-10 results until 10:00 PDT (1:00 EDT)
Just left this explanation in the previous thread.
CA-10 Late results
There will be no reported results in CA-10 until 10 p.m. California time due to the Gov allowing firefighters to vote in their command certers until 10.  The law does not allow release of results until all polls are closed.  

http://www.ibabuzz.com/politic...

You east coasters:  Get some sleep.    

Just a little analysis...
 So the counties in the Iowa Senate district are Jefferson, Wapello and Van Buren Counties. Obama won Jefferson with 58% and Wapello with 55%. McCain won Van Buren with 54%. So here is what you need to watch for: the Democrat has to come in really strong in Wapello and Jefferson Counties to win. If he loses one of them, he should be toast.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

If true, then we should win this.
Van Buren is all in now and only gave the Republican a 2 vote lead in the district.  Jefferson is only like half-in and nothing from Wapello.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
fourth of july party
What does the Fourth of July party stand for?

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
Fireworks

[ Parent ]
Sounds like a right-wing party.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
he's a right-winger
who thinks the Republican candidate is a sellout on social issues.
[ Parent ]
Hanson up early
Curt Hanson Democrat 2050

Stephen Burgmeier Republican 1441

Hanson comes out swinging
with about 59% in Jefferson through 7 districts.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
10 votes so far
for the 4th of July party.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
First update: Hanson (D) winning Jefferson Co. big......
Seven of 11 precincts reporting in Jefferson, Hanson up 57.8%-40.7%, a healthy margin with raw numbers of 2050 to 1441.

Need to win Wapello big, and if Hanson does that, Van Buren shouldn't matter.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

Looking good for Hanson...
Obama won the Senate district. Hanson is winning Jefferson County with about 58% of the vote, the same as Obama. The race is still too early to call but I think Hanson has a good shot at winning.

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

How much did Obama win by?


34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
R takes lead
Curt Hanson Democrat 3039

Stephen Burgmeier Republican 3041

I guess Wapello will decide it.

Wapello is Democratic, so feel good with fingers crossed......
Hanson should pull this out barring a Wapello surprise.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
but the Ottumwa part of Wapello
is not in this district.
[ Parent ]
jefferson
last 2 precints in jefferson better for the R.  

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
[ Parent ]
wait
did worse again in the final 2.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
[ Parent ]
Seems over.
Van Buren is all in and Burgmeier is up by 2 votes.  Hansen should win remaining precincts.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
Wallepo County...
Voted for Obama by 14 points. Since Hanson ran as well as Obama in Jefferson County, he should do the same in Wallepo County. I expect a win for Hanson.  P.S Two precincts in Jefferson have not reported and Van Buren is all in with Wallepo 0% in.

Current count is

Curt Hanson
Democrat 3039
Stephen Burgmeier
Republican 3041
Dan Cesar
Fourth of July Party 34
Douglas William Philips
Nominated by Petition 222
Write-In Votes
  6
Total Votes
  6342  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

With 100% reporting everywhere outside of Wallepo County...
I am calling this race for Hanson. Even if the Republican magically wins Wallepo County, he should not win by 111 votes.

Current results
Precincts Reported: 20/28

Curt Hanson
Democrat 3335
Stephen Burgmeier
Republican 3224
Dan Cesar
Fourth of July Party 35
Douglas William Philips
Nominated by Petition 228
Write-In Votes
  6
Total Votes
  6828  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

fourth of july party
really taking a beating.  

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
yeah
I was hoping for better.  Are 4th of July party members allowed to comment on this site?

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
[ Parent ]
I think there's one
in the AR-Sen thread.
[ Parent ]
yes
I read his comment about Them ther hills.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
[ Parent ]
DavidNYC
has no patience for those Fourth of July party SOB's.  He will ban their asses.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Two Counties In....
The GOP overperformed (compared to McCain) in Van Buren, but the turnout was tiny per precinct compared to Jefferson, where Hanson did only slightly worse (56-43) than did Obama.

Unless Wapello comes in GOP, this is done. Anyone know offhand where the candidates are from?

"You share your young with the wolves of the nation, there's nothing left til you pray for salvation."

--Black Rebel Motorcycle Club

"American X"

But the Rep is UNDERperforming in Wapello!


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Van Buren County
is really rural, even by Iowa standards. Apparently there is not a single stoplight in the whole county. Turnout probably was reasonably high there as a percentage, but the population is very small.
[ Parent ]
Van Buren
Didn't the R here do better than McCain in Van Buren?

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
Considerably Better....
McCain, according to a previous commenter, won Van Buren 54-45. The GOPer here (Burgmeier) won 58-33. The independent who petitioned onto the ballot (Philips) took like 8-9% here.

"You share your young with the wolves of the nation, there's nothing left til you pray for salvation."

--Black Rebel Motorcycle Club

"American X"
[ Parent ]
Yes,
he outperformed McCain by about 3.5%, but I don't think it was enough.
[ Parent ]
Jefferson all in
Hanson has 2675 votes or 55.6%.
Burgmeier has 2057 votes or 42.8%.
done
D wins.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
Early Wapello Almost 2-1 for Hanson
Doubt it will stay that way, but it is provides him with an almost unbeatable cushion.

Good win for the Iowa Dems, if this holds. Shows that in politically marginal territory, railing about the scary gays isn't a surefire electoral winner.

Thank God.

"You share your young with the wolves of the nation, there's nothing left til you pray for salvation."

--Black Rebel Motorcycle Club

"American X"

Hanson
Im pretty much calling it for Hanson now :). So much for the anti-gay marriage folks voting like it was no tomorrow. This just shows how this issue is changing for the better.  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
gay marriage
the average person does not even take it into account in a state legislative race one way or the other.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
[ Parent ]
What Teen Is Referring To...
Is the fact that there were apparently a pissload of independent expenditure ads by "family groups" basically saying that a vote for the Republican was a vote to restore "traditional values" in Iowa, which was being over run by...to quote the scholar Bob McDonnell..."cohabitors, homosexuals, and fornicators."

"You share your young with the wolves of the nation, there's nothing left til you pray for salvation."

--Black Rebel Motorcycle Club

"American X"
[ Parent ]
yes
I am aware of that but most people will ignore that stuff.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
[ Parent ]
Hasn't Always Been The Case....
But it has become more so over time.

Evolution, maybe...

:)

"You share your young with the wolves of the nation, there's nothing left til you pray for salvation."

--Black Rebel Motorcycle Club

"American X"

[ Parent ]
Ohio
Well the anti-marriage referendums did help bring out the vote for Bush a little in Ohio in 2004  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
[ Parent ]
yes
agreed.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
[ Parent ]
Bush won Ohio in 2004
By a smaller margin than he did in 2000, even though his nationwide margin was bigger in 2004 than in 2000. So I think this is a very hard assertion to support.
[ Parent ]
I think he wouldn't have "won"
if there hadn't mysteriously been an absence of polling places in heavily Democratic (African-American, student) areas of the state and they hadn't thrown out loads of provisional votes by Democrats.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Oy
I regret getting into this. Anyhow, even if you are right, that only supports my point - Bush did worse in Ohio in 2004 than in 2000.
[ Parent ]
Ohio
I only meant that it helped bring out the wingnuts to vote.  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
[ Parent ]
I don't think it really helped Bush
If someone isn't going to vote in the Presidential race they really don't care about politics.  I doubt any ballot measure could bring them out.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
It totally helped
It got people to get out and vote against teh gays which also meant they'd vote for Bush.

Less to do with how people are already voting and more so how it gets new voters out to vote.  

[ Parent ]
I think the people motivated by the ballot measures where already pretty motivated
If someone cares so little about politics that they aren't voting in a presidential race, what ballot measure is going to get them out?  Bush already set himself up as the anti-gay marriage candidate.  Anyone who cares about that as an issue would already be turning out to vote for him.  Since the Presidential race got far more attention than the ballot measures, I find it pretty hard to believe that the ballot measures were the motivator of votes.  I can't imagine Joe the Wingnut sitting at home saying "Bush is really speaking my language about gays, but I don't really care enough to vote.  Oh wait!  A ballot measure!"  Bush's campaign made a vote for him a vote against gay marriage to these people:  if they didn't care yet, they won't care with another vote.  Maybe in a mid-term or an off year election, but not in a presidential race.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Something else to keep in mind
In states that voted to ban gay marriage in 2004 the average swing toward Bush from 2000 to 2004 was 2.55%.  Nationwide it was 2.98%.  

The Battleground states produced even less of a swing.  Michigan, Ohio, Missouri, and Oregon, the four battleground states that had those ballot measures in 2004, swung a tiny average of .115%.  If those states, where the Bush campaign would be milking the ballot measures for all they were worth, didn't swing much, it's hard to argue that they helped Bush.  Assuming I did my math right, it looks like they were no conceivable help to Bush.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Plenty of people dont care to vote in Presidential elections
It's always hard to guess voting behavior as  Minnesotan since everyone here pretty much votes so using first hand experience doesn't work too well.

But from my general knowledge, I bet there are plenty of people who dont bother to vote in elections even though they are pro-life and anti-gay.  Especially considering these people generally have lower levels of education and income compared to the other side of the coin, and lower eduction and lower income voters have some of the lowest turn-out rates.

Plus, the GOP strategy for 2004 was PURELY turn-out.  Ive had to read plenty of books in my poli sci classes about this, Bush knew he wouldnt be able to actually win over moderates or undecideds that well, you either loved him or you hated him.  So the goal was turn out as many people as possible that loved him, and that was aided by gay marriage amendments.

Plus, Id venture a guess that many of these voters aren't motivated by politicians, even if what they are saying is what they want to hear.  Most people rightfully have a jaded viewpoint of politicians and undereducated voters are most likely in that boat.

But, going and voting for a gay marriage amendment, that certainly creates the results one would want to see instantly and still helped turn-out.  I think we can argue all day over whether the amendments affected any results or argue over how many people it turned out and if it was significant, (and we can argue all day because there arent any numbers to back either of us up  ><) but those amendment certainly had to have gotten some voters out to vote.

Hell, church clergy cant stand up on their pulpit and say, VOTE FOR BUSH!  (they did though) but they can certainly say, You need to go vote for the gay marriage amendment!  Much more legal to rally for a gay marriage amendment than for a candidate.  (That shit needs to change.  I dont ever want to hear the word vote in church, not that I go.)

[ Parent ]
But the homophobes would have spun it like crazy as a repudiation of gay marriage had the Republican won.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Hopefully this holds
How closely did Hanson tie himself to gay marriage?  Did he come out in support or opposition, or try to avoid the issue?  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


He came out in favor of
having a public referendum on it or so I understand

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
wait
Isn't that the Republican position in the state?

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
[ Parent ]
Yes as far as I understand


34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Both candidates had the same position
which made the outpouring of money on the issue a little weird.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
won't matter
It is almost impossible to get a referendum on the ballot in Iowa.  An amendment has to pass the legislature in 2 consecutive sessions or something.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
[ Parent ]
not so simple as that
The LGBT group One Iowa got behind Hanson in a big way, and I'm sure they would not have if his position were the same as the Republican position.

He may have said the public should vote on this issue in the sense that an initiative is already on the 2010 ballot about convening a constitutional convention (this is automatically on our general election ballots every ten years). I don't think he supports a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage.

[ Parent ]
All I know
All I know is that the goper had like so many adds from anti-equality groups on behalf of him.  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
[ Parent ]
if
there are 1500 votes out the R would have to win 900 to 600 in a D county.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
Yep...The Math Really Doesn't Work
I really like Hanson's chances. Good news for Iowa Dems. Today's SUSA numbers in Iowa looked horrible for both Obama and Culver, and I suspected that they might be off. This convinces me. This seat was marginal enough that if there were a huge anti-Democratic sentiment here, the Democrats could have lost.

"You share your young with the wolves of the nation, there's nothing left til you pray for salvation."

--Black Rebel Motorcycle Club

"American X"
[ Parent ]
that SUSA poll looks like an outlier to me
First of all, SUSA's approval numbers for Culver are consistently lower than what other pollsters find around the same time. In March SUSA had Culver at 46 approve/47 disapprove while Selzer had Culver at 55 approve and Hill Research Consultants had Culver's approval at 52.

In early July, The Iowa Republican blog's commissioned poll found Culver at 53 approve/41 disapprove, and just a couple of weeks later SUSA had Culver at 42 approve/50 disapprove. Hill Research did another poll in late July and didn't release approval numbers for Culver (just a 52 percent favorability number and a lousy 31 re-elect/55 give someone new a chance). I am sure Hill Research would have released Culver's approval number if they had found him in the 30s or even in the low 40s.

Now SUSA is telling me that during the month of August Culver and Obama and Harkin and even Grassley hit all-time lows? I am not convinced.

Selzer will probably do a poll in the next four to six weeks. If she shows Culver underwater on approve/disapprove, I'll be more worried.

[ Parent ]
Looks like
the six remaining Wapello precincts are taking a ganja break.

A shame the Fourth of July Party is doing so poorly.

Yeah, But I Hear That The....
Boxing Day Party is about ready to open up a big ol' can of Whoop-Ass in the California 10th.

Stay tuned....

"You share your young with the wolves of the nation, there's nothing left til you pray for salvation."

--Black Rebel Motorcycle Club

"American X"

[ Parent ]
Jenga break, too?
Cause, I would imagine it would be difficult to play jenga whilst high on ganja.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Wapello
ZERO votes in Wapello so far.  Now what proud American could vote against the 4th of July party?

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
[ Parent ]
How geeky is it
that we're so interested in the fate of the Fourth of July party in a state legislative special election? :-)
[ Parent ]
We are normal
and the people who don't care about the fate of the Fourth of July party in Iowa HD 90 are geeky.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
How geeky is it that we now know the political leanings of three obscure Iowa counties?


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
It makes us
patriotic, not geeky.  
[ Parent ]
Put out the ganja and count the fucking votes!!


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
I am reminded
of the Indiana presidential primary where the Gary area took so long to finish counting.  Many Clinton supporters insisted that they were cooking the books in Gary.

So I ask you, can we really trust these ganja smokers in Wapello County?

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Let me get this straight ...
Are you saying there might be less-than-clean elections in Lake County, Indiana :)  The real news would be if the Region could run a fraud-free election.  In its defense, however, it is a very multi-cultural, 21st century type of inclusive fraud, including white, black, and hispanic crooks in pretty equal proportions.

And in (sort of) defense of Gary, most of the precincts that took so long to report during last year's primary weren't actually from Gary, but from other parts of northern Lake County.

[ Parent ]
Lol
"In its defense, however, it is a very multi-cultural, 21st century type of inclusive fraud, including white, black, and hispanic crooks in pretty equal proportions."

We've come a long way in this country from the days in which electoral fraud was a whites-only enterprise.  Sniff  Brings a tear to my eye. :p  

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Its over officially
and the good guys win by 107 votes.
Wow
Burgmeier won Wapello.  Hanson wins by 107 votes.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
looks more like 214
GREAT!
Whhoops ! Never mind I read the total as a fourth county
107 is correct!
[ Parent ]
California
Now we go to waiting for the California results come 1am. Screw you haters of gays. This is another lose for you :P.  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
these results are
bad news for the St. Patrick's Day Party
Hanson's
margin over the Fourth of July Party was 3,892.  Those guys are going to have to refine their message.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
From what I'm told
The Secretary of State's office mistakenly thought a flyer for "Dan's Fourth of July Party" was actually a statement of candidacy.
[ Parent ]
Roffle!

[ Parent ]
Haha! Fuck you, NOM!


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
NOM NOM NOM!

[ Parent ]
OH NOM NOM NOM!


[ Parent ]
And fuck you
Fourth of July Party!

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
wow
Are mom and apple pie next?

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
[ Parent ]
I'm sorry
I got swept up in the moment.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Between the 4th of July Party
And the petition guy, that was more than our margin of victory. So they may have helped us.
[ Parent ]
Some info on the FOJP
Ultraconservative purists critical of Burgmeier's lack of bona fides.

http://iowaindependent.com/187...

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
i hate subject lines
the petition candidate received most of his votes in Van Buren.  

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
[ Parent ]
I Agree, David...Especially....
Since the one reliably GOP county was where the guy that petitioned (Philips) did the best, getting nearly 9%.

"You share your young with the wolves of the nation, there's nothing left til you pray for salvation."

--Black Rebel Motorcycle Club

"American X"
[ Parent ]
Damn it!
I solely came into this thread so I could give a big fuck you to NOM, but you beat me to it, :(  Meh, there is room for two of them.

FUCK YOU NOM!!!!  MWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!  

NJ will be passing gay marriage once the lame duck session begins (kinda pansyish if you ask me, how about you do it before the election and have some guts....)

Cant wait for the 2011 legislative sessions, that'll be a whole other wave of gay marriage, and it wont be limited to New England.

[ Parent ]
Pansyish?
No comment. :-)

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
jefferson county
Is the Jefferson County district that much larger than the rest?  The R did much better than McCain in the other 2 counties but Jefferson swamped them.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
Almost 60% of the votes came from Jefferson.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
The weird thing
is that there are twice as many people in Wapello County as Jefferson (36,000 in Wapello, 16,000 in Jefferson, c. 2000). I get the impression they're more civic-minded in Jefferson? It's the location of the Maharishi University, so it's a county with a disproportionate share of transcendental meditators. A lot of them used to vote Natural Law Party, but I think they probably lean left in general and that's why it's a Dem-leaning county. Wapello is just kind of generic blue-collar agricultural; the big town is Ottumwa, which is probably best known for where Radar O'Reilly was from on MASH.
[ Parent ]
Wapello
Is the entire county in this district?

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
[ Parent ]
Much simpler explanation, Yogi
A good chunk of Wapello is in the 93rd HD (and a notch of Jefferson is in the 89th). Map (PDF). Ommm.
[ Parent ]
Jesus, Shows My Level Of Intellect...
I thought you were referencing Yogi Bear, and was wondering to myself which one of you was supposed to be Boo-Boo or the Ranger.

"You share your young with the wolves of the nation, there's nothing left til you pray for salvation."

--Black Rebel Motorcycle Club

"American X"
[ Parent ]
only about ...
15-20% of Wapello's population is in dist. 90, and a rural part at that; which also explains why the Rep. won by 4 votes there, even though the county overall is quite Democratic.  Nearly all of Jefferson (population-wise) is in dist. 90, as well as literally all of Van Buren.
[ Parent ]
only part of Wapello is in district 90
The main population in Wapello is the city of Ottumwa, and that's in a different House district.

Fairfield (in Jefferson Co) is by far the largest town in district 90.

[ Parent ]
Apparently
JeffCo cast more votes than the other two combined (roughly 60% of the total votes).
[ Parent ]
That looks
roughly proportional for turnout for Pres 08.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
4th Special Election Victory for Dems in a Week
After the Dem pickup of a Republican seat in the Kentucky State Senate and a hard win in Louisiana for the State Senate (add on an easy House election), Democrats just won a 4th of 4 special elections. Three of the elections were in competitive districts and I think this shows that the Democratic brand is still strong!*

But if Congress doesnt get off it's a* and get SOMETHING passed... then we'll have some real problems!

Burgmeier is
a Jefferson Country Supervisor and he did no better than McCain in this county. Looking at Burgmeier's ample beard, I say the mustache/beard curse in politics had more to do with this lost than the gay marriage issue.  
[ Parent ]
ummm.
geez. It is getting late. I cannot spell.

country = county
lost = loss.  

[ Parent ]
not all of Jefferson County
is in House district 90. Burgmeier may have done better if all of the rural precincts in this county were included.
[ Parent ]
Am I the only one
Who thinks the Republican candidate looks like the love child of Robert E. Lee and an Amish farmer?
IA-HD90 Open Thread | 112 comments

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