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SSP Daily Digest: 8/28

by: Crisitunity

Fri Aug 28, 2009 at 3:24 PM EDT


KY-Sen: Here's a surprise; Mitch McConnell says he still won't endorse in the GOP Senate primary, despite the presence of only one establishment candidate anymore (SoS Trey Grayson). Is he worried about drawing the wrath of the nationwide army of malfunctioning Paulbots? Anyway, even though he won't endorse, he and 22 other GOP Senators are still planning to host a $500/person fundraiser in DC for Grayson in September.

LA-Sen: David Vitter dodged rumored challenges from Suzanne Terrell, Tony Perkins, and John Cooksey, but his luck may yet run out. Retired Lt. General Russel Honore, who has a high profile from his role in leading forces tasked with rescuing Katrina victims, says he's leaning toward running in the GOP primary. Honore, a Creole African-American who lives near Baton Rouge, says he's been a Republican since the Reagan era. A tough primary might be just what we need to soften up Vitter before loosing Charlie Melancon on him.

MA-Sen: The Massachusetts Secretary of State says that Gov. Deval Patrick has two choices as to the timing of the special election to fill Ted Kennedy's seat: A Dec. 8 primary and a Jan. 19 general, or a Dec. 15 primary and a Jan. 26 general. (D)

NV-Sen: If this is meaningful, and not just cloud talk -- that Harry Reid is going on record as saying health care reform must contain a public option, which moves us that much closer since (as best as I can tell) he's the person with primary responsibility for how to merge the (good) HELP and (probably crappy) Finance Committee bills into one -- we may have Danny Tarkanian and Susan Lowden to thank for passage of a public option. Facing suddenly perilous re-election prospects in the polls, Reid may be realizing that he's going to need strong on-the-ground union support to stay in office in 2010, and that he's not getting anything but tepid support from them without a decent reform package.

AR-Gov: There was a second phase to PPP's Arkansas poll that showed Blanche Lincoln looking weak for re-election, with some details about the 2010 gubernatorial race. If there's one governor in the country who doesn't have much to worry about it, it's Democrat Mike Beebe, who has 63/17 approvals and beats prospective GOP challenger state Rep. Allen Kerr 55-24.

AZ-Gov: Arizona's Republican Gov. Jan Brewer, still getting her feet wet in the gube office, says that she's "leaning toward" running for a full term in 2010. Despite having a rough time with the state legislator with her proposed tax increases, Brewer says that she "loves being governor, and I love campaigning". (J)

GA-Gov: Rep. Nathan Deal doesn't seem to be getting much traction in the Georgia Governor's race, but now there are some nasty allegations out that may further dim whatever luster he once had. Apparently he intervened with Georgia state officials, lobbying them to preserve an obscure state program on inspection of rebuilt salvaged vehicles. Deal owns co-owns a salvage company that provides the location for these inspections, a company from which he personally earns up to $150,000 a year. Deal personally lobbied the state Revenue Commissioner against opening the program up to competitors instead of preserving his monopoly.

SC-Gov: State lawmakers are apparently getting ready to hold a special session of the legislature to impeach and remove Gov. Mark Sanford. Meanwhile, an Insider Advantage poll says 50% of South Carolinians think Sanford should resign. (D)

IA-05, IA-Gov: Rep. Steve King has ruled out a run for Governor and will run for re-election to the House again. While having been mentioned as a possible candidate earlier in the year, shortly after gay marriage was legalized in Iowa, he hadn't shown much interest lately. Looks like it's Terry Branstad (who's still making up his mind) or bust for the Iowa GOP.

IL-14: Rotta the Huttlet Ethan Hastert won't have the GOP primary to himself in his attempt to revenge the Hutt Hastert family name. Mark Vargas, a former Dept. of Defense official in Iraq, former Kane County Young Republicans chair, and briefly, an aide in the elder Hastert's district office, said he'll run too.

MT-AL: Best wishes for a speedy recovery for Rep. Denny Rehberg, who is listed in stable condition after being injured in a boating accident on Flathead Lake at some point between 10 pm and midnight last night.

NC-08: Republicans finally have a candidate to challenge freshman Democrat Larry Kissell this year, but it's not anyone with a track record of electoral success. Retired Army Col. Lou Huddleston, who won 38% of the vote in an unsuccessful state House campaign last year, announced yesterday that he'll seek the GOP nomination to challenge Kissell just a week after ex-Rep. Robin Hayes and former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory passed on the race. Republicans seem to hope that Huddleston, who is African-American, will chip some support away from Kissell in the district's sizable black community. Good luck with that. (J)

ND-AL: A Republican has stepped forward to take on entrenched Blue Dog Earl Pomeroy in North Dakota. Paul Schaffner currently is an insurance salesperson and has no electoral experience, but may have some residual name rec from his stints as football player at NDSU and assistant coach at local Jamestown College and Univ. of Mary.

NYC-Mayor: SurveyUSA has a new poll of the Democratic primaries in New York City, which closely match the Quinnipiac findings earlier this week. For the Dem nod in the mayoral race, Comptroller William Thompson leads city councilor Tony Avella, 48-13. Ex-Public Advocate and former mayoral candidate Mark Green has a big lead at 38% in the Public Advocate primary.  City councilor Melinda Katz leads the Comptroller field at 27%.

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 8/28
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Vitter won't lose the primary, but he'll get beaten up well...
I don't imagine Honore will be able to raise enough money to get any traction in the primary, but I imagine a big part of his primary campaign will be reminding GOP voters of Sen. Vitter's predeliction for visiting prostitutes.

I might be in the minority, but I think Charlie Melancon has a pretty good shot at winning this thing if he can raise enough money. I know upcoming redistricting (where he would have a good chance at having his seat drawn out from under him) had a hand if his decision to run for Senate, but I don't think he'd make a go at this unless he thought he had a good chance to win.


semi-related question
From Wiki:

During the 2004 campaign, Vitter was accused by a member of the Louisiana Republican State Central Committee of having had a lengthy affair with a prostitute in New Orleans. Vitter responded that the allegation was "absolutely and completely untrue" and that it was "just crass Louisiana politics."

Then

In early July 2007, "This was a very serious sin in my past for which I am, of course, completely responsible. Several years ago, I asked for and received forgiveness from God and my wife in confession and marriage counseling. Out of respect for my family, I will keep my discussion of the matter there - with God and them. But I certainly offer my deep and sincere apologies to all I have disappointed and let down in any way.

It's one thing to wear diapers and sleep with hookers in D.C. and back home in New Orleans, all while being married with several children, it's another one entirely to lie blatantly to the voters as pathetically as he did...


[ Parent ]
Honore could surprise
Honore's got a lot of on-the-ground popularity from his (rather heroic) efforts during Katrina. Among Republicans, Vitter's support at this point seems broad but not deep. If Honore's conservative credentials stand up and he turns out to be a strong campaigner, I could imagine him pulling off an upset.

But I agree that Charlie Melancon has a real shot against Vitter. He's got Cajun support, which is often the deciding factor in LA, plus he has pretty impeccable conservative credentials (for a Democrat, obvs). If Mary Landrieu can win post-Katrina, then Melancon's should feel good about his chances, too.  

29, D, CA-27, 2nd class citizen


[ Parent ]
Can an African American
Win a GOP primary in the South? I have my doubts.

[ Parent ]
For that matter
Can an African-American win a Democratic primary in the South? Statewide, I mean -- not in minority-majority districts.  

Nothing against the South, but I have my doubts.  


[ Parent ]
Uhh, yes
You must have been asleep for all of 2008.


[ Parent ]
I don't think so haha
Unless you mean Obama, in which case that's a foolish mistake on my part. I was talking about Senate and gubernatorial elections, but I'll shut my mouth now...

[ Parent ]
Black voters
control the Democratic primary in most southern states.  

[ Parent ]
I think "most" is overstating it


[ Parent ]
Not in the slightest
I actually know what I'm talking about.

[ Parent ]
I suppose that'll come to pass
although I'd be surprised if he wins statewide, especially if the anti-Democratic tide in the South keeps getting bigger in 2010.

[ Parent ]
Same with Meek in Florida
Statewide I imagine in most cases when an Dem African American is running they will be the favorite in states with heavy AA populations like VA, the Carolinas, Georgia (though not Thurbert Baker because Barnes is running), LA, MS and AL but not so much in TN, AR and FL*. Pretty much how the presidential primaries ended up.

[ Parent ]
That makes sense.
But with some of those states, I'll believe it when I see it. Obama barely won NC and FL, and didn't win even VA by that much -- and he lost the rest of the South. I concede the point that most Democratic primaries in the South are controlled by black voters, although I would point out that there aren't too many black Democratic nominees in the South even in this day and age (i.e. for Senate, governor, or lieutenant governor).

If Artur Davis or Kendrick Meek win in the general election, that would really be something, but I wouldn't hold my breath. I don't have anything against the South personally -- I have family and friends in Southern states -- but I suppose I do have an overarching, not entirely inaccurate stereotype of racist Southerners. Granted, it's been decades since the civil rights movement, but since Obama's election it's been clear that racism is alive and well in the U.S.  


[ Parent ]
Well I was talking Democratic primaries
Certainly not general elections.

[ Parent ]
I know you were...
...I'm just rambling a bit.  

[ Parent ]
Several examples I'm aware of
1990:  Harvey Gantt, US Senate--North Carolina

1996:  Harvey Gantt, US Senate--North Carolina

North Carolina can support a statewide black candidate.  A good friend of my Dads, Ralph Campbell (African-American), was elected 2 separate times as State Auditor of NC (elected in 1996 and 2000).  His brother was the former mayor of Atlanta who ended up in prison.

I think Erik Fleming of Mississipi is an African-American.  He won the Democratic nomination for US Senator in 2006 and 2008.

2006--Tennessee U.S. Senate's race:  Harold Ford Jr won the Democratic nomination.  

1989--Wilder, Virginia, won the Virginia's governor's race.



39, male, NC-04


[ Parent ]
Might depend what kind of African American
Honoré is (a) very light-skinned, (b) obviously, military, and (c) Creole.

Colin Powell, with (a) and (b), was one prototype of an African-American male candidate who clearly could have done well in a Republican primary somewhere, had he ever entered politics.  Honoré has (a),(b),and (c), which I think could be a very effective combination if you're looking for an African-American male whom Republican primary voters in Louisiana would find acceptable.

And don't underestimate the humongous number of military voters in Louisiana.  It's hard to say, but I think he might have a chance to pull an upset, if he looks credible on the stump and gets some money somehow.


[ Parent ]
dont the dems
Still control both state house and senate in louisiana?  If so, him being redistricted out of his own seat seems pretty assbackwards

[ Parent ]
They do
but a lot of them are DINOs.

Check out the 2010 California races and help us take back Red California!

27, Indy, Female, TX-03


[ Parent ]
And
There are Republican leading independents. The Senate has 23 Democrats and 16 Republicans. The House has 51 Democrats, 50 Republicans, 3 independents, and 1 vacant.  

[ Parent ]
Special Election TOMORROW
The special election for that state house seat is tomorrow. The candidates are Anna  Simmons-D and Ledricka Johnson Thierry- D  
Hmm, there is also a Senate election tomorrow that Wikipedia did not tell me about! Candidates are Brent Callais-R and Norby Chabert-D.  

[ Parent ]
Your number for the State House of Representatives
is wrong.  It is 59-44 with two vacancies.

http://www.legislature.state.a...

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


[ Parent ]
My bad
Somehow I thought you were reciting Alabama numbers.  Your numbers are right for Louisiana.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
I hate that term
"DINO" or "RINO" really frustrates me...party affiliation shouldn't be dictated solely by political ideology. It's possible to be a conservative Democrat or a liberal Republican...it's just increasingly rare these days.

[ Parent ]
The latter
Certainly not the former.

[ Parent ]
Indeed
Former Sen. Lincoln Chaffee comes to mind. I suppose Olympia Snowe is the most liberal Republican in the Senate right now, and I wouldn't place her further left than the center of the spectrum.

When the pendulum eventually swings back and the Republicans regain the majority, they'll have more liberal politicians in Democratic-leaning districts, similar to how Dems have conservative politicians like Rep. Walt Minnick in conservative districts. It's a cycle.


[ Parent ]
You forgot VT-Gov.
The incumbent R, Jim Douglas, announced that he wouldn't run for re-election yesterday, which basically means that even in a terrible, horrible, no good very bad cycle we'll probably pick up the seat.  

We had that
on the front page yesterday. Discussion still seems to be going on there, if you want to jump in.

[ Parent ]
Will Curt Schilling run for Senate in MA?
Will ex-Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling run for Senate in the MA Special? He is probablly a bit too conservative for Mass but then again he did win 2 World Series for the Red Sox!

http://www.associatedcontent.c...


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Not going to happen
He's one of those celebrities that is (for whatever reason) always talked up about running, but never does, like Charles Barkley running in Alabama.

[ Parent ]
Barkley: 2014
Barkley
In September 2006, Barkley once again reiterated his desire to run for Governor. He noted, "I can't run until 2014 ... I have to live there for seven years, so I'm looking for a house there as we speak." ...  
In September 2007, during a broadcast on Monday Night Football, Barkley announced that he bought a house in Alabama to satisfy residency requirements for a 2014 campaign for governor. ...
In February 2008, Barkley announced that he would be running for Governor of Alabama in 2014 as an Independent. On October 27, 2008, he officially announced his candidacy for Governor of Alabama in an interview with CNN, stating that he will run in the 2014 election cycle.
So he's setting himself up with the residency requirement.
Will he really do it in 2014? Who knows, but it'd be entertaining.

[ Parent ]
"I was a Republican until they lost their minds"
I forgot to include that great quip of Barkley's, one of my fav's.
But this is odd, that quote isn't in his Wikipedia entry anymore. Could've some pissed off Repub excised it out of the article?

[ Parent ]
AL GOV from politicalwire
Davis Leading in Alabama Gubernatorial Race
A new Alabama Education Association survey shows Rep. Artur Davis (D-AL) leading the field of Republican candidates for governor by between 6 and 12 points in general election match-ups.

Former Judge Roy Moore (R) is the closest, down six, while State Treasurer Kay Ivey (R) is the furthest behind, down twelve.

Meanwhile, Davis leads his primary opponent, Ron Sparks, by 30 points in the poll.

Good news, wonder who the undecided voters are...  


AL poll
In that poll, Obama is at 50% in Alabama.  That blows the credibility of the poll away.

[ Parent ]
I agree
Obama is probably more like 40% in Alabama, if that.  This poll probably oversamples Dems or Dem leaning groups in some way.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
full disclosure
I am a Republican by the way.

[ Parent ]
You don't have to be a Republican
to believe Obama ain't at 50% approval in Alabama.  I'm a latte liberal and I don't believe it.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
hey
maybe Alabama has had an influx of you people in the last few months lol.

[ Parent ]
not so fast my friend...
well the poll was finished on Aug 12 or released on the 12th, not sure, but that would have been before a lot of the town halls... Also, Obama's approval was at 56 percent or so a couple of weeks ago... which means his lowest states would probably be right around fifty... and that gallop 50 state poll came out a week or so before that and showed Obama at above fifty percent in alabama...

[ Parent ]
Survey USA had him at 42%
a little over a month ago.  His approvals have been on a downhill trend mostly sense then.  My sense is that my 40% is probably right on the money.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
They don't let people like me in Alabama!


34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Gallop August 10
Alabama falls between 55-59...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/122...

Also, I know Obama has been on a free fall the last two weeks.  But this poll shows Moore leading the primary and I'm sure he turns off some moderates.


[ Parent ]
I wonder if they even polled Byrne...
I would be shocked if Moore were leading Byrne.  The Republican party is truly on the brink if that happens.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Davis
Also, I'd argue that Al Davis is the conservative version of Obama; As Joe Biden would say, he's rather clean and articulate...  Maybe that was a bad joke but it was meant as a compliment, everytime I've seen Al Davis he knows exactly what he's talking about, is polite, engaging, and I can't imagine any non racist disliking him.  Of course he still has to win the policy debate which is hard to do in Alabama for any dem, but he's a great gu and should do okay.

[ Parent ]
Artur Davis is the conservative D Representative
   From AL-07 IIRC. Al Davis owns a football team in Oakland, CA. Other than the name your comment seems about right, though I am no expert on AL politics. I live a lot closer to Oakland than Montgomery or Birmingham.

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

[ Parent ]
Oops
You goofed.  That Gallup poll is effective end of June, although it wasn't released until mid-August.  I fell into that trap too.  When I first saw that polls I was wide-eyed, but then realized it was a month and a half old.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
2002 Gov race
Bob Riley beat incumbent democrat by 3,000 votes...

2002 wss very republican and granted republicans beat an incumbent but an off year election in Alabama isn't out of the question, we hold 3 of 4 house seats.  African American turnout will most likely be pretty high, and if Moore is the candidate I'll bet someone 100 bucks Davis or Sparks will win.


[ Parent ]
I'll drink (a latte) to that!
Moore winning would be a godsend, and the best path to a Davis victory.  

Don't get me wrong.  I'm not writing off Davis, but I'm writing off this poll to some extent based on the Obama approval.  I suspect Davis's true status is more like his internal poll showed a few months ago, which showed him close - above some and below some - with all of the Republican heavyweights with 20% or so undecided.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


[ Parent ]
We actually hold
3 of 7 House seats.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
lol
I need to stop watching funerals and start paying attention to my typing...

[ Parent ]
Two of the three
are among the worst DINOs that you can find.  One suggested that Pelosi go to a mental hospital.

[ Parent ]
Don't confuse AL and MS
   The Democrats have 3 out of 4 in MS; maybe 3 out of 7 in AL (Bright in AL-02, Griffith in AL-05 and Davis in AL-07). Am I missing someone?

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

[ Parent ]
It could easily go the other way,
but Brewer taking over as Arizona guv could turn out to be a good thing for Dem chances at winning the 2010 election.  Now, as things are at their hardest for incumbents, a Democrat isn't in charge, and Brewer has to actually do the job and deal with the Republican legislature.

Brewer
Wow, a Governor (in this case, Brewer) is actually doing what she thinks is right and not doing something based on getting elected. But that probably means her defeat if she is re-nominated and has a strong challenge. I doubt the rabid GOP base goes out to vote for her. But it could also mean shes successfully primaried. She should better hope she has two strong Club for Growth challengers so she wins with a plurality. JD Hayworth might still want to get back in the game...

Lincoln
Also, I wonder if Lincoln would also be defeated because of the public option. But in her case just simply voting against it. While AR Dems dont seem to be strongly pro-union they do still seem to be pretty populist. Without them coming out to vote she may be toast.

I suspect "pppulism" works in Arkansas
Huckabee is what I'd define as a wingnut populist, with his anti-big business rhethoric.

[ Parent ]
Actually I think Lincoln
might vote for the health care bill w/ a public option.  Certainly Walmart's general support for a health care bill would give her cover to do so.

[ Parent ]
BTW, why is this thread titled "SSP Daily Digest: 8/27"?
instead of 8/28.

It was a test
And you won the prize.

[ Parent ]
Babka?
I noticed that yesterday but let it go.  I should get babka for my restraint...

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Next time
Don't hesitate to speak up, son! :)

And don't worry -- we'll have more opportunities for the SSP community to win another babka in the very near future.


[ Parent ]

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