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VT-Gov: Douglas Won't Seek Re-Election; SSP Moves to "Tossup"

by: James L.

Thu Aug 27, 2009 at 11:11 AM EDT


Well, ain't this a surprise:

Douglas, midway through his fourth term, will hold a news conference at 11 a.m. in the Governor's Ceremonial Office in the Statehouse.

Multiple Republican sources have said the governor has decided against running for a fifth two-year term.

Douglas met with his staff and with cabinet members at 10 a.m. Member of the administration now are making their way to the Statehouse for the 11 a.m. announcement.

Douglas perfected the knack of survival in this deep blue liberal state, but he was already drawing some decent challengers -- state Sen. Doug Racine (a former Lt. Governor who lost a gubernatorial race to Douglas by two points in 2002), state Sen. Susan Bartlett, and Secretary of State Deb Markowitz. In his announcement (which is streaming live right now), Douglas says that he won't run for the Senate or the House in 2010, and he'll serve out the remainder of his term.

Republicans will likely turn to the next biggest name on their bench to take over in 2010 -- sitting Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie, who, somewhat amazingly, has also managed to win his office on his own right since 2002.

UPDATE (Crisitunity): With this decision, Swing State Project is changing our rating of this race to "Tossup." Given the state's decidedly blue hue, "Lean Democratic" wouldn't be out of the question, but Dubie is no slouch and we are intensely aware of the capacity of the Progressives in Vermont to screw things up for Democrats. If it's clear that Anthony Pollina won't get in the race this time, we will feel more confident about Dems' chances.

RaceTracker Wiki: VT-Gov

James L. :: VT-Gov: Douglas Won't Seek Re-Election; SSP Moves to "Tossup"
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Well
As a native Vermonter, this is a godsend. I never cared much for Mr. Douglas - he has done nothing in his four terms as governor.

Now it's time for the Dems to take back the seat.  


Howard Dean
Howard Dean might want his old job back.

No!
Vermonters can't keep the man who should have been President to themselves.  Share the awesomeness.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
VT
Again great news for us.

29/D/Male/NY-01

never known you to say any news good for Dems?
Color me confused by your comment knowing your posting history...

[ Parent ]
Leaves just Rell in Connecticut
as the last Republican governor in the Northeast.

Just awesome all around
IF We pick up NY-23, take this governorship, NH-Sen,  and a Dem or Chaffee take RI governor. . .

Man, the Gov. Rell, Sen. Snowe, and Sen. Collins show. How long can it last?

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


[ Parent ]
My sentiments exactly. n/t


birch paper - mostly NH, mostly politics.

[ Parent ]
Won't last much longer
I have a feeling Snowe will retire in 2012, possibly because of health concerns.

Collins may stick around another term or run for governor.

The CT governorship is Rell's for as long as she wants it, but I don't see her serving more than 1 more term.


[ Parent ]
Close to the last MALE
Snowe, Collins, Rell, what's her name running in NY.... all moderate WOMEN.  

Not counting RI gov and NH Sen, what is it, two male Democrats in the NY House and that is it for R men in the northeast?


[ Parent ]
I think the only
glimmer of hope for the GOP in this race is the Progressive Party.

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.

This should be "lean Dem" not "toss-up"
Brian Dubie is no Jim Douglas.

First, it is far from certain Dubie will run. He has been remarkably unengaged and uninterested in Vermont. Last year he was actively job hunting out of state, and he treats the Lt Governor's job as a very part-time gig.

Brian Dubie has not been very involved in the governing of the state -- despite being Lt Gov to a Gov of the same party, Dubie simply hasn't been an integral part of the Governor's team, and has had an extremely low profile on the critical fights around the state budget, economic issues, etc. Indeed, the only issue that Dubie has taken any leadership on was last year's push for harsher sentences for sex offenders (after a particularly heinous local case) - and that resulted in extremely bipartisan legislation passing and being signed into law, so he can't use it as a signature issue.

Secondly, despite winning several statewide elections, Dubie does not have the political profile Douglas did. He hasn't been familiar to Vermonters for decades of holding office. Douglas carefully shaped an image (an inaccurate one) as a moderate Republican, while Dubie is widely perceived as being much more conservative than Douglas (especially on social issues).

Could there be a 3-way race that could complicate things? Perhaps, but the Dems and Progs in the state get that there is a huge problem with that, and I wouldn't be surprised to see some kind of fusion arrangement in 2010 (a Dem like Racine for Governor, a Prog like Pollina for Lt Gov).

People talk about the Pollina and the Progressives messing up past races for the Democrats -- but the simple fact is that Douglas has won a majority of the vote in every election expect his first narrow victory over Racine (and in that election the 3rd candidate in the race wasn't a Progressive, but rather an independent former Republican).  We can't blame a split opposition vote for Douglas's victories.

While a Democratic victory here is far from a sure thing, at this point it is far more likely than any other outcome.


Isn't that the case
With the LG position? I remember Howard Dean talking about how when he was LG he was still a practicing doctor.

[ Parent ]
It is full time pay
with part time responsibilities.

It isn't uncommon for the Lt Gov to spend some time on their previous profession -- Howard didn't practice medicine full time when he was LG , but still would see patients 1 or 2 days a week.

Dubie on the other hand (partially because he is an pilot) spends a great deal of time out of Vermont, and even when he is in state he is rarely in his office in Montpelier. (There have been a number of newspaper articles looking at his schedule and how little time he spends on official duties.)  


[ Parent ]
It would seem
The GOP's best bet would be to get a true moderate/liberal Republican, someone from the state legislature (or the ex-VT Nat. Guard. Leader who ran for the House in 06), to run. Sure theyd lack name ID but the voters would know who they are soon enough with all the campaigning (especially grassroots campaigning). I have also heard that Dubie is much more conservative than Douglas. So hed be, well, a dubious choice. Lt. Gov. or no Lt. Gov. hes probably too conservative to win a Governor's race.  

[ Parent ]
Although
Martha Rainville, the Republican candidate for the House in 06, probably has solid name rec. from her competitive House race.  

[ Parent ]
I'm uncomfortable referring to Pollina as a "spoiler"
The point at which third-party candidates stop being spoilers is the point at which they start beating major-party candidates.  Pollina did that last cycle; he's no more a spoiler than Joe Lieberman was a spoiler for Alan Schlesinger.

Granted, the Dems have better candidates this cycle, but I would like to see Pollina run for Lt. Gov as a Progressive and win it now that Dubie isn't running.  He's broken 20% in that race before even against Dubie.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...



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