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NC-08: Hayes Won't Seek Rematch

by: James L.

Wed Aug 19, 2009 at 2:14 PM EDT


From the Charlotte Observer:

A day after saying his plans were "undetermined," former U.S. Rep. Republican Robin Hayes said today he won't run for congressional seat he lost last November.

"I'm going to do everything I can to help recruit and finance and give what experience and assistance I can to make sure that that person - and it's not going to be me - is properly prepared," Hayes told News 14.

This is good news for Kissell, who is not known as an energetic fundraiser (and likely will never be), in that Hayes could always be counted on to cough up a few million bucks to lend to his own campaign. I'd still expect Kissell to get a serious challenge, but it at least it will be from someone whom he can probably compete with at a more even financial level.

Outgoing Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, possibly the strongest nominee the GOP could muster here (though, he doesn't live in the district), is still not committing to a run.

RaceTracker Wiki: NC-08
James L. :: NC-08: Hayes Won't Seek Rematch
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NC-08: Hayes Won't Seek Rematch | 22 comments
McCrory
I thought that Pat McCrory said in his concession speech that he wouldn't run again after he lost to Bev Perdue. In addition, he narrowly lost Mecklenberg county to Perdue in the governor's race.
In fairness
Perdue had some pretty good coattails in Mecklenburg:

Obama 62 McCain 37
Hagan 62 Dole 35

Plus the district is Mecklenburg plus other more conservative areas.

I'm not trying to go Tekzilla here, but my sense is that McCrory would beat Kissell by a reasonably decisive margin if he were to get in.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Is this a new SSP meme? "To go Tekzilla"?

[ Parent ]
I can only hope it catches on. n/t


34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Once you go Tek
You never go Beck!
[ Parent ]
NC
Very funny.  I don't think Kissell has much to worry about.

29/D/Male/NY-01
[ Parent ]
Oh the rich, delicious irony of it all.
I have found myself out-chicken-littling Tekzilla in NC-08.  I love it!

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Apparently, McCrory wouldn't start out with much of an advantage in the district
Not that much of Charlotte is in it.  I'm not sure if McCrory won the district during his bid for governor, but apparently he did well in some areas and badly in others: http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

McCrory should definitely be taken seriously but at least on paper he isn't an utterly terrifying candidate.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Also Kissell might be able 'Run against Charlotte"
Labeling McCrory as a "Carpetbagging Big City Mayor" might work well in the rural parts of the district.  Though he'll have to be careful not to insult Charlotteans too much, since he'll nead their votes as well.  

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
Similar to
The way in which Sam Graves successfully labeled Kay Barnes as an immoral,  big city mayor for running in a mostly rural district  
[ Parent ]
Sorta
You do have to remember that Barnes fit those labels like a glove; her past life as a sex therapist didn't exactly do her any favors, ridiculous as that attack may seem to those of us in towns bigger than 20K. Does Pat McCrory have anything particular in his background that would rub rural voters the wrong way, other than the plain-old fact that he's from Charlotte? He could always pull a Mittens and run against the locale where he's chosen to live and raise his family.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
[ Parent ]
Here are the county-by-county breakdowns
in the McCrory/Perdue race for the counties comprising the Eighth District.

Anson - 63-36 Perdue
Cabarrus - 63-35 McCrory
Hoke - 63-34 Perdue
Mecklenberg - 49-49 Perdue
Montgomery - 50-48 Perdue
Richmond - 57-41 Perdue
Scotland - 63-35 Perdue
Stanly - 66-32 McCrory
Union - 69-29 McCrory

McCrory dominated the counties immediately adjacent to Mecklenburg County, and Perdue dominated in the smaller, Eastern counties.

My sense is that McCrory has some gravitas from a competitive statewide run, and I can't help feeling that Kissell is a bit of a lightweight.  Maybe it's just the poor fundraising, but he also doesn't seem like the brightest light.  But what do I know?

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
I disagree
Why would the GOP want Hayes as their nominee. He has shown how poor a choice he would be by losing in a landslide.

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.
Disagree with what, exactly?

[ Parent ]
With the idea
that its bad for the GOP thats Hayes wont run. Hes very flawed. Could he spend alot of money? Sure. But balancing that with his flaws.....I think you should have wished Hayes had run again, like Sali.

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.
[ Parent ]
I agree
On the face of it, I agree with Kyle's reasoning.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Oh, I agree that the GOP has better options
McCrory, as I mentioned in the post, or a state legislator would be better choices, but Hayes doesn't have Sali-levels of toxicity. He'd be a better choice than running some no-name banker or businessman as the NRCC is wont to do when they can't get anyone with a political resume to run, so I wouldn't agree that this is bad news for Dems, either.
[ Parent ]
The part of Mecklenburg County in NC-08
is heavily Democratic, Obama got about 75% of the vote there. Also, only 15.44% of the district's population lives in Mecklenburg County. I'm pretty sure that McCrory lost the district, and even if he didn't it is still extremely Democratic on the local level and in other races. I can't see McCrory running-or winning-here.
If McCrory runs for anything
it will be Sue Myrick's district, once she retires. That's probably the area of Mecklenberg where he is the strongest. As others have noted, the sliver of Charlotte that is in NC-08 is not very friendly to Rs. Plus, it looks like McCrory didn't go over so well in the eastern part of the district. That area was always Robin Hayes' weak spot, and it was the main reason why he always performed so weakly against less-than-first-rate challengers.
Yeah I don't think Hayes ever got over 60%
Even against weak Democratic opponents he could not dominate in this district which seems intrinsically more friendly to Democrats than meets the eye sort of similar to NC 02 and many other Democratically held districts in the South.  
[ Parent ]
Yup. And he only cracked 55% twice, and barely at that.
Wikipedia check:

1998: Robin Hayes (R) 51%, Mike Taylor (D) 49%
2000: Robin Hayes (R) 55%, Mike Taylor (D) 44%, Jack Schwartz (L) 1%
2002: Robin Hayes (R) 53.63%, Chris Kouri (D) 44.62%, Mark Andrew Johnson (L) 1.75%
2004: Robin Hayes (R) 55.5%, Beth Troutman (D) 44.5%
2006: Robin Hayes (R) 50.1%, Larry Kissell (D) 49.9%
2008: Larry Kissell (D) 55.4%, Robin Hayes (R) 44.6%

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

[ Parent ]
Pretty pathetic for Hayes
Especially 2002, with no GOV race to motivate Dems to the polls and Liddy Dole winning 54-45 at the top of the ticket Hayes only gets 53.6%? This one was a long time coming even if national Dems didn't know it.
[ Parent ]
NC-08: Hayes Won't Seek Rematch | 22 comments

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