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KY-Sen: Bunning Will Retire

by: James L.

Mon Jul 27, 2009 at 4:29 PM EDT


Craptaculastic:

Embattled U.S. Sen. Jim Bunning has announced that he will not seek re-election to a third term in 2010.

His decision ends months of speculation that he would drop out of the Senate race because of his inability to raise money, poor poll numbers and lack of support from top Republican officials.

Needless to say, this race just got a whole lot tougher -- and less fun. However, Democrats will still have a solid shot at this seat as long as the primary between Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo and state AG Jack Conway doesn't get too bitter. (Mongiardo hasn't been playing too nicely so far, but it's still early.)

UPDATE: Straight from the horse's mouth:

"To win a general election, a candidate has to be able to raise millions of dollars to get the message out to voters," Bunning said in a statement. "Over the past year, some of the leaders of the Republican Party in the Senate have done everything in their power to dry up my fundraising. The simple fact is that I have not raised the funds necessary to run an effective campaign for the U.S. Senate. For this reason, I will not be a candidate for re-election in 2010."

Shorter Bunning: I let McConnell roll me, because I'm a sadsack.

LATER UPDATE: In the comments, trowaman has a pretty good suggestion for Bunning; he should make good on his earlier threat to resign and let Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear select his replacement! What better revenge could there possibly be against McConnell and the NRSC?

RaceTracker Wiki: KY-Sen

James L. :: KY-Sen: Bunning Will Retire
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Not a huge surprise
but still, this sucks

You got rolled!
Now resign to stand up for yourself! Proove you are not a sad sack Sen. Bunning!

Coward!
Neener-neener-neener!

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


Conway or Chandler
Ben Chandler or Jack Conway could probably beat Trey Grayson. In addition, Jack Conway raised 1.8 million in just the second quarter. I wish that Mongiardo would drop out of the primary.

Chandler endorsed Conway.


[ Parent ]
1.8 million total
$1.3m in the 2Q.

[ Parent ]
...?
I believe Conway has raised 1.3 million in the 2Q making it 1.3 million total.  The main FEC Page says that.  Where the hell is the 1.8 million figure coming from?

[ Parent ]
My mistake
I was operating from memory -- and for some reason, I seemed to recall Conway raising some money in the first quarter.

[ Parent ]
Yup
McConnell rolled Bunning. I bet he was sayin, 'your ass is grass and I just smoked it!'

Perhaps there is another story within this story. Perhaps this will set a precedent of the GOP establishment (notably the GOP Sen. Campaign Committee) doing literally all they can, financially, to get a Republican senator to step down. And if Bunning, perhaps the most stubborn man in the Senate GOP caucus, is willing to eventually raise his arms and give up...then perhaps anyone would. Ironically their next target might very well be...ex-NRSC Chair John Ensign!  


We need to start a campaign to rickroll McConnell.
In revenge for his "out-rolling" of Bunning.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Chairman of the NRSC have loosing elections lately
Ted Stevens (chairman 1975-1977) defeated
George Allen (chairman 2003-2005) defeated
Elizabeth Dole (chairman 2005-2007) defeated
Noteable Mentions
Mitch McConnell (chairman 1997-2001-only won because he Dems didn't recruit a top tier candidate.
Norm Coleman-defeated (lost vote for chairmain of NRSC to Elizabeth Dole by 1 vote).

John Ensign looks vulnerable in 2012 especially if Obama has the same margin of victory that he had in 2008 in Nevada. Dina Titus or Shelley Berkley might be able to beat him. Especially since the previous two chairman in a row (Allen and Dole) lost. Then next up would be taking down Cornyn.


[ Parent ]
Ensign's Situation
reminds me of former Arkansas GOP Senator Tim Hutchinson in 2002. Hutchinson left his wife to marry his young staffer, whom he was having an affair with prior. He ended up being the only Republican incumbent to lose his seat in a GOP year when they regained control of the Senate.

[ Parent ]
Agreed
Ensign might well be toast. Particularly since the state has more than three years Hispanic and urban growth left in it before election day.

[ Parent ]
This is Nevada though
They may be more tolerant of those sorts of things.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
The affair is nothing to Nevada, but...
The simpering, wimpy coverup is offensive to Nevadans.  

It's like, "Fine you had an affair, but man up about it.  Don't have Daddy try to fix it."


[ Parent ]
He was in trouble before this
Purely because of demographics. Hence the noises about a possible presidential candidacy. I don't think he'll run again myself.

[ Parent ]
No problem
Conway can beat Grayson. Mongiardo has one more shot at a decent fundraising quarter or else he should get out. Same with Brunner in Ohio.

UGH
Well, so much for a sure thing...

Has anyone seen any polling for this race?

40, male, Democrat, NC-04


Good thing
Because he's a more palatable candidate for me than Dr. Dan.

[ Parent ]
Does this mean Rand Paul is a candidate in the GOP primary?
Please, please, please let him jump in and let all of Ron Paul's 2008 followers pour their resources into helping him win the primary. Don't rest until there's a R[EVOL]ULTION 2.0 blimp floating over Churchill Downs!

Well, with all the fun we're not going to have with Bunning,
this might not be a bad runner-up prize!

[ Parent ]
Best quote
The Lexington Herald-Leader (kentucky.com) quotes a Larry Forgy as saying, "McConnell treats his friends like some people treat Pampers - disposable."

Bunning is publicly pissed at Grayson.  The bad vibes on this are not over by a long shot.  Meanwhile, Rand Paul is praising Bunning to the skies and claiming to be the only real conservative in the race.


I never even heard of Rand Paul
unit I saw him on Rachel Maddow. I dont think he has the name recognition to even get 10% of the primary vote. Good luck with that Rand!

[ Parent ]
but his dad sure does
and if his dad comes to the Bluegrass state and does some campaigning on behalf of his son I bet it makes an impact...

[ Parent ]
Its not like
Ron Paul had a huge impact back in 2008. Dont know why he would have a greater one for someone else in 2010.

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.

[ Parent ]
In other news
DSCC redesigned their site, check it out, especially their 2010 senate map.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

Oh, the Fun that Would've Been Had
I guess now this race goes back to being Lean R.

Nah
Tossup. Grayson isn't exactly a huge name. The partisan leanings of the state will help him but Conway is an attractive candidate. In more ways than one! :)

[ Parent ]
Grayson isn't the strongest candidate
Grayson only barely got 53% of the vote on his first statewide election in 2003, (a good year for republicans in Ketucky). Conway got 61% of the vote on his first statewide election in 2008.

[ Parent ]
Conway was elected in 2007
That's the cycle when all the rest of the statewide candidates (GOV, SOS, etc.) are elected in KY too.

[ Parent ]
I'm gonna go with today's Electoral-vote.com report on this one.
Lean R, until shown otherwise.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Aw, so happy
this is just the latest of good news the GOP has been getting on the Senate race front in the last couple months FINALLY.  

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.

Conway will win
I am pretty confident in his ability to fundraise and his 60-40 victory in 2007 gives me the belief he can do it regardless of the GOP opponent. I don't really think Mongardio will catch on with the Democratic primary voters to be much of a threat.

KY SOS
I know a senate seat is more important but don't scoff at KY SOS, if we get that then we will have every (maybe) statewide office.  That should help us hold the governor's mansion when Beshear is term limitted.  If Grayson wins we get his seat so maybe this is better.  Either way we get something out of this instead of all or nothing.

McConnell and Cornyn
They did a job on Bunning, cutting off his funds. I almost feel sorry for the old coot. Almost.

Deliberately cutting an incumbent off at the knees...
... could open up Pandora's box.  Ensign could be next and who knows who else.  

[ Parent ]
What would you have done
if you were a thinking Republican? They had to cut him off at the knees. He couldn't win.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
well, one less Crazy in the Senate
I can live with that.

I'm counting on D's winning in NH, Ohio, and Missouri.  The 50/50 one is North Carolina.  So +3.5.

I'm worried about Blanche Lincoln, though.  I suspect Dodd's going to get out and that one won't be a problem.


[ Parent ]
Lincoln?
With gaffe after gaffe for the Republicans, you're really worried about Blanche Lincoln? I mean, Obama lost Arkansas, but I have yet to see any signs of competency in the Arkansas GOP.

[ Parent ]
A Republican successor
If elected...would have an identical or near identical voting record to Bunning's...*but* theres the very real chance he would be much, much more sane in the rhetoric department. I think thats where the big difference would be. A very conservative Republican in the voting department but someone who doesnt come across as an extremist when he opens his mouth.

[ Parent ]
which is far more dangerous in the long run
This is the best shot we've got to pick up the seat, while the demographics are still not absolutely awful for us. A saner Republican can hold that seat for life - but so can Conway or Mongiardo.

[ Parent ]
I'm not sure why people think Dodd will turn it around
Maybe they should cut him off at the knees. I'm not too worried about Lincoln. So far her opponents are a bunch of knuckleheads.

Call me pessimistic but I see the D's winning Missouri but losing NH, FL, OH, and KY. Also, IL and CT. And depending on what Mike Castle does, I could see them losing DE. I hope I'm wrong.


[ Parent ]
NH REALLY?
A non elected AG who quit her job after 4 months when she was supposed to do a four year stent vs. someone who has won 1/2 of New Hampshire against better republicans than her?  I don't see how you think the dems won't pick that up.  and as far as Illinois, I don't see how Kirk wins that either.  Dodd won't be allowed to run if he is still anemic.

[ Parent ]
I don't trust NH
I think it has the potential to swing back especially if unemployment is still high. I'm not that impressed with Hodes. So-so approvals and fundraising. Ayotte is a blank slate who will campaign as a "moderate". She may turn out to be a trainwreck though. I think Kirk is a much better candidate than anyone gives him credit for. If 2010 is a typical midterm, the Rs will win some races despite their suckiness.


[ Parent ]
Ayotte has many disadvantages
First of all John Lynch is not happy with Ayotte at all for violating her promises to serve out her full appointed term as attorney general. Second, she is gonna have a lot of trouble raising money because NO ONE HAS EVEN HEARD OF HER BEFORE NOW! Obama will also probably be involved in this race because Hodes was an early supporter of Obama early in the campaign. My view is that if Carol Shea-Porter can win a third term in her district in 2010, Hodes will probably beat Ayotte. It just has to do with the new political dynamic of New Hampshire. (not to mention the coattails Lynch will have if he runs for a fourth term)

[ Parent ]
Repubs generally don't win such blue states
While Dems have a much better record in deep red states. The deepest blue state Repubs are in Maine. Going by 2004 for a rump baseline and Kerry won IL by 11 and ME by 9. And Mark Kirk is no Olympia Snowe or even Susan Collins.  

[ Parent ]
Kelley
Had been state AG for more than 4 years before she resigned.  

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.

[ Parent ]
I think the point was
that she had just started her second appointed term and that she promised the governor she'd serve out a full term before she was appointed.  She then broke that promise within months.

[ Parent ]
Illinois?
Seriously? Mark Kirk's a top pick-up for the Republicans, but with the circus that is Roland Burris out of the picture, Giannoulias should have no trouble holding onto Obama's old senate seat.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
It's still reasonably possible to lose CT, but not reasonably possible to lose IL
IL is far more blue, and has been blue for longer.  Mark Kirk is the best IL Republicans can get, pretty much, while for CT Republicans, there's Jodi Rell if they really need a 500-pound gorilla.  Also, as someone else said, the Rod Blagojevich Political Drama Circus is basically over.

KY I put at lean R until shown otherwise.  OH I put at tossup until shown otherwise.  NH I'd say we have a slight advantage at (lean D), and FL is likely R with Crist and tossup without.

DE I cannot yet get a decent read on.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


[ Parent ]
I wouldn't call KY-Sen a Leans R
Conway starts off with a lead against Grayson (admittedly Mongiardo starts off slightly behind), has good favorabilities, and has strong fundraising. Kentucky isn't adverse to voting for Democrats, just not for President. True, this makes it harder to win the seat, but it doesn't mean that this isn't one of the best chances for a pick-up either.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Well, toss-up then.
Conway leads 37-33, but trails in favorables 40-21 versus 46-19.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
I do genuinely feel sorry for him
Though I don't agree with his politics or many of the things he says, for that matter), it must suck to have your party turn on you like that.

[ Parent ]
I also feel genuinely bad for him.
They didn't even give him a chance.

I was actually curious whether Bunning would be willing to drive around the state in his own car or something and actually put up his own grass-roots campaign in revenge.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


[ Parent ]
Don't feel too bad
We might have to do the same thing to Chris Dodd next spring.

[ Parent ]

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