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Three who have to go.

by: wayoutonthesteppe

Tue Mar 31, 2009 at 8:30 PM EDT


I favor Democrats working to field the best possible candidate in every Congressional district and to mount the strongest possible campaign in each.  Hand-in-glove with that effort, Democrats also need to think ahead to and visualize success next election day and in future elections and to plan backwards in time from those successes to assure that all that needs to happen to assure those successes does happen.

So I am thinking about less than a handful of Congressional districts where Democrats should make exceptional efforts to take out Republican incumbents in 2010, both because a challenger could imaginably win and because the districts consist of territory that is important to a Democratic future.  These are the Iowa Fourth, the Nebraska Second, and the Ohio Twelfth.  These districts are respectively represented by Republicans Tom Latham of Ames, Lee Terry of Omaha, and Pat Tiberi of Columbus.  Barack Obama carried all three districts, and each district played a constructive role in his Electoral College margin.

And Latham, Terry, and Tiberi need to go.  

Today I looked at how interest groups evaluated the three, and (while, because of my haste in checking, I acknowledge certain limitations vis a vis timeliness as well as some potential for mistake) I believe I have identified several broad themes that tie the three men to each other.

Abortion.

On abortion Latham, Terry, and Tiberi support Planned Parenthood (http://www.plannedparenthoodaction.org/) zero percent of the time and the National Right to Life Committee (http://www.nrlc.org/) one hundred percent of the time.

Czars of Financial Institutions.

On financial institutions Latham, Terry, and Tiberi have been one hundred percent for Financial Executives International (http://www.financialexecutives.org/eweb/startpage.aspx?site=_fei).

Energy and the Environment.

Latham, Terry, and Tiberi have at best very spotty records on energy and the environment.  Those records are perhaps best illustrated by zero percent scores on energy legislation supported by the Campaign for America's Future (http://www.ourfuture.org/) and for supporting continuing dependence on fossil fuels as evidenced by 100 percent scores from the American Coalition for Ethanol (http://www.ethanol.org/).

Families and Children.

On family and children's issues Latham, Terry, and Tiberi scored 100 percent with the American Family Association (http://www.afa.net/), but zero percent with American Family Voices (http://www.americanfamilyvoices.org/).

Guns.

On gun issues Latham, Terry, and Tiberi are rated "A" by the National Rifle Association (http://www.nrapvf.org/), but all get zeros from the Coalition to Stop Gun Violence (http://www.csgv.org/site/c.pmL5JnO7KzE/b.3509205/k.BDBC/Home.htm).

Health Care.

On health care Latham, Terry, and Tiberi get zeros from organizations like the American Public Health Association (http://www.apha.org/), the AIDS Action Council (http://www.aidsaction.org/), the American Nurses Association (http://www.nursingworld.org/), and the National Rural Health Association (http://www.ruralhealthweb.org/).

Justice.

On justice and the entire question of what kind of country we want to be, Latham, Terry, and Tiberi have scored zero with the ACLU (http://www.aclu.org/) and the Human Rights Campaign (http://www.hrc.org/), although I acknowledge that Latham recently moved up and delivered (for him) a very good year for peoples' rights with eighteen percent from the ACLU and five percent from the Human Rights Campaign.

People Who Work for a Living.

As to labor, Latham, Terry, and Tiberi have received scores of one hundred percent from the Business-Industry Political Action Committee (http://www.bipac.org/page.asp?g=bipac_new&content=startpage) and of zero percent from organizations like the Communications Workers of America (http://www.cwa-union.org/), the United Food and Commercial Workers (http://www.ufcw.org/), and Workplace Fairness (http://www.workplacefairness.org/).  

Us v. Them.

On matters of us v. them Latham, Terry, and Tiberi scored zero with Citizens for Tax Justice (http://www.ctj.org/).

Conclusion.

I nominate the Iowa Fourth, the Nebraska Second, and the Ohio Twelfth for very early consideration by bloggers and internet activists thinking about 2010.

wayoutonthesteppe :: Three who have to go.
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Agreed
If we keep focusing on taking out red-district Republicans, we're just going to end up with more Blue Dogs (like Bobby Bright, who captured a district McCain won 63-36).

IA-04, NE-02, and OH-12 are very capable of producing progressive Democrats.  So are PA-06, PA-15, FL-10, IL-10, NJ-02, VA-10, and WA-08.  Now, we hit a couple of them hard last time and came up short, but the others we practically ignored.


NE-02
We blew our chance there in 2008.  No excuse for Obama winning that district but not our congressional candidate.

Obama-Terry voters?
WTF?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Seriously
Who knew they actually existed?  

[ Parent ]
Gotta give Terry credit
pretty smart guy for a Nebraska Republican.  Remember the Obama-Terry signs?  He knew what was coming and ran accordingly.  The benefit of incumbency saved him.  In an open seat we would have won it.

[ Parent ]
That's what I've been thinking
on Bush-Boxer voters in 2004. Boxer ran 4% ahead of Kerry so they apparently exist. Why, I have no idea.

My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Incumbents
people knew them, they didn't pay attention to much else.

I knew a lot of people who voted for Bush in 2004 simply because they felt they didn't know Kerry or believed the lies about him.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens


[ Parent ]
Yeah.
I guess it's a "go with the devil you know" mindset.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Same thing will happen in 2012
A lot of people will vote for Obama in 2012 because they don't trust the Republican.

[ Parent ]
Heh.
Some people's voting patterns just don't make a lot of sense, I guess.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

[ Parent ]
I was shocked on election night
when it came out that there really were a good number of Obama-Terry voters.  I really thought that was a joke.

[ Parent ]
Well, I'll give Mr. Terry due credit.
Joke was on us that time.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Mike Fahey, maybe?
According to the all knowing Wiki:

"On July 29, 2008, Fahey announced he would not be seeking reelection for Mayor of Omaha in 2009. This has fueled speculation of a possible 2010 run for congress."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M...

28, Unenrolled, MA-08


[ Parent ]
NE-Sen
Wasn't he a rumored candidate before Johanns stepped in?

[ Parent ]
Yes, he was
He's widely considered one of the stronger Dems in the state.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
Best of Luck with Tiberi
Tiberi has been a target of bloggers, and especially of folks doing the kind of analysis that you're doing here, for years. Nobody in the netroots has worked harder than I have to show this guy the door, with absolutely zero success. He is a popular incumbent who is legendary for his constituent services. Local media loves him, and repeatedly refer to him as 'bi-partisan' and 'moderate,' despite his role as Boehner's lieutenant and actual, um, voting record.

He goes sharply negative in the last ten days of campaigns.

His victories have come over a popular local Dem when both were after Kasich's open seat, twice against a nobody whose total campaign expenditures between the two campaigns were in the 4 figures, once against a former congressman who put more than a million dollars of his own money into the race, and once against a local businessman with a Ph.D and ties to the Al Gore Climate Initiative. Tiberi's margin of victory has been remarkably stable across all 5 campaigns. None have been close. The demographic trendlines are not favorable, with the 12th being the only Ohio CD with significant population growth this decade, and most of that increase coming in the uber-Republican exurbia of Delaware County.

It is true that the district went for Kerry and Obama, and Dems up and down the ticket have done well here, except for Tiberi's opponents. If you want to change that, you're going to have to actually change the relationship Tiberi has with voters in the district, which will be tough if you're A) not in the district, and B)using tools that don't reach senior citizens or religious African-Americans (two likely sources of Obama-Tiberi votes).

It's possible that the recession and ensuing stimulus/budget debates will trip him up here, and I'll be keeping my eyes open (how do you think I found this post?), but defeating Tiberi is going to take a lot more than simply leveraging the demographics and PVI of the 12th- It's been tried more than once, in very different ways, with very similar results. I must admit I'm putting my mental energy into redistricting, at this point.


No Sacred Cows
When (27 years ago) I was a state party political director, the most important task that was mine alone was recruiting state House candidates to challenge Republican incumbents.  There were a number of Republican incumbents in Democratically-inclined districts who, for very good reasons unique to each individually, were in the "you'll never beat that guy" category.  

One such sacred cow came from one of those rare rural Democratic districts and had been, if I remember correctly, the state's farmer of the year.  His wife, as I recall, had been the state's farm wife of the year.  

I recruited a candidate with a nifty profile who was able to gather support from the local Democratic luminaries (notwithstanding their months of naysaying prior to his recruitment).  But on primary election day that candidate was soundly beaten by an older man who kept a keg of beer tapped and at the ready in his living room (and who, in fact, planned and decorated the living room around the kegs' spot), a guy who lived rough and wrote romance novels for a hardscrabble living.  

The guy who beat my guy in the primary raised practically nothing for his campaign, although I was ultimately able to get him the equivalent of perhaps five percent of what would then have been seen as minimally adequate.  

The guy who beat my guy in the primary went on to beat the state's farmer of the year.  It seems that many voters believed they would be better represented by the rough-living Democrat than they were then being represented by the farmer of the year.  

We defeated a great many Republican incumbents that year, in part because of my "no sacred cows" approach.


[ Parent ]
Which state
was this in? If you don't mind me asking.

[ Parent ]
Similar story in Texas this year
HD-105. Democratic establishment was behind a young up and comer with a good profile and a good campaign. He was beaten in a primary by a guy who used to be on a small city's council for one term. The guy that won the primary was an older guy who didn't campaign and did very little. Come the general election he lost, but only by 19 votes. It was pure straight ticket voting that almost won this guy a position in the Texas House.

And a 75-75 split in the legislature. Dag.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


[ Parent ]
Is this the race that took forever to get decided?


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Yes.


26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
An obscure reference by way of a final word.
It only now occurs to me that some Swing State Project readers might get it if I mention that the rare rural Democratic district that elected the rough-living Democrat over the farmer-of-the-year Republican incumbent included  the little town where the Appeal to Reason was published in its heyday.

[ Parent ]

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