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Guessing Game

by: James L.

Thu Jan 22, 2009 at 4:32 PM EST


Charlie Cook, a longtime friend of the Swing State Project, picks up this very interesting piece of chatter:

A fellow who oversees lobbying in all 50 states for a major corporation recently told me about a certain Republican U.S. senator up for re-election in 2010, someone generally regarded as fairly conservative who might face a serious challenge from a very conservative fellow Republican. The incumbent has not been tainted by scandal, has never embarrassed himself by making a major mistake, is highly regarded in Washington, and is considered a very effective senator.

Who might we be talking about here? The only GOP Senators discussed as potential recipients of a serious primary challenge thus far have been Arlen Specter and David Vitter, and Cook is clearly not talking about them here (indeed, he explicitly rules Specter out in the next paragraph). Any guesses?
James L. :: Guessing Game
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Guessing Game | 86 comments
McCain


25, Male, Democrat, TX-26
Johnny Isakson?

Thats my thought
[ Parent ]
Guessing Game
Murkowski.....Palin is going to challenge her
It's a guy
The incumbent has not been tainted by scandal, has never embarrassed himself by making a major mistake, is highly regarded in Washington, and is considered a very effective senator.

Cook said "himself."

[ Parent ]
scandal-plagued, and more
I wouldn't be surprised if Murkowski gets a challenge from Palin, but this is clearly not the race he's referring to, for several reasons aside from the gender issue.  For one thing, this one wouldn't be a surprise to anyone, we're all half-expecting it already and it's gotten a lot of press.  For another, Murkowski is not a stable well-respected Senator widely seen as doing a good job.  And finally, her very appointment was a major scandal that not only partly cost the Governor his job but actually led to legislation passing to take the appointment power away from the Governor.
[ Parent ]
Bennett (UT)

...
And it will be Chaffetz.  Who will also challenge the senator to a leg-wrestling match.
[ Parent ]
McCain comes to mind,
becuase Lisa Murkowski is not considered fairly conserviative, and she was appointed in scandal, and is not a very effective senator. But it could also Richard Shelby, or Rob Bennett in Utah. Johnny Isakson is probably the most likely though, Sonny Perdue doesn't want to ride off into the sunset.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
I really think it's Isakson
He ran as a pro-choice candidate in living memory.  
[ Parent ]
Very possible
Isakson was expected to leave his seat to run for Governor but abruptly changed course and announced he's running for re-election.  He's been a solid conservative in the Senate.  No idea why the right would bother challenging him.
[ Parent ]
The only other possibility
who seems to fit the definition is Bennett.  
[ Parent ]
that's just waht the thing says
a resected, fairly conservative senator will get a strong primary challenge, also one with no history of controversy. The only people I can think of who fit the bill are Bennett and Isakson, and Perdue seems like the more ready made and more serious priamry challenger to him. That one would be a real shoot off.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
he's got gotten a 0
from Abortion groups all five years he's been in the senate.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Hmm if there really was a primary challenge...
I'd love to see a top tier Democrat jump into the mix and hopefully make inroads with the disaffected Republicans from the primary. Ideas for those kind of GA Democrats include Jim Marshall, John Barrow and Jim Butler (a "super attorney" from Columbus).  

Support Russell Edwards and defeat Paul Broun in 2010 (btw I work here)
[ Parent ]
Considered very effective?
Well, I guess that rules out Burr...
Highly regarded and very effective
Well that rules out Burr, Vitter, Bunning, Coburn, DeMint, and Thune.

He also says the person is a "he", so that rules out Murkowski and isn't Arlen Specter.

Has to be one of the following: Shelby (AL), McCain (AZ), Isakson (GA), Grassley (IA), Gregg (NH) or Bennett (UT).  I'm not even going to try to guess.

not Grassley
keyword is "serious challenge" and no Iowa Republican could or would go agaisnt Grassley. I guess Sununu could challenge Gregg, but that would be the only serious challenge, and seems unlikely. McCain has not been uncontroversial, so mark him out. Shelby's a longtime powerhouse and has 12 million dollars in the bank...but? I'd say it was either Gov. Bob Riley against Shelby, or Gov. Perdue against Isakson.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Guessing Game
This would be Bunning. GOP is terrified of losing this seat.
Would we characterize Bunning as "very effective"?


Male, 22, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
Yeah, I don't think it could be Bunning.
No one regards him as effective.
[ Parent ]
Would we even charactize him as "sane"?

[ Parent ]
He's Extremely Conservative
Even for Republican senators.  I can't see him facing a challenge from the right.
[ Parent ]
Bob Smith?
Could it be Bob Smith challenging Judd Gregg? I know Smith (last I checked, anyway) lives in Florida now, but perhaps hed come back home and challenge Gregg.

Maybe these are possibilities: Palin against Murkowski, Rep. Steve King against Grassley, Roy Moore against Shelby, Bill Sali against Mike Crapo...

Shelby is possible
He's pretty strongly conservative but can show a bit of the old school southern populist streak that right-wingers hate.  I'd forgotten about Roy Moore.  He probably got a lesson in humility from the thrashing Governor Riley gave him in the 2006 primary.
[ Parent ]
Since when?
Shelby has been the biggest voice for union-busting in Detroit, save maybe Vitter.
[ Parent ]
Anything with Bob Smith = WIN.
He is quite the character.  
[ Parent ]
Grassley is my best guess
Charles Grassley would certainly fit everything in Cook's description.

Steve King would fit the bill as a "very conservative fellow Republican" - and he's the kind of true-believing nutjob who would try to take out a conservative incumbent like Grassley in a primary.

It would be odd
That King would pass on Harkin in 2008 and go after likely a tougher target in Grassley.  Possible but unlikely.
[ Parent ]
Hope its Grassley
Maybe this is just noise to get Grassley to retire, then we can run a cup of coffee against King.
[ Parent ]
Have a Democrat ready to go
Let's just make sure that if it's in a state we could put in play, that there is a viable Democrat to run.
Grassley
Gregg's most likely challenger, Sununu, is more moderate.  Scratch that one.

Grassley is old and the religious right has a pretty good sized following in Iowa.  Huckabee won the caucuses after all.  Steve King would be the winger IMO and he sure is a nut job.

Unlike many of the others, Grassley can easily be labeled as effective.  Unlike Specter, he can also be labeled a conservative.  It is small town business conservative, though.

No he isn't
Sununu's Senate record was well to the right of Gregg.  Not saying there's any chance he's talking about sununu.
[ Parent ]
Progressive Punch
Progressive Punch scores were much higher for Sununu last session (15.95) to IIRC 6.92 for Gregg.
[ Parent ]
Grassley
Steve King would get crushed in a primary against Grassley. While he might be able to carry Republicans in Western Iowa, his base, he would be crushed in Eastern and Central Iowa and would be better served to run for Governor in 2010 when he can run for an open primary. King would be insane to run against Grassley.

This is not to say that King is any bit sane.

I just don't think that Cook is discussing Grassley. I would guess it would be Isakson or Bennett (Wasn't Bennett discussed as a possible retiree?).

I can't wait to find out who the mysterious senator-- I hope it is Grassley or Gregg!  

[ Parent ]
Isakson is a major candidate.
Fairly conservative but just moderate enough to piss off some wingnuts.

Not tainted my scandal.

No major mistakes (other than his annoying "Rock the boat, Johnny" ads when he was running for Governor).

Has taken the lead on some issues.

The fact that there was talk of him stepping down to run for Governor may have attracted some potential candidates who may decide to go for it anyways.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

Burr?


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
DeMint?
Might explain his Clinton confirmation vote.
[ Parent ]
No way
He's one of the most conservative Senators in the country.  No way it's DeMint.
[ Parent ]
Agreed
If someone in SC wanted to play this game, they would have gone after the (comparatively) moderate Sen. Graham.

22, Democrat, AZ-08
[ Parent ]
my guess
is Isakson. His vote for the bailout didn't go over well with the Republican base in Georgia, and I could see some wacko like Lynn "10 Commandments" Westmoreland taking a shot at him.
[ Parent ]
Lynn "Barack Obama is uppity" Westmoreland, you mean?
What an uppity congressman, thinking of running for Senate.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Surpised no one has mentioned Thune.
Rounds wants in the Senate bad but couldnt run against Johnson because of the stroke.
Funny that was my next suggestion

[ Parent ]
Doubt it
I'm not even sure Rounds wanted it badly.  The talk I heard before Johnson's unfortunate medical issues was that he was almost certain to pass.  In any case Thune is another rock solid conservative.  He may not be one of the outspoken crazies like Inhofe or Vitter, but his record is just as far right.
[ Parent ]
I could totally see JD Hayworth go after McCain

Ironically
That might have worked in years past where McCain pretended to be a moderate.  His Presidential campaign may have been a trainwreck but it did consolidate conservatives in his corner.
[ Parent ]
I'm not so sure
They never really got in his corner - it was all about Palin. If he goes back to being the moderate "maverick" (signs of this already) that could tempt someone to pull the trigger and run.
[ Parent ]
...and then like two seconds after Election Day, he's back to praising Dems/scolding his own party.
His honeymoon w/ those people did not last long I'm guessing.
[ Parent ]
Exactly
He didn't even wait that long. His concession was quite impressive in that regard. Remember his reaction to the booing?
[ Parent ]
or Shadegg for that matter.
That's probably even more likely since he was openly musing last year about how he wanted to be a Senator.
That would be sweet. Maybe Dems will finally start taking this race serious if Johnny Mac has to completely abandon his "maverick" image to get out of the primary. Are you listening Phil Gordon and Gabby Giffords?

22, Democrat, AZ-08
[ Parent ]
speaking of primaries...
Illinois State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias is holding conversations with leading Illinois Democrats in preparation for a possible candidacy, according to a Democratic operative familiar with his decision-making process.

"He's been talking to a lot of Democrats in Illinois who believe that this seat is gone is if Burris is the nominee. If it's Mark Kirk or a rich Republican, we've got to hold this seat. That's enough to encourage him to take a very serious look," said the operative.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/...


Good
Hopefully the president (I really enjoyed typing that!) backs him or at the very least can get Burris to step aside. He can update his mausoleum now and should just be happy with two years.  
[ Parent ]
Obama
should profer an ambassadorship to some nice vacation-nation in two years; another line for the monument.
[ Parent ]
Hmmm...vacation-nations?
How about Barbados or some Caribbean nation? Or maybe New Zealand?

Lincoln Chafee should also get an ambassadorship somewhere nice too. For some reason, I just see him as the ambassadorial type.

[ Parent ]
Why do all
the unpopular black Senators from Illinois end up Ambassador to New Zealand?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C...

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Interesting
McCain, Grassley, Gregg or Isakson seem like the obvious possibilities.  McCain seems like the most likely candidate for a primary but does he fit the description? I'm not sure Isakson has been around enough to make him fit too well also. I can't really imagine someone would take Gregg on in a primary so I'm thinking it may be Grassley.

King vs Grassley?

Draft King!

Senate Guru's thought
My first reaction is that it has to be the Club for Growth going after Iowa's Chuck Grassley.

I remember reading that conservatives don't like a compromiser like Grassley as ranking member of the powerful Finance Committee.

I don't know if (or immediately think that) GOP Congresscritter Steve King is the guy who will take on Grassley, but I would imagine that the Club for Growth could find someone.

Check out the Guru's blog at http://www.senateguru.com/

Does Senate Guru like his chicken spicy?

[ Parent ]
Here's the article I alluded to
[ Parent ]
Bennet of Utah
There's the conservative wing of the Utah GOP and then there's the batshit insane wing of the Utah GOP.  Bennet (and Orrin Hatch, for that matter) are of the former.  So was former Rep. Chris Cannon, successfully primaried out last election.

I don't think serious challenges are possible to McCain, Grassley, or Gregg.

Isakson is an interesting possibility, one of the congressmen may decide they'd rather leave the powerless GOP minority for a slightly less powerless minority in the Senate.

My first thought was Bennett
though people have convinced me to stick Isakson in front in my mental ranking.

Also, it's BenneTT, not Michael Bennet (D-CO).

Perhaps Cannon might make a run at Bennett?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
My Guess is Grassley.
There is a big civil war within the Iowa GOP and while Grassley hasn't exactly jumped to the defense of the moderate side he isn't seen by the conservatives as one of them.  More importantly Grassley serious annoyed a lot of Christian conservatives by investigating the tax exempt status of more than a few wingnut churches.

He's certainly a conservative but no yes man who has had no problem defying his party in the past.

I'll go with McCain challenged by Jeff Flake
Flake being a far-right anarcho-capitalist wingnut.
McCain is a perfect target for Ron Paul Nation
Didn't Ron Paul pour his excess campaign money into the Campaign for Liberty (http://www.campaignforliberty.com/) in order to promote his views within the Republican Party?  It seems like Jeff Flake would be the perfect candidate and McCain the perfect target for the Paulites.  McCain isn't wildly popular in Arizona, and they could portray him as a sell-out, a loser, and a turn-coat on immigration.  I'm sure many bitter Republicans would love to see McCain go.
[ Parent ]
Isakson
Process of elimination:

1.  Regarded as fairly conservative, but apparently not sufficiently conservative.  This eliminates Specter (not regarded by Rs as even fairly conservative and Cook eliminates him as well) and Bunning, Coburn, DeMint, and Crapo (universally regarded as very conservative).  Probably also Burr.

2.  Not been tainted by scandal.  Definitely not Vitter.  Maybe not Murkowski.

3.  Highly regarded and considered effective.  Lots of fuzziness here, but definitely eliminates Bunning (again).

4.  Must be sufficiently vulnerable that someone could mount a "serious challenge."  To my mind, this eliminates Gregg, Grassley, McCain, Shelby, Thune, and Bennett.  They all have good approval ratings statewide.  Except for Bennett, Democrats would have excellent pick up opportunities if any of theses guys were primaried and each is almost certainly the strongest R candidate.  So, I hope it's one of these guys.

Isakson is the only one left.  He's definitely conservative, but not that conservative for a state like Georgia, so I see room for a serious challenger from the right and there have to be lots of potentially serious Rs in GA who want a promotion.  He's not particularly popular so he would be a tempting target for a challenge.

Redstate Thread on Cook Article
Redstaters disagree with Cook and think their electoral  problems are not being conservative enough.  Lots of fun.

http://www.redstate.com/erick/...

Shh!
Don't wake them up.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
That is delicious
They're actually talking Lamar! as being not nearly conservative enough.
Wow.
I think we're gonna be fine.

22, Democrat, AZ-08
[ Parent ]
This quote is priceless
"According to the 2008 exit polls, 34% of Americans considered themselves conservative, compared to ~22% who considered themselves liberal. The rest considered themselves independent. That means a conservative starts off with a larger base and only needs to pick off about 17% of self-described independents/moderates to advance their agenda."

Wrong on so many levels.

[ Parent ]
Ya
That wasn't how Obama and congressional Dems cruised to big wins in 2006 and 2008.  It was through reaching out to young people and others disenchanted with "politics as usual" that repubs have practiced for more than a decade.  The whole "reaching out to the middle" stuff is D.C. conventional wisdom garbage.
[ Parent ]
Bringing new people into the process
Exciting core constituencies yes but also winning the middle. The problem Repubs have is that the middle has run away from them screaming. And Erickson's math is terrible.
[ Parent ]
McCain, Isakson and Grassley in that order ...
Would be my guess of who it is most likely to be.    
I would bet on Charles Grassley
As soon as I read this post, I thought "Charles Grassley."

After reading dozens of post, I'm more convinced it's Charles Grassley.  Why?  I would be stunned if Charles Cook regarded any of the Southerners elected in 2004 as "highly regarded"  or "effective."  They're basically dolts.

Who in the world ever heard of Johnny Isakson and why would anyone care if someone challenged him?  It's not worth Cook's time -- or certainly not his surprise, which is the tenor of the story.

McCain is not regarded as conservative by Republicans, Shelby has embarrassed himself in regards to his role overseeing intelligence services and is too conservative for the profile, Gregg is more conservative than "fairly conservative" and no one cares about Bennett of Utah because a Republican can't lose in that state anyway.

In Iowa, though, a Grassley defeat in a primary probably means a Democratic pickup.

I would bet on Charles Grassley.

Shalom,
ZWrite

Please!
As soon as i saw the post i crossed my fingers and said "Grassley vs. King?"
[ Parent ]
Thoughts
Gregg and Shelby are not that conservative compared to the R caucus as a whole--they're probably left of the median; I know hard to believe, but try ordering them by rank.

I don't put too much stock in the "highly regarded" or "effective" descriptions.  They sound too much like the polite sort of things that mainstream commentators say about just almost everyone.  That's just my impression.

Even though I don't think Grassley is the most likely, he, Bennett, McCain, and Burr would probably be my next most likely picks in order.   And I would love to be wrong--Grassley's safe in the general election, but iowa's a tossup or even lean D if he loses the primary

[ Parent ]
My Two Cents....
I'd bet on Isakson. By Georgia right-wing standards, he is not authentically conservative. Plus, there are a lot of GA Congressmen who have been in the house for a little while, and would be itching to move up the ladder. Westmoreland, Gingrey, Deal, and especially Broun come to mind.

"You share your young with the wolves of the nation, there's nothing left til you pray for salvation."

--Black Rebel Motorcycle Club

"American X"
Gingrich is a possibility
With the Governor's race saturated, they may decide to go elsewhere.  I may have to rethink my position that we should ignore the Senate race here in Georgia to focus on the Governor.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
I'll be shocked if it's not Johnny Isakson.
My money is on Johnny Isakson getting a challenge in the GOP primary. Isakson has always been a moderate. His consevative credentials was called into question in 2004 by Mac Collins & Hermain Cain, who also ran for the GOP nomination back in 2004. He is conservative on some issues, but still is fairly moderate. I think his challenge will come from someone currently in the State Legislature. But if had to pick a congressman who would challenge him, it would be Westmoreland or Kingston who is also rumored to run for governor in 2010. But one thing for sure, even if he does get a challenge in the primary & goes on to the general election, he will have a strong, credible democratic challenger either Thurbert Baker, Jim Marshall, Jim Butler, or possibly Sanford Bishop, who is rumored to be eyeing a gubernatorial bid in 2010 in addition to the U.S. Senate.
If he's referring to Burr
then the challenger is Patrick McHenry. McHenry has been talking about this exact scenario for the last few years. Burr is not doing well in early polling against likely Democrats (Moore and Cooper), so I'm sure Lil Pat is seriously considering a run.

Of course Burr is neither highly regarded or very effective so I'm guessing this isn't the cannibalism to which Cook is referring.

After Joe Arpaio's easy reelection in AZ...
I heard that Andrew Thomas (the other anti-immigrant wingnut in Maricopa County) will run in the primary. He does have a shot, since that is the one issue most right-wingers hate McCain for.
Guessing Game
Given the hard right nature of the Republican Party in Iowa, I am going to pick a dark horse: Grassley
After reading all of your great thoughts my conclusion is that its
Bennett of Utah.  In typical Cook fashion there must be some disappointment side to the rumor and that is that it takes place in a state where we have no bench and Mattherson doesn't have the balls to risk his now safe house seat to take advantage of a primary bloodied and divided Utah GOP.
Crapo?
Here's a name no one has discussed: Mike Crapo from Idaho.

He's very conservative like most people in his state.

I think he's pretty effective and has a good reputation. The most embarrassing thing about him is probably his last name...

Is there any reason to regard him as not sufficiently conservative?
Or is Larry Craig trying to make a comeback?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Sali challeging Crapo
is probably the one that most people would say is no surprise since Sali is an "absolute idiot".  The problem with that though is I doubt Cook would have thought it notable.
[ Parent ]
Guessing Game | 86 comments

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