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Cook has 2010 ratings up

by: Marcus

Fri Nov 14, 2008 at 2:57 PM EST


Nothing big here, just want to point out that Charlie Cook has his 2010 ratings up already.

http://www.cookpolitical.com/

(I wanted to make this a quick hit, but couldn't figure out how.)
Marcus :: Cook has 2010 ratings up
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Cook has 2010 ratings up | 37 comments
Can we get them without an account?
Or can someone post them here?

20 M MD-01
Yes
Just click on the senate and house tabs at the top.

They're available both in graphical and text form.

You need an account to read any of Cook's analysis.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
except the house ratings are still from 2008
And Quick Hits is an Admin-only deal.  
[ Parent ]
The map is updated
Cook hasn't put up the data in table form yet.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
My mistake. You're right.

[ Parent ]
Senate
http://www.cookpolitical.com/c...

No Dem worse than "Likely D", Martinez, Bunning, Vitter "Tossup", Specter "Leans R", the rest "Likely" or "Solid R".

I have a lot of respect for Charlie Cook
and he's a great friend of SSP, but... Vitter at "Tossup" seems like a major reach to me -- the last time I checked, Dems were getting creamed in Louisiana (even Landrieu could only hit 52% this year), while Vitter's post-Diapergate approvals were still fairly strong. Maybe he's seen polling that we haven't seen, but still... I'm not a believer in that race.

Also, putting Oklahoma (Coburn) at Likely R ahead of Voinovich, Burr, Gregg, and Bond, is, uh, weird to me. I like all four of those races better than Oklahoma's potential.

[ Parent ]
I think LA will be competitive but "Tossup" definitely is a stretch
Agreed on the others. Burr in particular should be "Likely". Interesting that he thinks Grassley might retire.
[ Parent ]
Burr should be "Lean" at best
No one who's held that seat has been reelected to it since 1968, and Burr is likely to face a top-tier challenger. My personal choices would be either Congressman Brad Miller or AG Roy Cooper. Both could clean Burr's clock, as he is even less popular than Liddy Dole was.
[ Parent ]
got to agree with the Jedi here
Burr should definetly be a lean,  we will obviously give him a challenge this time.  

The only logic I can see in this is that we have no obvious candidate.  While its possible Cooper could run, there is no garauntee that he will be looking for a new job as he isn't term limited.  Its very possible that we could Florida 15 ourselves and come up with no good candidate.  On the other hand, in Oklahoma, we have term limited Governor Brad Henry.  While we have the same deal with term limited Janet Napolitano in AZ, there has been speculation about a position in an Obama cabinet, something I haven't heard about with Gov Henry.  

As for Vitter and Landrieu.  Landrieu got 52%, which is low, but when you consider she did it against a former Democrat, thats not all that surprising.  I would not be surprised to find out that a decent % of Dems voted for Kennedy.  My guess on Vitter, is that Cazayoux will run and he will be able to give Vitter quite a run for his money.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

[ Parent ]
Kennedy might challenge Vitter in the primary!
I heard that rumor
[ Parent ]
I dont know how he can have CA-GOV and HI-GOV as "tossup"
Republicans have nobody to run in either of these races.  They should be lean Dem.  
Woah
Blago "Leans D" must surely mean Cook expects him to lose the primary. Isn't O'Malley having problems that might justify a lesser rating than "Solid"? And Crist and Perdue seem less likely to be competitive than Texas and South Dakota if Steph Herseth runs.
[ Parent ]
Maryland is a solidly Democratic state
I dont see any Republican beating O'Malley.  
[ Parent ]
Well I wouldn't expect him to lose
But I was reading he had terrible approvals and Steele was thinking of running so maybe a "Likely" would be more prudent.
[ Parent ]
Approval of 4%
Why on earth would you think Blago has any chance of winning a primary?
[ Parent ]
I don't
Cook doesn't seem so sure though.
[ Parent ]
MN should be toss-up at best
Pawlenty barely won in 2006 against an opponent who completely blew it with like 4 days to go and was looking at high single digit deficeits in the polls.

The entire DFL A-list will be running in 2010 and all are better than Hatch as candidates.  Any of them can beat Pawlenty I'd say.

And, Pawlenty isn't even rumored to be running for re-election anymore  (President in 2012) and Ramstad is apparently being talked about as the new drug czar.  http://mnpublius.com/2008/11/w...

After those 2, the GOP has absolutely no one else to run except obscure state reps and state senators.

[ Parent ]
HI-Gov
Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona will be the Republican nominee, and he stands at least a decent shot of riding Lingle's coattails in.  However, it is notable that Lingle has seen her party lose like 2/3 of their already miniscule caucus in the state legislature.  Literally decimated, they're down to only 2 out of 25 in the Senate and 6 out of 51 in the House.

Aiona probably faces Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann (D).  We should pick this up, but it's gonna be tougher than one would think.

[ Parent ]
Won't it be a mere ceremonial win?
When Dems have close to 100% of state legislature seats in Hawaii does a republican Governor have any real power at all?
[ Parent ]
There's a wayward faction in the state legislature
not like in other states where conservative Dems actually ally with the Republicans, for the most part they just ignore the Republicans, but Dem unity isn't as solid as one would think, and they do fail to override many of Lingle's vetoes.  I'm more concerned with keeping the Senate seats in Democratic hands (both Senators are 84 years old) and letting the GOP build a credible statewide bench is dangerous.
[ Parent ]
Interesting...
I like Cook, and I know he's got his reasons why he placed certain races the way he did, but...

(1)North Carolina is not solidly behind Burr.  In fact, Burr may be as unpopular as Dole.  This has "tossup" potential.

(2) Ohio's race will be much closer than in 2004.  I would place this in the "lean category".

(3)Missouri has the potential to be close, too.  Not that long ago in a survey Kit Bond was not doing well against some potential matchups.  I saw this on wikipedia.

(4) Colorado may be a "lean" instead of "likely".  Although Colorado has become more blue, I don't know if Salazar will be a shoo-in for this race.

(5) Iowa's race really depends on Grassley returning to the senate.  I doubt he's enjoying the fact that he's in the minority party.  If Grassley runs, Iowa is safe.  If not, Iowa has the potential to switch to the Dems.

Overall, Cook's done a good job.  Just too early to really know how these races will turn out.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

If Grassley retires
That Iowa seat should be the number one targetted race.  It's definitely winnable and we would have a much better shot at holding it long term than FL, OH, NC, KY, KS, OK, LA, or MO.  (any of the ones basically we perceive as vulnerable except for PA, they are on equal footing).  

And I'd say AZ and IA are really the only two races that absolutely cannot be competitive without either a retirement in both seats, or with AZ the second option is Napolitano.  But if none of those happen, we wont be picking up either.

[ Parent ]
Vilsack
He'd be a strong favorite for an open senate seat in Iowa if he ran.
[ Parent ]
Cook's early ratings are always weird
I don't pay much attention to them until about 6 months prior to election day.
Cilizza
Chris Cilizza has his first comments on the 2010 Senate races over at the Washington Post site.

2010 has started before 2008's races closed (CNN lists 5 House and 3 Senate races as still undedcided).  What does Perriello have to do to get listed as a winner in VA-5?  No otes have been posted since November 10 for the two main candidates (IIRC some write-ins were posted on Nov.11).

VA-05
Totals are certified on 11/24, then the candidates have 10 days to file challenges.  I guess VA-05 is close enough that AP etc. are waiting for the certified totals?
[ Parent ]
2010 Tennessee Governor's race
I draft Tim McGraw

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T...

He's known to be a Democrat, from Tennessee, has an acknowledged interest in running for office some day, is a country music legend, has supermodel good looks, and would have the best looking wife of any Governor in the country (by far!) in Faith Hill.  

How old are his kids?
I'm pretty sure he's passed up on recent opportunities (2008 Senate) because his kids hadn't grown up enough yet for him to go through the hoops of running statewide in a big state.  
[ Parent ]
A website I found
Says his kids are between 6 and 11.  But who knows.  Getting to live and work in your own state seems like it would allow for more family time than traveling concert to concert.  But ya, if he does run for office it would probably be many years away.

[ Parent ]
My Early Senate Ratings
Dem Seats:
Likely D
CA-Boxer
CO-Salazar
NV-Reid
ND-Dorgan
WA-Murray
WI-Feingold
HI-Inouye

Rep Seats:
Tossup
KY-Bunning
FL-Martinez
NC-Burr
OH-Voinovich - He will get primaried if he even runs

Lean R
LA-Vitter
KS-Open
PA-Specter - Probably will get primaried if he runs
OK-Coburn
AZ-McCain
NH-Gregg

Likely R
IA-Grassley - Placed here due to liklihood of retirement
MO-Bond

Hard time.
I have a hard time believing that Oklahoma will vote any Dem into a federal office, even with a popular Governor as the nominee.

Same thing with Kansas. I just dont see Kathleen beating either of those assholes.

[ Parent ]
Probably so
I'm more optimistic about Kansas than Oklahoma.  Oklahoma is one of the few states trending badly against us.  That was very evident on election day 2008.

Kansas on the other hand has some potential, albeit not much.  Sebelius could win a Senate race under the right circumstances.  It looks like the GOP will end up having a brutal primary, where Sebelius would not.  In addition there is an ongoing civil war within the KS GOP between moderates and nutters.  Either way I hope she at least gives it a shot.  

Hopefully Parkinson runs for KS Governor and Brownback stays out of that race.  Parkinson should be a very strong Dem nominee for Governor, but I doubt he can beat Brownback if he runs on the GOP side.

[ Parent ]
i've been floating the idea of obama
appointing a specter, mccain, or gregg to something to open up a democratic leaning seat and burnish his bipartisan cred, but how about grassley?  i know nothing about him, but does he have any thoughtful, if not progressive positions.

vilsack could win a competitive open race (mark warner of ia?) but an appointment is oh so much better!  

Grassley is mostly conservative, but not overly so
But he's known as one of the last of the "elder statesmen" in the Senate, in the same league as people like Dick Lugar and the retiring John Warner.  He is from the old school and isn't overly partisan, willing to work with Dems to get things done.  He's very good on agriculture issues and would probably make a very good Secretary of Agriculture.  I think he's more likely than not to retire in 2010 anyway, so it might be worth a shot offering him the job.
[ Parent ]
I'd prefer
that Obama name Olympia Snowe to, say, be Secretary of Commerce. That way, Maine's Dem governor, John Baldacci, can appoint a D to replace him. Granted that would lead to a special election in 2010, but that would be a seat that onece we have it, we'll keep it.

I doubt Grassley will be appointed to anything. I also doubt that he will run for reelection. He's getting up there in years and is not to keen on spending his golden years in the minority party.

[ Parent ]
In general, I'd say
Let's not game the system for our own political gain, after we've objected to the Republicans doing it so badly.  Go after nuts like Chambliss first, at the very least.  I feel that the idea of one-party rule is still not very well-received, even if it be a progressive area of the country such as New England.

Not to mention the funny phenomenon where, in a one-party-dominated area like the state commonwealth of Massachusetts, sometimes the Republicans are more liberal than the Democrats.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Cook has 2010 ratings up | 37 comments

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