This race should be good.

CQ politics just moved this race from Leans Republican to No Clear Favorite. I think this is the perfect time to take Shays out we should focus the energy Obama has in Connecticut towards Jim Himes. Connecticut doesn't really have any other federal races that aren't predetermined so the CDP and a super majority of Connecticut Democratic volunteers should be sent out to CT-04.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

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by: D in FL @ Sat Jul 26, 2008 at 22:42:46 PM UTC

Hmm

What are the chances that a big influx of Democrat volunteers from around CT go to CT-04? Maybe we should send letters to other prominent CT Democrat politicians to get them to publicly support and advocate people going to help Jim Himes.

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by: Hamtree @ Sat Jul 26, 2008 at 23:32:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Would help, this definately is "The Race" of Connecticut.

Larson, Delauro, Courtney, Murphy and Dodd should be on the ground hitting Shays hard along with as many people as we can get from the Obama network in Connecticut.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

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by: D in FL @ Sun Jul 27, 2008 at 00:25:52 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Already happening

Google "hilltop brigade"

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by: Gabe @ Sun Jul 27, 2008 at 01:26:17 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Same thing is happening in NV-03

Delta Dem voter registration is up ~20K over the Repubs in NV-03 since 2006 election.  We are looking good in NV-03.

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by: IvanE @ Sat Jul 26, 2008 at 23:57:25 PM UTC

What about NV-02?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Sun Jul 27, 2008 at 07:25:38 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

NV-02 probably isn't so promising

And if McCain picks Romney as his VP that is one district where our chances plummet.  There are a lot of Mormons there.

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by: ChadInFL @ Sun Jul 27, 2008 at 18:22:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Call me optimistic

But this race leans Democratic right now, NOT Republican.  Shays is like Connecticut's version of Nick Spano, the ex-NY State Senator from Yonkers, who hung on for cycle after cycle before the demographics and ideology of his district finally doomed him two years ago.

Himes IMO is a 2-1 favorite to turn New England's House delegation 100% Democratic.

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by: dpinzow1 @ Sun Jul 27, 2008 at 22:41:43 PM UTC

As I've said before . . .

. . . that's assuming that Carol Shea-Porter hangs onto NH-1.

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by: The Caped Composer @ Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 02:11:55 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Shays vs Himes

As a resident of the district I can tell you that Shays is in trouble, yet it has nothing to do with a higher African-American voter turnout in Bridgeport (of all places).  Bridgeport has consistently had one of the lower voter turnouts in the state.  In fact, other cities which are much smaller have higher voter turnout than Bridgeport (Greenwich, Norwalk, and Fairfield).  Shays problem may be with Hispanics who compose 13% of the electorate here.  In Bridgeport most are Brazilian or Puerto Rican.  Stamford and Norwalk most are Central American.  Shays has adopted a radical approach toward the immigration issue, even wanting to make it a felony to be in the county illegally (of coure....tax cutting Republicans want to make it a felony, so I could only wonder who would be paying for new jails).

However, I have constantly argued that Himes is too liberal for the district.  Lamont did not even win here (actually Lamont didn't win any congressional district in CT).  If elected, Himes will have a battle on his hand come 2010.  I have changed my rating from Leans Dem to Too Close to Call for two reasons:

- Himes has begun running ads on television introducing himself.
- Himes fundraising has been very competitive with Shays.

**Tomorrow I will be posting my most competitive house races from Alabama-Montana.  Unfortunately, I have done a much thorough research process than some of these other pundits.  Lots of surprises in the works.  Look forward tomorrow.  Lots of Republican seats are on the burner.  

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by: antoni @ Sun Jul 27, 2008 at 23:43:22 PM UTC

Confusing

If elected, Himes will have a battle on his hand come 2010.  I have changed my rating from Leans Dem to Too Close to Call for two reasons:

- Himes has begun running ads on television introducing himself.
- Himes fundraising has been very competitive with Shays.

You cite two factors that seem to make this race more competitive for Himes, yet you're moving this race in the opposite direction in your own ratings (from "Leans D" to "Too Close To Call")?

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by: James L. @ Sun Jul 27, 2008 at 23:55:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Reply

No actually from Leans R to Too Close to Call

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by: antoni @ Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 01:12:03 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Follow Up

Sorry for the confusion on that one.  I didn't realize I put a D instead of R.

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by: antoni @ Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 01:13:52 AM UTC

[ Parent ]